What can linear analysis do for China's gdp?
Abstract; This paper selects the relevant data of China's total import and export volume and GDP during the period of 1996-2006, describes the economic relationship between total import and export volume and GDP, makes correlation analysis and regression analysis on the growth of total import and export volume and its relationship with GDP, and predicts the contribution of total foreign trade import and export volume to China's economic growth. This paper holds that the growth of total foreign trade import and export contributes significantly to China's GDP growth. Keywords: total import and export GDP economic growth In recent years, in the process of economic development, China has been opening to the outside world in economic and trade, and at the same time, China's economic development has shown a good trend. The moderate growth of foreign trade is one of the important factors affecting economic development, because the growth of foreign trade has brought a lot of foreign exchange income to China, thus promoting the growth of China's GDP and promoting the economic development of China. In recent years, the total import and export volume of China's foreign trade has been increasing. What is the relationship between foreign trade and GDP, how does it change, and does the growth of total foreign trade import and export really promote the growth of GDP? Based on the regression analysis method, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the above problems. I. Selection and Processing of Data In this paper, the change of China's total foreign trade import and export volume is used to represent the change of GDP, and the data of China's total foreign trade import and export volume and GDP from 65438 to 0996 to 2006 are selected. For the sake of simplicity, X represents the total import and export volume of foreign trade, and Y represents the GDP of China. Relevant data are shown in the following figure: unit; 100 million yuan: China's total import and export volume 1996-2006 and GDP year x (total import and export volume) y (GDP)199624176+076565438+099999896.12967. 4.6 20068 200495539.1159878.3 200516921.8183867.9 200614076548 Modeling. In order to determine the relationship between China's foreign trade import and export volume and GDP, we directly regress them. According to the above data, the following equation can be listed: y =1.122561118 * x+54347.26934 se (0.04419/kloc. In the economic sense, the growth of total foreign trade import and export will promote the growth of national GDP. The total import and export volume of foreign trade is positively related to GDP. According to a positive number 1. 1226 in the equation, every unit of X increases, Y will also increase 1. 1226 units, which is displayed as 65438. When the significance level is 5%, P=0.0000 and p is less than 0.05, so it is statistically significant, and this equation has passed the test statistically. The above data show that R2=0.986245, that is, the goodness-of-fit value of the linear regression equation between total foreign trade import and export and GDP growth during the period of 1996-2006 is high, which shows that X explains the change of the explained variable Y to a great extent, that is, the change of total foreign trade import and export greatly affects the change of GDP, and the growth of total foreign trade import and export promotes the growth of GDP, which is conducive to promoting the economic development of China. Conclusion Through research, this paper shows that the change of China's total foreign trade import and export has a great influence on GPD. 1996-2006, while China's trade continued to open to the outside world, China's total foreign trade import and export increased year by year, and under the influence of the total foreign trade import and export, China's GDP also showed a trend of increasing year by year. It can be seen that the continuous development of foreign trade import and export has promoted the development of the national economy.