Macro and finance
I. Analysis of Macroeconomic Operation in 2006
Judging from several major economic regions in the world, the overall situation of global economic growth remained stable in 2006, but the growth rate began to slow down. The United States is expected to grow by 3.3% for the whole year, which is basically the same as that of the previous year; Europe's economic growth is good, and it is expected to reach 2.0% for the whole year; Japan's growth rate was 3% in 2005 and is expected to be 2.7% in 2006. In addition, India, another big country in Asia, is expected to increase from 8.4% to 7.9% in 2005.
China is a big country with economic growth in Asia. Although the economic growth in 2006 will exceed double digits, compared with the growth of 65,438+00.9% in 2005, it will still be steady and declining. The annual economic growth is expected to be 10.3%- 10.6%. In the first half of the year, the gross national product increased by 10.9% year-on-year, which triggered domestic concerns about overheated economic growth. The central bank has repeatedly adjusted the benchmark interest rate of deposit reserve and deposit and loan interest rates, and the growth trend in the third quarter began to decline steadily.
In 2006, the investment and export of the two big wagons driving China's economic growth changed to varying degrees. First of all, investment in fixed assets has declined steadily. Investment in fixed assets increased gradually in the first half of the year, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 3 1.3% in June. Since July, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate has steadily declined to the level at the beginning of the year 10 (see figure 1).
Although RMB appreciated sharply in 2006, it did not have much impact on the rapid growth of China's import and export. In the first half of the year, the growth of exports and imports remained relatively stable, and the growth rate of exports was slightly higher than that of imports. Since August, the pattern of import and export has changed, the growth rate of export and import has shown a trend of differentiation, and the trade surplus has further expanded. By June 1 1, the cumulative growth rate of trade surplus had exceeded 70%, with a total value of1565.2 billion US dollars (see Figure 2).
Judging from the total consumption and price index of social retail goods in 2006, the overall operation situation is stable. Except for the rapid growth of consumption in the Spring Festival at the beginning of the year, compared with 2005, the growth rate has increased, which is closely related to the policy tilt to the countryside and the increase of per capita disposable income. The overall consumer price level (CPI) is also very stable, with neither inflation nor deflation. It runs in the range of 1%-2% for the whole year, and accumulated at1-1.3% year-on-year, showing an obvious growth trend in the second half of the year.
As the main driving industry of economic growth, industry presents a good trend of high growth and rising profits. In June, 2006, China's industrial production reached a new high in 10 years, with a year-on-year growth rate of 19.5%. By June, it was gradually adjusted back to14.7%. The year-on-year growth rate of industrial profits increased from 28% in the first half of the year to 30. 1% in the first month.
The trend of excessive growth of money and credit has been initially curbed. According to the data of the People's Bank of China, the growth of broad money M2 has gradually declined since May. At the end of September, M2 increased by 16.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by10.6 and 0.9 percentage points respectively compared with the end of June and the same period of 2005, which was the lowest level since 2006.
In recent years, the scale of China's balance of payments surplus has been expanding, which has attracted attention at home and abroad. Statistics from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange show that in 2005, China's balance of payments surplus was $223.8 billion, 3.3 times higher than that of 200 1 year. On this basis, in the first half of 2006, China's balance of payments surplus was130.5 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 24%; The ratio of surplus to GDP in the same period reached 1 1.5%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points over the previous year. According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs, the accumulated trade surplus of China before 2006 was as high as 1 1 month, reaching157 billion US dollars. That is to say, from the beginning of July to the end of 1 1, the trade surplus of goods, which is the leading factor of China's balance of payments surplus, has expanded by nearly 1 times in five months.
In 2006, on the whole, the national economy is developing in the expected direction, and the prominent contradictions in economic operation have been alleviated. However, at present, the foundation for the decline of fixed asset investment and monetary credit growth is still unstable, the situation of energy saving and consumption reduction and pollution reduction is grim, and the imbalance of international payments is still increasing.
