From the perspective of growth rate, the growth rate of social financing scale and M2 in 20 19 both went up. According to the preliminary statistics of the central bank, at the end of 20 19, the stock of social financing scale was 25 1.3 1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, while at the end of 20 18, the growth rate of social financing scale was 10.3%.
Zhou Xuedong, director of the General Office of the People's Bank of China, said: "The higher the social integration index, the better, as long as it is reasonable within a certain period of time. If the scale of social integration is too high, it will push up the leverage level of the whole society, which will bring inflation concerns. If it is too low, it will reflect that financial institutions have not served the real economy. "
The data released by the central bank also showed that the balance of broad money (M2) increased by 8.7% at the end of 20 19 and 12, and the growth rate of M2 at the end of 2018 was 8. 1%.
Ruan, director of the Bureau of Investigation and Statistics of the Central Bank, said at the press conference held on the afternoon of June 65438+ 10/6 that the rebound in M2 growth in 20 19 was the result of the central bank's adherence to prudent monetary policy and countercyclical regulation. However, the inclusion of national debt and local government bonds in social and financial statistics will make the statistical data more complete and comprehensive, and be conducive to the coordination of fiscal policy and monetary policy.
"At the end of 20 19, M2 increased by 8.7% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations. I observed that it was mainly influenced by two factors. First, RMB loans increased by 16.8 1 trillion yuan, an increase of 643.9 billion yuan over the same period of last year, and derivative deposits increased; 2. China's trade surplus in June and February last year was 46.79 billion US dollars, the highest since the second half of last year. As the RMB exchange rate rises from depreciation, it is expected that foreign exchange holdings will improve and the base currency will increase. " Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, said.
In addition, Li Qilin, chief economist of Yuekai Securities, said that in addition to M2, M 1, as a representative of economy and enterprise vitality, also showed obvious improvement in 65438+February, and showed a rebound trend for two consecutive months, which is a positive signal for the economy.
In terms of future monetary policy, Sun Guofeng, director of the Monetary Policy Department of the Central Bank, said that in 2020, the People's Bank of China will continue to implement a prudent monetary policy, maintain flexibility and moderation, pay attention to internal and external balance, and maintain the growth of broad money M2 and social financing scale.
Where did the new credit go?
Not only did the scale of RMB credit and social financing reach a record high in 20 19, but compared with 20 18, the credit structure was also optimized, and the proportion of medium and long-term loans invested in entity enterprises and manufacturing industries increased significantly.
"Overall, the overall financial data is improving, the structure is optimizing, medium and long-term loans of enterprises are picking up, and financial support for entities is strengthening." Yan said.
Specifically, the data released by the central bank shows that among the new loans in 20 19 16.8 1 trillion, the primary source is medium and long-term loans from non-financial enterprises and government organizations, followed by medium and long-term loans from residents, mainly from mortgage loans. In 20 19, loans from non-financial enterprises, institutions and groups increased by 9.45 trillion yuan, an increase of 1. 14 trillion yuan year-on-year. New corporate loans accounted for 56.2% of all new loans, up 4.83 percentage points from 20 18.
In addition, the proportion of medium and long-term loans and the proportion of medium and long-term loans in manufacturing have also increased. According to the data of the central bank, new medium and long-term loans accounted for 67.4% in 20 19, up 2. 16 percentage points from the end of last year. Ruan also said at the press conference that in 20 19 years, the medium and long-term loans of manufacturing industry increased by 14.9%, the highest since 20 12 years.
In terms of the scale of social financing, 20 16.88 trillion yuan of loans to the real economy increased by 1.2 1 trillion yuan year-on-year, accounting for 66% of the total new social financing in the whole year. On the other hand, the scale of off-balance-sheet financing such as entrusted loans, trust loans and undiscounted bank acceptance bills continued to decrease, but the reduction rate was significantly narrower than that in 20 18; Under direct financing, the net financing of corporate bonds was 3.24 trillion yuan, 609.8 billion yuan more than the same period of last year, with a large increase.
