The appreciation of RMB has not stopped China's foreign exchange reserves from persistently high. Foreign exchange reserves have reached trillion dollars, increasing by 30 billion dollars in May. Faced with these figures, the foreign exchange trading market is "surprisingly calm", but whether the RMB will appreciate faster has once again become the focus.
Zhou Xiaochuan once said shortly after the exchange rate reform that the floating exchange rate system "is like a sponge pad. If you want to make a phone call, I will give you a soft one. Come in, come in. I won't let you hit me. " In the year of exchange reform-the first year of RMB exchange rate system moving towards floating exchange rate system, China's economy has also entered the most complicated period since the reform and opening up, and the American factor has been staring at every step of RMB trend and trying to exert influence. However, the RMB exchange rate continues to walk out of its own "crawling" track with its unique "China characteristics".
A firm year
On May 15, the RMB broke through the 8 yuan mark against the US dollar, and the RMB has started a new round of tug-of-war around "8".
When the United States and other western countries enter the peak of summer vacation, they may not have time to respond to China's fiery trade surplus figure of $6,543.8+$04.5 billion in June.
The RMB still kept a small fluctuation. In the past month, the RMB has fluctuated greatly, hovering around 7.99, and the ups and downs are prepared for each other.
Main characteristics of RMB exchange rate trend.
In fact, since the exchange rate reform a year ago, under the attack of American factors and domestic economic situation, the RMB exchange rate has been leaving every historical footprint according to its own trajectory.
On July 2, 2005, at 7: 00 pm, the Bank of China officially announced that the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar had appreciated by 2. 1%, and formally introduced a foreign exchange mechanism with reference to a basket of currencies.
This is the BBC (band, basket, crawling; The floating range+basket currency+crawling peg rule) stipulates that the closing price of RMB against foreign currency on the same day will become the middle price of the next day, and the floating range of USD against RMB will not exceed three thousandths, but the middle price (the target exchange rate for the central bank to intervene in the foreign exchange market) will not be announced, leaving considerable room and space for the central bank to put forward the idea of implementing a "managed floating exchange rate mechanism" within the fluctuation range. By using the word "reference", the central bank can continue to play an important role in determining the exchange rate. "Yu Yongding said.
"This is a brave and correct step." Steven Green, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank, said in the Japanese newspaper 12 in July.
The "American factor" was once considered as the main reason for choosing July 2 1 last year for exchange rate reform. However, at that time, the accelerated inflow of foreign exchange was hindering China's monetary policy. That week, China released extremely strong economic data: China's economy grew by 9.5% in the second quarter, with strong investment, strong retail industry, strong exports and low inflation rate.
In the year of exchange rate reform, China was under the pressure of complicated domestic and international economic and financial situation. "Its complexity comes from the sharp adjustment of the economic and exchange rate trends of major foreign countries. The dollar reversed the three-year depreciation trend into appreciation, and then turned to depreciation, and American interest rates rose sharply. In addition, international geopolitics continues to expand tension and uncertainty, and the prices of resource products have risen sharply. " Tan Yaling, a senior researcher at Bank of China, said.
At home, "the problem of economic structure has accumulated the contradiction of exchange rate reform, and the' bad' coordination of economy, trade and finance has made the expected psychology of exchange rate reform obviously greater than the actual demand and performance. The pressure of RMB appreciation has always been a factor of uncoordinated exchange reform. " Tan Yaling thinks.
However, whether it is the American factor, foreign exchange holdings, or hot domestic economic data, the exchange rate reform has not stopped for a year. However, the reform of the exchange rate system has been carried out in an orderly manner.
The central bank has successively introduced a number of measures, such as RMB market maker system, primary foreign exchange dealers, inquiry trading methods, forward, spot, interest rate swap and inter-bank RMB foreign exchange swap, and the marketization process has been significantly accelerated. Last year, 1 25 October, 165438+, in order to alleviate the pressure of RMB appreciation and reduce foreign exchange holdings, the central bank introduced more foreign exchange swaps: selling US dollars immediately, agreeing to buy back US dollars at the same exchange rate after1year, and charging compensation for the difference between US dollars and RMB accordingly. /kloc-in April of 0/4, China relaxed the restrictions on domestic enterprises and individuals to participate in overseas financial markets, and QDII was officially released. Through China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, financial institutions in China will also be able to trade exchange rate and interest rate products traded on CME global electronic trading platform. On July 1, the accrual basis was fully implemented in the foreign exchange settlement and sale system of the Bank.