Second, the macro-financial questionnaire analysis part
This survey is divided into two groups. One group is 100 domestic experts, scholars, government officials and entrepreneurs (see the table below, hereinafter referred to as the expert group). The other group is readers and media reporters of Economic Watch (hereinafter referred to as social media groups).
With the changes in global economic growth in 2006, there are great differences between the expert group and the social media group in their predictions of the global economy in 2007. More than half of experts and scholars believe that the overall global economic growth will obviously slow down in 2007, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0-3%, while the society and the media are generally optimistic. More than half of social media people expect the growth trend to still exceed 3% next year. Regionally, experts and scholars believe that the economic growth of the United States, Japan and the European Union slowed down in 2007, and they are still optimistic about the economic growth of emerging countries and China.
Consumption, investment and export are the troika of economic growth. For a long time, China's economy has been driven by investment and export, far higher than the growth of consumption. When predicting 2007, experts and social media groups still believe that the two will be the main driving forces of China's economic growth in 2007, and there will be no big change, but about 20% of the people in social media groups believe that consumption and government expenditure will gradually play a role (see Figure 3).
When forecasting the overall price level (CPI) in 2007, 56.52% of the experts think it should be at the stage of 1%-3%, and 43.48% think the growth rate will be above 3%. The views of the social media group are roughly the same as those of the expert group, with 1%-3% and more than 3% equally divided (see Figure 4
For the forecast of fixed assets investment growth in 2007, most experts and social media groups believe that the year-on-year growth in 2007 will exceed 20%. It is worth noting that 60% of experts think that the growth will exceed this value, while 47.62% of social media groups think that it will exceed 20%, and 40.48% think that the growth rate is 10%-20% (see Figure 5
According to the forecast of the sources of fixed assets investment funds, the main sources of investment in 2007 are private investment, state-owned enterprise investment and foreign enterprise investment in turn. However, both experts and scholars and social media groups generally believe that the main sources of fixed assets investment in the new year are private enterprises and state-owned enterprises, followed by the growth of foreign capital.
In China's export forecast in 2007, it is generally believed that China's exports will continue to grow, but the growth rate will also slow down accordingly, against the background of the economic slowdown in the United States, Europe and Japan in 2007. About 50% of the members of the expert group and social media group think that the growth rate will decrease, while some experts (34.78%) and social media (33.33%) think that it will maintain a high growth rate, about.
In 2007, when conducting a questionnaire survey on the key direction of government expenditure, it was found that both the expert group and the media social group thought that the expenditure would shift to agriculture, and 57. 14% of the members of the social media group also thought that government expenditure would increase investment in infrastructure in 2007. When the government increases its expenditure on energy construction in the future, few people think that it will increase its efforts. Some experts think that the government should also increase its investment in public construction in 2007.
According to the forecast of the growth of foreign exchange reserves in 2007, the expert group believes that it will continue to grow, and 34% of them believe that it will maintain the rapid growth trend in 2006. However, among the main experts and social media people who participated in the questionnaire survey, 52. 17% experts and 63% social media people think that 2007 will maintain steady growth, which is lower than that in 2006. The main reason for the decline is that export growth will slow down next year. At the same time, a few people think that in order to balance the international balance of payments and optimize the international environment, the country's foreign exchange reserves may be reduced (see Figure 7).
When asked about the development trend of RMB exchange rate in China in 2007, experts and social media people have very similar views. 69.57% experts and 73.8 1% social media people think that 2007 will keep the trend of steady appreciation in 2006, and more than 10% experts and social media people think that 2006 will be "rapid appreciation" and "stable" in 2006.
In 2007, experts had a clear attitude towards the prediction of interest rate changes. 60.87% experts believe that interest rates will continue to rise next year, and 47.62% experts hold the same view. Experts believe that the main reason for continuing to raise interest rates is the current excess currency liquidity, and the central bank may take further measures to ease inflationary pressure. Due to the complex factors affecting this issue, about 20% experts and social media said that it is difficult to judge the future trend of interest rates (see Figure 9).