On the other hand, RMB loans increased by 1. 1.4 trillion yuan in February 20 19, an increase of 54.3 billion yuan year-on-year. In the direction of money and credit in early 2020, many bank branch leaders interviewed in 2 1 Century said that on the one hand, there will be more large-scale government and infrastructure projects at the beginning of the year, on the other hand, banks will continue to strengthen their support for small and medium-sized enterprises.
"The regulatory authorities have also been emphasizing that finance should strengthen its support for the real economy, so we have been maintaining credit supply. From the regional observation, the credit demand of enterprises in the Pearl River Delta region where private manufacturing industries gather has rebounded after the fourth quarter of last year. It is expected that the signing of the Sino-US trade agreement will further promote the business of manufacturing and import and export enterprises in the Pearl River Delta and enhance the credit demand of enterprises. " The deputy governor of a state-owned bank in the Pearl River Delta region said.
How will monetary policy go in 2020?
Since the beginning of 2020, the price of money in the money market has gone up. On June 6th, 65438, the central bank implemented a comprehensive RRR cut, and invested a lot of money in the open market for two consecutive days to ensure a reasonable and sufficient liquidity.
Sun Guofeng, Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the Central Bank, said at the press conference held on1June 6 that the central bank has recently provided liquidity of different maturities through various means such as medium-term lending facilities and open market operations, so as to maintain a reasonable and abundant liquidity in the banking system, stable liquidity before the Spring Festival and smooth operation of money market interest rates. If we observe the change of interest rate in the money market, we can find that it is relatively stable. The central bank will continue to adopt monetary policy to ensure the stability of liquidity before the Spring Festival, and also provide a good liquidity environment for financial institutions to support the real economy.
In addition to the liquidity problem, the market is also very concerned about the trend of monetary policy in 2020, especially RRR interest rate cuts and interest rate cuts.
In terms of RRR reduction, Sun Guofeng said that at present, the average statutory deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is 9.9%, that of large commercial banks is 12.5%, that of medium-sized banks is 10.5% and that of small banks is 7%. Calculate the actual statutory deposit reserve ratio of the two best and most county banks as 6%. "Internationally, China's statutory deposit reserve ratio is at a medium level. There is still room for China to lower the deposit reserve ratio in the future, but the space is limited. " Sun Guofeng said.
In terms of interest rate cuts, Sun Guofeng responded that with the interest rate marketization reform, we should pay more attention to the changes in the actual loan interest rate when discussing interest rate cuts. "Last year, the overall market interest rate went down, and the LPR reform promoted the effect of the monetary policy transmission mechanism, and the credit interest rate level dropped significantly." Sun Guofeng said, "The benchmark deposit interest rate will be maintained for a long time and will be adjusted appropriately according to changes in the economic situation."
"The macro economy has stabilized recently, and inflationary pressure still exists. I don't expect MLF interest rate to be adjusted for the time being. Since RRR cut interest rates by 0.5 percentage points at the beginning of this year, the bank's capital cost has declined. It is expected that the LPR interest rate will be slightly lowered by 5 basis points this month. In addition, 1.23 will have 257.5 billion TMLF due, which is expected to expand the scale of sequel. " Wen Bin said.
Tang Jianwei, the Financial Research Center of Bank of Communications, also said that the current interest rate cut (reducing the operating interest rate of MLF) has limited effect on reducing the financing cost of entity enterprises. It is expected that before the completion of the stock loan switching pricing benchmark, the monetary control will focus on quantitative policies, and the MLF operating interest rate will be lowered or will be after March.
In terms of credit supply, Zou Lan, director of the financial market department, said that the proportion of real estate credit resources will be strictly controlled, and commercial banks will be guided to change their business ideas and focus on the real economy and small and micro enterprises. The central bank will promote commercial banks to serve small and micro enterprises, and there will be further research and deployment.