"A lot of basic work has been done, but it still needs to be improved. For example, the transaction cost in China's futures market is still high, "Wang Zhihao said. "The market can also gain greater flexibility and flexibility. At present, the actual trading fluctuation is only 0. 1%, so the sooner you approach the limit line of 0.3%, the better. "
On July 2 1 last year, the RMB appreciated by 2.0 1% after one-off adjustment, while it only appreciated by 0.49% in the second half of last year. In the first half of this year, the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar was only 0.9%. "The pace of appreciation is slow, especially in the second quarter, the RMB exchange rate basically kept fluctuating in a range. With the trade surplus hitting a record high and the inflow of hot money accelerating, the central bank's monetary tightening operation has not produced obvious results." The fund trading department of China Merchants Bank believes that.
Yu Yongding, a member of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, pointed out at the beginning of the exchange rate reform that China is entering a long-term gradual adjustment process and will not cause major changes in the RMB, "because stability and flexibility are the principles." The golden mean is still the main tone. "The trade surplus reached $654.38+030 billion, and the balance of payments surplus reached $200 billion, which is unprecedented. The international call for RMB appreciation may heat up again. " Tao Dong, chief economist of Credit Suisse Asia, told this newspaper on July 12.
On the first anniversary of the exchange rate reform, the American factor that has not disappeared will begin to play again. "There is a lack of flexibility on the RMB issue because there are still many political issues on the exchange rate issue." Tao Dong said.
As Chen Xingdong, chief economist of Baifuqin China, said, China's economy has entered the most complicated period since the reform and opening up. The sharp rise in asset prices, whether the economy is overheated and whether there is a bubble have become the focus. The undervaluation of RMB has always been considered as the root cause of the current economic complexity.
"The central bank needs to convince other government departments that RMB appreciation is in China's interest, and administrative measures are useful in the short term, but not in the long run." Wang Zhihao told this newspaper.
"The central bank is gradually gaining more and more independent influence on interest rate policy. Therefore, the central bank can make better use of these monetary policy tools, and constantly increase the deposit reserve ratio and issue bills. However, because other departments have their own views and influences on the exchange rate issue, this also limits the ability of the central bank to use exchange rate policy to balance the economy. " Wang Zhihao said.
"The exchange rate will remain the last resort of the China government to curb credit growth and investment overheating. In the coming year, moderate appreciation will remain the main tone, and the annual appreciation will not exceed 3%-4%. " Wang Zhihao said, "However, a lot of basic work has been completed, and now it is time to relax restrictions and appreciate."
Jonathan Anderson, an economist at UBS, also believes that the RMB will appreciate gradually, but there will be no second revaluation, and predicts that the RMB will reach 7.8 to 1 against the US dollar at the end of the year. Anderson's reason is: "The one-off appreciation of RMB last year only released a directional signal to the market, which also shows that China is serious about exchange rate adjustment. 12 months later, it all became clear that another' surprise' of RMB would hurt exporters and farmers. The current range allows more two-way appreciation, and too much hot money poured in the first half of last year. "
Yun Fei, president of China Merchants Bank, predicted that in order to curb investment overheating and solve trade imbalance, the pace of RMB exchange rate appreciation will be slightly accelerated in the second half of the year, and the annual exchange rate will appreciate by 2.5%-3%. At the end of the year, the RMB exchange rate will rise to 7.85- 1 USD against 7.9 yuan RMB.
On July 13, Yu Yongding, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank, also said at an international seminar that the RMB exchange rate should continue to appreciate gradually, which is a more effective way to solve the imbalance of international payments.
It seems that moderation and stability will remain the key words of RMB appreciation, because rapid appreciation will inevitably bring many negative effects.
"Think back to Japan in the 1980s. The rapid appreciation of the yen from 1985 triggered a series of events, which led to two major asset bubbles in Japan and began deflation and frequent recession that lasted for 10 years. China certainly does not want to repeat the same mistakes, but how to avoid this situation will be a very difficult thing. " A year ago, Wang Zhihao commented on the exchange rate reform.
Tao Dong reminded that "the rapid appreciation of the renminbi will bring Japanese-style austerity."
Zeng Yijing, head of financial services rating at Standard & Poor's, even warned with quantitative test results that in the case of rapid appreciation of RMB or sharp rise of benchmark interest rate, the profits of enterprises will be greatly reduced, which will have a negative impact on the asset quality of banks, and the slow change of interest rate or exchange rate can significantly weaken the degree of adverse impact.
However, Henry Merritt Paulson, the new US Treasury Secretary, seems to have brought a new "American factor". "Although he is a China hand, I don't think the decision makers in Washington or any Americans can influence the RMB issue in China." Wang Zhihao said.
"No matter where he says anything, he still maintains an official attitude on the RMB issue," Tao Dong said. "He may not force the renminbi to appreciate sharply, but he will focus on opening China's financial market and protecting intellectual property rights."
Ren Yongli, global head of Morgan Stanley's foreign exchange research department, once said that this is not the end, and investors will continue to play the game of guessing China's intentions.
Even though one year has passed since the exchange rate reform, the game of RMB exchange rate has just begun. (