In 2007, the primary problems of China's economic growth were: insufficient domestic demand, overheated investment, soaring housing prices and inflation. Among them, insufficient domestic demand and overheated investment are two important issues in the eyes of the expert group. However, compared with social media, the expert group has more confidence in the steady growth of China's economy. According to the survey results of social media group, 59.55438+0% of social media people are worried about overheated investment and insufficient domestic demand next year, while 43. 18% and 39.6438+03% of experts are worried about these two issues respectively. In other respects, the attention of experts is obviously lower than that of social media groups (see table 1).
Three. Summary of Macroeconomic Development Trend in 2007
To sum up, the Institute of Economic Observation believes that the rapid economic growth of more than double digits for three consecutive years will change in 2007, but there will be no sharp decline, but the growth rate will be reduced. According to the survey data and the research and analysis of the Institute of Economic Observation, the growth rate will remain at 9%-9.5% in 2007, and the important factors affecting the growth rate include the following aspects:
First, changes in the international environment have led to important changes in the growth trend of China's imports and exports. The economic growth of several major economic zones has slowed down, especially in the United States. Due to the sluggish real estate industry, high interest rates, slow pace of Japanese economic recovery, bottlenecks in EU economic growth and other external environmental factors, China's exports will have an important impact. We believe that the export growth in 2007 will be lower than that in 2006, and China's imports will increase with the appreciation of RMB.
Second, investment is returning to rationality, and the growth rate is obviously stable compared with previous years. Since 2003, the phenomenon of overheated investment in China has been obvious. Under the national macro-control, preliminary results were achieved in 2004. However, with the rapid development of the global economy and the economic growth of China, investment rebounded again in 2005. Under the further control of the relevant state departments, the effect has been obvious since the third quarter of 2006, and the growth of fixed assets investment in the whole society is relatively stable. We believe that the investment in fixed assets in 2007 will not increase substantially as in previous years, and will maintain a steady growth of around 20% under the guidance of relevant monetary and fiscal policies.
Third, the relatively slow growth of residents' consumption has a profound impact on economic growth, and it is difficult to find a quick solution to this problem in the short term. Judging from the retail consumption and price index of the whole society, it has maintained a relatively stable growth trend since 200 1 stepped out of the low point of deflation, but its contribution to economic growth as a whole is not high, far lower than investment growth. In 2007, with the gradual solution of a series of problems such as education, social security, medical care, rural areas and agriculture, it will promote the further growth of consumption. However, we believe that the key growth in the new year is still difficult to determine, and the total consumption growth may be higher than that in 2006, but it will not be too big. It is worth mentioning that the premise of this steady growth is to maintain price stability. From the data analysis of the survey, the possibility of inflation in 2007 is also relatively small.
Fourth, the focus of government expenditure has shifted to agriculture and rural construction, which is a new breakthrough in China's economic growth. In the 11th Five-Year Plan, agriculture and rural construction have become the focus of China's economic development. In 2006, government payment was obviously transferred to rural areas and achieved initial results. We believe that in 2007, the government of China will further increase the transfer of rural and agricultural construction, and further promote the development of rural consumer market. However, due to the weak rural foundation, it will not play an obvious role in promoting the overall economy.
industrial economy
Under the optimistic macroeconomic expectation in 2007, what are the development trends of different industries in China? In this survey, we only made specific investigations in a few fields such as finance, real estate, automobile, energy and tourism. The survey results show that 52. 17% of the respondents are optimistic about the overall profit level of enterprises in China in 2007, and think that their growth rate is basically stable. As far as industries are concerned, more than half of experts believe that real estate, finance and automobiles will be the leading industries in China's economy. In addition, the energy industry has also become the focus of experts' general attention, and with the approach of the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, tourism has also been generally optimistic by experts.
