Since the beginning of this century, the process of economic globalization has been accelerated, and capital, technology, labor and resources have been reorganized on a large scale around the world, which has led to rapid changes in the international division of labor and large-scale transfer of international industries. The manufacturing industry in developed countries is mainly transferred to China, Southeast Asia and other countries, while the service industry is mainly outsourced to Indian and other countries. The economic growth of developed countries depends more on their advantages in technological innovation, brand design and advanced system. International industrial transfer has greatly promoted global economic growth, but it has also brought new problems. In developed countries, the manufacturing industry is hollowed out, the trade deficit is increasing, and the unemployment problem is intensifying. However, developing countries are worried that economic security cannot be fully guaranteed. International industrial transfer and international trade imbalance have also triggered the rise of trade protectionism in some countries, which has intensified trade friction. International economic restructuring, running-in and adjustment under the background of globalization.
In the tide of economic globalization, each country adapts and competes for its position in the international division of labor with its own resource endowment and economic structure characteristics. At present, the content of international industrial capital flow has changed from the development of primary product resources to the production of manufacturing products. China is rich in labor resources, stable in politics, constantly improving infrastructure, and constantly enhancing the ability to learn labor technology, which has great advantages in manufacturing production; The labor price of developed countries is ten times or even dozens of times that of China, and they have little advantage over China in commodity trade. At present, the primary reason for China's high foreign trade surplus is the pattern of world division of labor and the international economic situation. In 2005, China's economy maintained high growth under macro-control. One of the reasons is that the international economic situation is improving and there is a strong demand for China products in the international market.
Second, the economic adjustment of the United States is the fundamental factor of the instability of the international monetary system.
After World War II, the United States was in a dominant position in the world economy, and the US dollar became the most important international reserve currency. There is triffin's paradox in the international monetary system with the US dollar as the core: the imbalance of US foreign exchange receipts and payments is the source of liquidity of reserve assets of various countries, but the imbalance of US foreign exchange receipts and payments reduces the confidence of other countries in the US dollar, leading to the decline of the status of the US dollar as an international reserve currency; If the balance of US foreign trade is balanced, the liquidity of national reserve assets is reduced and the international monetary system is unstable. Judging from Triffin's dilemma, under the international monetary system with the US dollar as the core, the US dollar will be stable or strong. Only when the technological progress, interest rate level and comprehensive strength of the United States are sufficient to support the US dollar exchange rate and make up for the pressure of its deficit on the US dollar exchange rate will the international monetary system be more stable.
Nearly 60 years after World War II, with the development of international economic competition, the American economy has been constantly adjusting, which has affected the exchange rate of the US dollar and caused turmoil in the financial market. In the 1970s and 1980s, the US trade deficit increased, the international monetary system tended to be diversified, and the proportion of gold, special drawing rights, pounds, marks and yen in foreign exchange reserves of various countries became higher and higher. The market was bearish on the US economy and the US dollar. In the 1990s, the United States made outstanding technological innovations in the fields of information, computer and financial services, and its economy continued to strengthen. Coupled with the great changes in international politics in Eastern Europe, the United States has consolidated its international hegemony, and the dollar is once again optimistic and strong. After 2000, the American economy was in a cyclical adjustment, and the September 1 1 incident caused a huge impact. The continuous reduction of interest rates by the Federal Reserve has led to the flood of dollar liquidity around the world. At the same time, a large number of manufacturing industries in the United States moved overseas, and the current account deficit widened, which further promoted the decline of the US dollar exchange rate.
Since American trade is denominated in US dollars, there is no foreign exchange reserve problem in the United States, so there are no exchange rate risks, currency mismatches, reserve depreciation and other problems in the change of the US dollar exchange rate. Its exchange rate, like interest rates, can be regarded as an economic internal control tool. However, the fluctuation of the US dollar exchange rate will have a great impact and shock on developing countries that use the US dollar as the currency for reserve and trade.
Third, China's economic growth mode and structure are undergoing major changes.
Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has been running in an unbalanced state for most of the time. The total supply and demand of commodities in China has changed from a shortage before the mid-1990s to a relative surplus of tradable commodities since the late 1990s. From the perspective of foreign trade, China's foreign trade deficit was relatively large before 1990s, and after 1990, China's foreign trade was surplus except 1993, and it showed an increasing trend. It reflects the development of China's market economic system, the upgrading of industrial structure and the improvement of labor productivity of tradable goods. At the same time, in the economic operation, there are also problems that savings continue to exceed investment and consumption, and domestic demand is insufficient, especially the slow growth rate of consumption.
First of all, there is a serious waste of resources and energy in China's production. The products exported from China are characterized by high material consumption, high energy consumption, high pollution and low added value. In this way, when the economy achieves rapid growth, the added welfare will be less, and the sustainability of economic growth cannot be guaranteed. Secondly, the proportion of investment and consumption is not coordinated enough. Since 2003, the gap between the growth rate of investment and consumption in China has been widening. In 2005, although the gap between the two has narrowed, it still remained at about 15 percentage points. In 2004, the investment rate in China was 43.9%, which was 7.5 percentage points higher than that in 2000, when the investment expansion was serious, and 0.4 percentage points higher than that in 1993. In 2004, the consumption rate was 53.6%, 7.5 percentage points lower than that in 2000, the lowest point since the reform and opening up. The imbalance between investment and consumption has a negative impact on economic growth. In addition, the income of farmers and manufacturing workers is too low, and there is a lack of social security such as labor protection and adequate medical care for the elderly, which makes it difficult for the consumption growth rate to rise sharply.
In recent years, China's economic scale has expanded and its international influence has increased rapidly, but its global competitiveness has declined for three consecutive years, from 33 in 2002 to 49 in 2005. To achieve comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable economic development in the new era, we must make major adjustments to the mode and structure of economic growth.
4. China's economy will accelerate its reform in an unbalanced internal and external environment.
In the future, China's economy will continue to develop in an unbalanced internal and external environment. In view of the inefficient utilization of energy resources, uncoordinated domestic demand structure and intensified income differentiation, it is necessary to further expand consumption. It is expected that China will accelerate domestic economic reform, and at the same time maintain a relatively stable macro-aggregate policy, introduce structural policies in labor security, social security, strengthening education, protecting the environment and developing consumption points.
Under the background of global economic integration and multipolarization, we can consider adjusting the structure of foreign exchange reserves in time to form diversification of foreign exchange reserves. The reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism moderately strengthened the linkage mechanism between domestic market and international market, and greatly promoted the development of China's foreign exchange market and financial market. However, the change of exchange rate level has limited effect on solving the structural problems of China's economy. Under the background of low income of manufacturing workers, exchange rate appreciation may further reduce workers' income and have a completely different impact on stimulating domestic consumption. Under the background of international industrial transfer and economic globalization, if developing countries like China achieve balance of payments through exchange rate level changes, they are likely to face such a situation: people see the sun catching up with the west day by day, but the sun has already risen in the east.