In particular, I have witnessed Korean car companies repeatedly suspend the operation of their factories because of the shortage of spare parts in China, and this suspicion is further aggravated. Hyundai, Kia, South Korea General Motors, Ssangyong and Renault Samsung, the five major automakers in South Korea, all have problems of insufficient upstream supply and factory shutdown to varying degrees.
It is said that 87% of harness parts of Korean car companies come from China. Even if the production capacity of harness production lines in South Korea and Southeast Asia is increased, it will only account for about 20% to 30% of China's production capacity.
At present, there are as many as 40 first-class and second-class suppliers in China that provide related parts for Korean cars. Although 38 of them have returned to work, the rate of returning to work is still below 60%. If demand exceeds supply continuously, the automobile production capacity of Hyundai and Kia alone in South Korea may be reduced by 50,000 vehicles, resulting in sales losses exceeding 1 trillion won.
In addition to Hyundai and other Korean cars, many multinational car companies, such as Toyota, Nissan and Fiat Chrysler, were forced to stop some production lines due to insufficient production capacity of China suppliers. For example, Nissan suspended production at its Kyushu plant because the supply of spare parts in China was blocked. According to the statistics of Japan International Trade Center, about 37% of the auto parts imported from Japan in 20 19 were imported from China.
Moreover, it is roughly estimated that there are many large auto parts suppliers in Hubei Province, such as Bosch, Webasto, Delphi, Valeo, Honeywell, Visteon, etc. Their products cover engines, gearboxes, chassis, car bodies, electronic systems and other fields.
At the end of 65438+ 10, Volkmar Dunnell, CEO of Bosch Group, said that if the epidemic continues, Bosch's global supply chain will be interrupted.
The sudden epidemic seems to constantly remind us that it plays a very key role in the global automobile industry chain. Although we admit that we have no voice and rich profits in some high value-added and high-tech industries, the integrity of the supply chain is beyond doubt, and the cluster effect is our greatest advantage.
According to the data released in "Research on the Development of Auto Parts Industry in China" in 20 18, there are more than 65,438+million parts enterprises in China, of which 55,000 are included in the statistics, basically achieving the coverage of 1500 kinds of parts. Among them, there are 7554 power systems (13.8%), 475 electronic systems (8.7%), special parts for new energy vehicles (1003) and chassis systems (16,304). In terms of scale, the coverage rate of the enterprises included in the statistics reached 98%.
It is not easy to change people.
Another hidden worry brought by the epidemic is the defense of the international supply chain.
Our manufacturing industry is an important part of the global supply chain, and the impact of the epidemic on the delay of resumption of work and production efficiency will continue to hit our position in the global supply chain. If the supply chain is loose and enterprises in other countries are forced to use backup bases, such as transferring production capacity to manufacturing in Southeast Asia, the result will become irreversible.
At the same time, the supply chain crisis in China is also regarded as an opportunity by the United States. In an interview, US Commerce Secretary Ross said that the epidemic will help the manufacturing industry return.
In fact, some enterprises have indeed done so. Fu Wei Science and Technology, a Japanese-funded automobile chassis and pedals manufacturer, announced that it would transfer some of its production capacity in Wuhan to a Philippine factory. If the epidemic continues to spread, it is not excluded that there will be more capacity transfer in China.
Even without the impact of the epidemic, in recent years, some multinational companies such as Samsung and Toyota have slightly reduced their production capacity in China after weighing various costs and risks, and some of their production capacity has been transferred to Southeast Asia such as the Philippines and Myanmar.
If we only look at the superficial trend, such hidden worries will become a positive answer. But in fact, the supply chain migration is not simple, and the viscosity of China's manufacturing industry is not low.
In the past two years, Sino-US trade frictions have been constant. According to the survey results of 379 German-funded enterprises invested in China by the Japan External Trade Organization, more than 80% of them have clearly stated that they have never considered capacity transfer. Interestingly, no matter how good Trump is to domestic enterprises, he hopes that their good wishes of moving their factories back to China will not come true. Musk did the opposite and rushed to set up a factory in China.
In fact, a country's manufacturing supply chain is composed of many factors, such as labor cost, labor quality, infrastructure facilities, logistics level, business environment, consumer market volume and so on. Once its advantages are established, it is difficult to break up in a short time. On the contrary, it is difficult to form a stable supply chain system without certain factors. This is also an important reason why it is difficult for Southeast Asian countries to replace us, either because of the quality of the labor force or because of the supporting infrastructure.
At the same time, Tang, who was in charge of Ford product development and procurement at that time, shared a trend he observed in an interview with the media. Through the analysis of more than 450 suppliers of Ford Motor Company in 36 countries/regions around the world, he found that the whole supply network has obvious regional characteristics, forming a situation that Mexico radiates to the United States, Eastern Europe and Morocco, Western Europe, China and Southeast Asia radiate to Asia. In other words, the regionalized troops have their own direction of action. In Asia, China's supply chain position is hard to shake.
It is not easy for manufacturing industry to return to America. The return of labor-intensive industries to developed countries is a process of reversing from the high-value end of the industrial chain, which is very difficult to move against the development trend.
Of course, this also reminds us that climbing to the high-value end of the industrial chain is our main task in the next stage. According to statistics, China exports at least 50% of auto parts, but it accounts for about 13% of the global auto parts export. This is why we should seize the opportunity of new energy development and strive to stand out from a number of high-level enterprises such as Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd. and Sheng Jun Electronics.
Deviation is more dangerous than embracing.
Aside from the impact of this epidemic, driven by the new four modernizations, the global automobile industry chain is already facing a big deconstruction and reorganization, and the whole industry chain is facing great opportunities and challenges.
Bernd Ostro, Chairman of the Labor Union of Audi AG (Bernd? Osterloh) shared an important set of data:
The number of parts of electric vehicle powertrain is only one sixth of that of fuel engine, which means that the manufacturing time of electric vehicle powertrain will be shortened and the number of related suppliers will also change;
The assembly time of electric vehicles is reduced by 30% compared with the current fuel-powered passenger cars;
Compared with the fuel engine factory, the battery factory that adapts to electric vehicles only needs one-fifth of the labor force.
In addition, Ford Motor Company once estimated that if automobile products were fully electrified, the value of brand manufacturers would shrink by 65,438+00%-30%. On the one hand, it is the risk brought by unprecedented uncertainty. The trial and error sinking cost of traditional enterprises is too high, but on the other hand, emerging enterprises such as autonomous driving and power batteries are constantly emerging in the new development trend.
The whole industrial value chain is being reshaped and integrated across borders at a speed visible to the naked eye. The vertical division of labor ecology of the traditional automobile industry is being broken, and the cases of deep cross-border cooperation and horizontal division of labor are gradually increasing. It is difficult for a country to take huge risks only by relying on one enterprise. No one is an island, and deviation is more dangerous than embracing.
At this time, where will the global automobile industry go? Only by breaking the boundaries and embracing each other can we explore the road to dawn. In the Antarctic, an emperor penguin can't resist the cold, so thousands of emperor penguins will hug each other and spend the long winter snowstorm.
Text/Zheng Wen
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This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.