Real estate is the main driving force of China's economic growth in recent years. From 1 to 1 1 2006, the national investment in real estate development was1641600 million yuan, up by 24% year-on-year, which became an important force to promote the growth of fixed assets investment. An important factor to stimulate the continuous surge of real estate investment is the soaring housing prices. According to the latest statistics, during the period of 10 in 2007, the sales price of houses in 70 large and medium-sized cities nationwide increased by 5.4% year-on-year, and the sales price of houses in Beijing continued to lead the country with an increase of 10.7%.
What is worrying is that it is not a hot-selling situation corresponding to the rise in housing prices. By the end of June, the vacant area of commercial housing in China was1123.55 million square meters, up by 7.9% year-on-year. Among them, vacant commercial housing was 67.23 million square meters, an increase of 6.4%. The double height of housing price and vacant area of commercial housing shows that the risks in the real estate market are increasing day by day.
Real estate development is a capital-intensive industry, and most of the funds raised by developers come from bank loans. In view of the unhealthy factors and hidden dangers in the real estate market, since 2005, the central macro-control policies have been introduced one after another, and some achievements have been made, but the problems have not been fundamentally solved. On June 65438+February 10, 2006, the central bank issued the financial stability report for 2006, which expounded the current situation of domestic financial industry and the implementation of monetary policy. The report pointed out that in the case of rising house prices and large-scale real estate credit, it is necessary to pay attention to the potential risks brought about by fluctuations in real estate prices. This is the first time that the central bank has made an early warning of the financial risks that may be caused by falling house prices in the form of a column.
The Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of 2006 once again emphasized that "we should pay attention to strengthening reasonable guidance and effective regulation of the real estate market" and "we should make great efforts in policy implementation to ensure that the central principles, policies and work arrangements are implemented".
So, what will be the trend of house prices in 2007? The opinions of experts participating in this survey are obviously divided: 30.43% of experts think that house prices in key big cities and small and medium-sized cities will continue to rise, 2 1.74% of experts think that key big cities are stable and small and medium-sized cities are rising sharply, 13.04% of experts think that key big cities continue to rise and small and medium-sized cities are stable. It seems that 2007 will be an unsettled year for the real estate industry.
According to the agreement of WTO, after 2006, China will cancel all forms of ownership and management rights of foreign banks, including ownership restrictions, allow foreign banks to provide RMB business services to China customers, and give national treatment to foreign banks.
65438+February 2006 1 1 day is the deadline.
1 15 10 15, the State Council officially promulgated the Regulations on the Administration of Foreign Banks. 165438+1On October 28th, the CBRC promulgated the Detailed Rules for the Implementation of the Regulations on the Administration of Foreign Banks (hereinafter referred to as the Detailed Rules). According to the detailed rules, foreign banks wishing to engage in RMB business can apply to the CBRC after meeting the conditions of "having been in business for three years and being profitable for two consecutive years". After obtaining relevant approval, they can engage in RMB comprehensive business, including allowing foreign bank branches to absorb time deposits of citizens in China of not less than RMB 1 10,000 yuan.
On February 6th, 65438, Xu Feng, Director of Banking Supervision Department III of China Banking Regulatory Commission, revealed at the press conference of "Guidelines for Financial Innovation of Commercial Banks" of China Banking Regulatory Commission that at present, more than 10 foreign-funded banks have clearly indicated that they will be transformed into corporate banks registered in China, and China Banking Regulatory Commission will officially announce the first batch of acceptance on June 5438+February 1 day according to the work plan.
Banking belongs to financial service industry, and the core of service industry is service level. To be sure, as foreign banks carry out RMB retail business in the form of corporate banks, it will bring more intense competition to the overall pattern of the banking industry. It is not ruled out that the operating costs of some Chinese banks will rise in the short term, but this kind of competition will also help to improve the operating level of Chinese banks and eventually win.
The opinions of the interviewed experts on the competition between Chinese and foreign banks in 2007 are obviously divided into two factions. 47.83% experts believe that the intervention of foreign banks will not have much impact on Chinese banks, while 43.48% experts believe that it will have a far-reaching impact.
