First, the net foreign debt of the Turkish government is now close to 45 billion US dollars, while the foreign debt of Turkish companies can be counted as high as 92 billion US dollars, totaling 654.38+03.7 billion US dollars, which is a great increase compared with 654.38+00.8 billion US dollars in the same period last year and has greatly exceeded Turkey's foreign exchange reserves. Theoretically, Turkey is seriously insolvent. Of course, the debt is not paid in one lump sum, and we will not see the Turkish government and company default for the time being. However, insolvency will give investors and the outside world sufficient reasons to bearish on the Turkish lira, which is also the main reason for the pressure on the Turkish lira in recent years.
Second, compared with the previous two years, the prices of commodities such as oil and natural gas have soared this year, and Turkey needs to import a lot of oil and gas and consume a lot of foreign exchange, which is also unfavorable to Turkey. In addition, it's the end of June 5438+065438+ 10 and June 5438+February, and the profits earned by foreign investors who set up companies in Turkey have a great demand for foreign exchange and repatriation to their parent companies. This is also worse for the already stretched Turkish foreign exchange. In short, no matter which straw it is, it finally crushed market confidence and led to the collapse of the Turkish lira.
Third, Mobius did not specify which countries are vulnerable to the currency crisis. However, he said that the good news is that since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, many emerging markets have borrowed more funds in local currency. According to an analysis report released by Nomura Securities last week, after fully analyzing and considering the percentage of foreign debt in gross domestic product (GDP), the ratio of foreign exchange reserves to imports and the stock market index, the four emerging markets facing the greatest risk of exchange rate crisis are Egypt, Romania, Turkey and Sri Lanka.
According to the report, looking forward to the future, the current normalization of the Fed's monetary policy is not a particularly good prospect for emerging markets. The Fed will reduce its asset purchases from this month. Most Fed officials have said that they will not consider raising interest rates until at least the scale of bond purchases is reduced, but the market has been looking for a faster timetable for raising interest rates. At present, the market has digested the expectation that the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates in June 2022.