First, the overall impact on the economy RMB appreciation is a double-edged sword for China's economy, which has both positive and negative effects. The overall effect of integration has advantages and disadvantages, depending on the "timing", "amplitude" and "frequency" of adjustment. The analysis of favorable and unfavorable impacts is as follows: (1) The favorable impact is 1. Improve the terms of trade. China is entering the era of heavy chemical industry, and its dependence on energy and bulk raw materials is greatly strengthened. Under the background of the current world economic recovery and the depreciation of the US dollar, the prices of energy and raw materials are rising, while the international prices of finished products for export are greatly reduced due to the transfer of production bases of multinational companies. The deterioration of terms of trade leads to the loss of domestic resources, and export commodities are often subject to foreign anti-dumping. In the long run, China will become a poor trading country. The appreciation of RMB will fundamentally change this face. 2. Under the condition of appreciation, inflation is suppressed, and the price of domestic products is not affected, while the price of imported products falls because of the decline of exchange rate, which will eventually drive the price of the whole society to fall, thus achieving the purpose of deflation. In the period of inflation, the appreciation of local currency is undoubtedly a powerful weapon to avoid hyperinflation. It is necessary for a developing country like us to digest the surplus foreign exchange reserves. Increasing the foreign exchange reserves in large quantities is an idle resource and undoubtedly a great waste. Increasing the purchasing power of RMB in the international market through appreciation is undoubtedly an important way to digest excess foreign exchange reserves, which is conducive to absorbing overseas resources and alleviating the bottleneck of domestic resources. 4. Promote the rational allocation of resources. From the perspective of resource allocation, the undervalued RMB exchange rate encourages the export sector, but it is at the expense of restraining the domestic service industry and manufacturing industry. The appreciation of RMB is beneficial to the balanced allocation of resources between tradable and non-tradable sectors. 5. Reduce the interference of foreign exchange on the autonomy of monetary policy. The rapid growth of foreign exchange holdings since 200 1 has made the scale of the central bank's passive investment in the inter-bank foreign exchange market more and more large. In order to ensure a stable money supply and price stability, the central bank has to "hedge" the influence of passive foreign currency open market operations by issuing central bank bills and other active RMB open market operations. This greatly reduces the initiative of RMB open market operation, and the cost of sterilization policy is rising, which will become more and more difficult. 6. Reducing Trade Friction The huge trade surplus accumulated by China is often attacked by domestic political and interest groups in the United States, Europe and Japan, and trade disputes are on the rise. China's frequent anti-dumping lawsuits and other trade disputes in recent years and in the future are all related to this background, and more and more attention is paid to the undervaluation of RMB exchange rate, making RMB appreciation the key to reduce trade friction. (ii) Adverse effects 1. Unemployment will reduce the international competitiveness of products, the appreciation of RMB will lead to a sharp increase in the export price of China products, and China products will lose their price competitiveness. Not only will China not become a "factory of the world", but even the current good manufacturing development will decline. The first direct impact of the manufacturing recession is the rising unemployment rate, which is likely to cause a series of economic, social and political problems. 2. The impact of "hot money" on the financial system is not perfect, and there are few financial instruments used to hedge risks; The central bank has no experience in implementing monetary policy under flexible exchange rate, and its ability needs to be tested; Domestic financial institutions have huge non-performing assets and the financial system is fragile. All these indicate that under the expectation of RMB exchange rate fluctuation, we do not have the ability to resist the impact of a large number of "hot money" on the financial system. 3. Ignore the internal pressure of hidden fiscal deficit on RMB depreciation. Due to the imbalance of domestic finance, including huge bank bad debts, the gap of social security fund, the domestic debt accumulated by the issuance of government bonds, the debt owed by local governments, the great pressure to create jobs and so on. In a sense, these are hidden fiscal deficits. Solving any of these problems implies the internal pressure of RMB depreciation. Before solving these problems, letting the RMB appreciate rashly will lead to a greater depreciation of the RMB in the future, thus aggravating the fluctuation of the exchange rate in the future. 4. To cater to the expectation of speculative capital, creating asset bubbles and RMB appreciation will bring greater appreciation expectations, reduce foreign direct investment in China, attract more short-term capital inflows of indirect investment, create greater external imbalances, increase investment and speculation in real estate and stock markets, and even create false prosperity and bubbles, which will damage the "body" of real estate and stock markets and mislead the economy to develop in an irrational direction.

All the above are official languages. In fact, things imported are cheap and things exported are expensive, which has caused a great impact on domestic enterprises. Then the cost increases, exports decrease, and exports have no advantage. If there is no advantage in exports, the unemployment rate will increase. I have accumulated a lot of foreign exchange (dollars), so I can't use it. The whole world handles dollars here.