The automobile industry is still a bright spot in China's economy. Since China's entry into WTO, there has not been a situation that the price of imported cars is expected to plummet. On the contrary, for the first time in history, China automobile industry explosively entered an unprecedented high-speed development stage. According to the data, from 20065438+0 to 2004, China's automobile production and sales doubled in three years, with a compound annual growth rate of 30%. In 2004 and 2005, it entered the rational regression stage, and the growth rate of production and sales decreased from over 30% to 12%, but it is still one of the fastest growing markets in the world.
The main driving force for the development and profit of automobile enterprises lies in their own core competitiveness, while the external key factors are market demand, government policies and industry competition pattern. The survey results show that 47.83% of the respondents think that the focus of the automobile industry in 2007 is "the rapid rise of independent brands in China", 26.09% think that "the price of automobiles has dropped sharply again" and 2 1.74% think that it is "the rapid merger and reorganization of domestic brands" (see table 2).
In recent years, power shortage, oil shortage and "coal-electricity dispute" have seriously restricted China's economic development, and the energy problem is a problem that we must face and solve. 47.83% of the experts who participated in this survey think that the most prominent problem in China's energy field in 2007 will be to solve the problem of high energy consumption. Open source is important, but we should also pay attention to throttling. In addition, 43.48% of the respondents believe that it is time to solve the problem from the system, and energy pricing must be market-oriented (see Table 3).
Since the transition period of China's retail industry's entry into WTO ended on June 5438+February 65438+10/October, 2004, China's retail market has been fully opened to foreign investment. In 2006, the international retail giant Best Buy, which entered China early, finally stopped waiting and announced that it would spend $65.438+0.8 billion to control Wuxing Electric. After the joint venture, the shareholding ratio of Best Buy is higher than 50%. From then on, the domestic appliance retail industry in China will break the monopoly of domestic capital. On June 22nd, 2006, 165438+ The new Gome Electrical Appliances Group formed by the merger of Gome and Yongle was formally established in Beijing. The domestic retail market is booming. Looking forward to 2007, 56.52% of the respondents think that the retail merger in China will become a trend, 2 1.74% think that Gome's merger with Yongle is only a case, and 17.39% think it's hard to say.
The reform of state-owned monopoly industries has always been the focus of public attention. The survey results show that the opinions of experts are divided again. 39. 13% of the respondents think that the pricing should be "market-oriented", 30.43% insist on "continuing to implement the national guidance price", and some experts think that the entry threshold should be lowered and the employee salary reform should be carried out (see figure 10).
Society and thought
Economic growth is the driving force of social development, but China society, which is in the process of rapid economic growth and social transformation, is also experiencing a series of social problems and changes in ideas. Respondents expressed their views on social problems such as medical care, education and corruption in China. The survey results show that the main opinions of experts, society and media have a high degree of convergence. On social issues, respondents generally believe that the problems of medical care and education lie in the imperfect system, and this problem will not change much in 2007. The gap between urban and rural areas in China will continue to widen in the coming year, and the respondents are cautious about the improvement of corruption. Regarding social concept, the general opinion of the respondents is that economic globalization will bring great changes to China's social concept, and many of them also believe that the concept of democracy will be further strengthened in 2007. In this regard, some experts said that the key to solving the problem now should be from the settlement system and political system. To build a harmonious society, we should analyze all social strata in China and adjust the class interests of different social strata. At the same time, the management of education, medical care, housing, transportation and communication must be reformed to a great extent.
The reform of medical system has always been the focus of public attention. In recent years, there have been some phenomena, such as the deterioration of public health, the lack of health equity and the alienation of hospital functions. The interviewed groups generally believe that the core of the problem of "difficult and expensive medical treatment" lies in the problems in the medical system, with 80% of experts holding this view and 78.26% of the society and the media holding this view. Regarding the medical system, 60.8 1% experts think that the problem of "difficulty in seeing a doctor" will not change much in 2007, while the public and the media are relatively optimistic. 40% of the respondents think that "difficulty in seeing a doctor" will not change and 35% think it will improve (see figure1kloc-0/).
Health is a basic human right. Article 45 of the current Constitution can be regarded as the constitutional origin of China citizens' right to health: "China people and China citizens have the right to get material help from the state and society in case of old age, illness or incapacity to work. The state develops social insurance, social relief and medical and health undertakings that citizens need to enjoy these rights. " The experience of medical reform in recent years shows that the benefits of hospitals can not be measured by cost-effectiveness, but by the health level of citizens. It is necessary to intensify efforts to change the existing system of supporting doctors with medicine, improve the sense of social responsibility of hospitals, and weaken their positioning as "enterprises". There are signs that the government-led medical system reform is becoming the mainstream view. Perfecting the supervision system, emphasizing diversified management, increasing government investment, especially local government investment, and establishing low-cost cooperative medical institutions at the grassroots level will become the main direction of future medical system reform.
In 2006, food and drug safety incidents occurred continuously, from the illness of Ampullaria gigas to the adverse reactions of Clindamycin Phosphate Glucose Injection, all of which highlighted the defects of standardization in the current food and drug industry. In this regard, 57% of the interviewed experts believe that the main reason for the frequent food and drug safety incidents is the poor supervision of the food and drug regulatory authorities; In the social and media groups, 65% people think that the relevant laws and regulations are not in place and are poorly implemented. More than 60% of the respondents believe that if the market disorder is not changed, more food and drug safety problems will be exposed.
Poor supervision of functional departments and imperfect laws and regulations have become the common sense of respondents on the causes of food and drug safety incidents. At the same time, the interviewed groups are also conservative about the solution and improvement of this problem in the coming year.
The gap between urban and rural areas has become a prominent contradiction in the current social and economic development. According to the survey, 60% of the experts interviewed believe that the gap between urban and rural areas will widen in the coming year, and 30% believe that there will be no change compared with 2006. However, 75% of social and media people think that the gap will widen, and 25% think that the gap between urban and rural areas will narrow in the coming year (Figure 12).
Although by the third quarter of 2006, the proportion of agricultural added value in China's GDP had dropped to 1 1%, nearly 60% of the rural population and 50% of the labor force were dominated by agriculture, and the urban-rural dual structure has not fundamentally changed. The non-agricultural population in China is a minority, and the efficiency of non-agricultural industries is low, so it is impossible to "feed back" agriculture with great strength in a short time. The gap between urban and rural areas will exist for a long time. If there are unexpected fluctuations, the gap between urban and rural areas may continue to widen. All these problems must attract our attention. The public revenue of land should be allocated to rural construction in a larger proportion, gradually eliminate the obstacles of population flow, strengthen rural compulsory education, and improve the rural minimum living security system and medical system. It may be necessary to pay attention to the work of improving the gap between urban and rural areas in 2007 and the next few years, and effectively improve the survival and living standards of farmers.
Similarly, regarding the social security issue, the focus of the interviewed experts and social media people is farmers, 44% of the interviewed experts and 65% of the social media people think that the social security problem of the rural population needs to be solved urgently, 22% of the experts think that the social security fund gap needs primary attention, accounting for 40%, while 39% of the experts and 25% of the social media people pay attention to urban low-income people. Some experts suggest that social security funds should be implemented to individuals.
According to the Research Report on the Forecast of Population Aging Development Trend in China issued by China Committee on Aging in February 2006, China has entered an aging society since 1999, and is currently in a rapid aging stage. By 2020, the elderly population will reach 248 million, and the aging level will reach 17 17%. The trend of rapid population aging has great influence on the economic structure, scientific and technological progress, cultural life and social security system of the whole society. The decline in the proportion of labor force and the increase in the pressure of social security system are the main problems we are facing now. In the coming year of 2007, what will be the trend of the rapid aging of China population?
Among all the experts surveyed, 69.57% think that the impact of aging on China society will not change much in the next 1 year, 8.7% think that the impact is very serious, and only 4.35% think that this demographic change has not caused any serious impact on society. In the online survey, the public's views are basically the same as those of experts, but the proportion that aging has a very serious impact on society is slightly higher, which is 15%.
The transformation of economic growth mode, population growth and the pressure brought by economic globalization and China's entry into WTO have made employment an increasingly serious social problem, which has aroused widespread concern. In the survey, nearly half of the experts think that the employment problem in China will be more serious in 2007, while nearly 40% of the experts think that there will not be much change. Compared with experts' opinions, the public's opinions in online surveys are pessimistic. 95% people think that the employment problem will be more serious. Experts and the public basically agree with the influence of employment pressure on social and economic development. Nearly 80% of experts and the public believe that employment pressure will increase the social burden and is not conducive to the stability of social order. In the investigation of the sources of employment pressure, both experts and the public believe that unreasonable industrial structure and overpopulation are important sources of pressure. But experts believe that the most important pressure comes from a large number of college graduates, and the public thinks it is the regional imbalance of economic development.
Education has always been a concern of people. Compared with the remarkable achievements of China's economic reform, the progress of education reform is not so smooth. Problems such as insufficient investment in education, unbalanced development and unreasonable distribution of educational resources have long existed. Although the government has introduced many policies and measures aimed at changing the present situation of educational problems, it still needs long-term efforts to alleviate and solve these problems. In the investigation of education reform in China, most people think that the system problem is the crux of the education problem. This proportion is 86.96% and 90% respectively. In addition, 40% of the public believe that the problem of education mode is also a major problem that should be solved in education reform.
Corruption is a worldwide problem in all countries, and China has not been able to avoid it. Misappropriation of social security funds, family corruption in Wang Zhaoyao, and Yang Songquan's misappropriation of AIDS prevention and control funds are all serious corruption cases exposed in 2006, warning people that corruption is really shocking. The international anti-corruption conference held in Beijing on June+10, 5438 declared China's determination to resolutely punish and actively prevent corruption. In the future 1 year, nearly half of the experts think that the corruption problem in China will become more and more serious, and the proportion of those who hold this view will be slightly reduced to 30%. More people, accounting for 45%, think that the corruption problem in China in 2007 will not change much compared with that in 2006. The proportion of experts who are relatively optimistic that corruption will be improved is 6.09%, while the proportion of netizens is 20%.
China today is a rapidly changing country. People's ideas are also undergoing major changes. In the coming year of 2007, which viewpoints can better influence people's thoughts and further affect the social development of China? In the eyes of experts, the most influential ideas are global thinking and lifelong education. The recognition rates are 39. 13% and 26.09% respectively. Netizens also believe that global thinking is the most influential concept for social development, accounting for 45. It can be seen that under the background of international economic, trade and cultural exchanges, the concept of global integration is deeply rooted in people's hearts and will continue to affect economic and social development.
Regional Economy and Enterprise Management
Where will China's economy be the most active in 2007? The Bohai Economic Zone was well received by the respondents. Beijing and Shanghai are still considered as the most dynamic investment cities in China, followed by Tianjin and Chongqing. In terms of attracting investment, in addition to China, which is generally favored by everyone, more than 30% of the experts interviewed chose the United States and Japan. In addition, the urbanization process in China is also a major concern of the interviewed experts, and there are also many differences.
When asked which countries or regions have the most investment value in 2007, China is still the first choice. Secondly, more than 30% of the respondents think it is the United States and Japan.
The huge market and cheap labor are China's advantages in attracting foreign investment and will exist for a long time. Of course, in recent years, Indian and Vietnamese countries in South and Southeast Asia have begun to attract more and more investors' attention, but in the short term, this does not pose a threat to China.
Although the scale of attracting foreign investment in China is expanding, the cumulative amount of FDI absorbed by China is far from that of the United States. According to statistics, from 1998 to 2005, the cumulative FDI inflows of the two countries were1261300 million US dollars and 400.6 billion US dollars respectively, and China was only 3 1.8% of the United States. In 2005, the per capita FDI inflow in China was about US$ 46.4 and US$ 357.6, seven times that of China. As the world's largest economic power, the United States began to