Alleviate the peak of debt repayment. At that time, Russia's total internal and external debt was not high, nor did it exceed 44% of GDP. The main problem is the concentration of debt repayment, and the short-term debt solvency is insufficient. At that time, most of Russia's debts were short-term debts with a loan term of less than one year, and a serious debt crisis will occur in the next three years. Due to the government crisis from March to April, residents' distrust of the government increased, and the purchase of government bonds decreased significantly. 1In April, 1998, Russia issued less than 20 billion rubles of national debt, while the debt service in that month was as high as 36.7 billion rubles. Borrowing new debts can't repay old debts, and the financial situation is even more tense. At that time, it was estimated that 198 would pay back 365,438.8 billion rubles every month in the second half of the year. If no one buys the new national debt, it will be difficult to collect taxes, and the debt service will exceed 40% of the national monthly income. Therefore, it is necessary to change the structure of debt repayment period and use long-term new debt to repay short-term old debt to stagger the peak of debt repayment. The IMF originally promised to provide $654.38+0.48 billion in three phases during the year, which undoubtedly played a role in delaying the peak of Russian debt repayment. Originally thought, Russia's financial crisis may be eased by the IMF and western powers, and it will be stable for at least half a year. Unexpectedly, less than a month later, in mid-August, the third serious financial turmoil broke out, leading to the collapse of the new government in Kiriyenko.

The direct cause of this financial turmoil is that the Kyrgyz government rashly implemented three tough financial stability measures, which caused investors to lose confidence in the government, and Yeltsin changed horses again, further aggravating the severity of the crisis.

On August 1, the Kyrgyz government launched an economic plan to stabilize finance, and investors have no confidence in whether it can produce the expected results. Due to the severe socio-economic situation, it is difficult for the government to increase revenue and reduce expenditure immediately, which is reflected in the reluctance of foreign investors to buy Russian securities in the form of bonds. On the contrary, they sell their own securities. On August 10, which was called "Black Monday" by Russian newspapers, the price of the old bonds owed by the former Soviet Union to foreign commercial banks fell to 36% of the face value, and the newly issued European bonds in Russia were only worth half. On August 1 1 day, the yield of short-term government bonds in Russian domestic securities market soared to 100%. In order to enhance investor confidence, the Russian government paid off the national debt due on August 12. The Ministry of Finance allocated $6,543.8 billion of the $4.8 billion loan from the IMF on July 3 13 for repayment, and the remaining $3.8 billion increased foreign exchange reserves. I thought some of the 5.3 billion rubles paid that day would be bought back. As we all know, the debtor not only did not buy new bonds, but also spent most of the settlement money on buying dollars, and the rest either withdrew from the market or stayed in their hands waiting for the opportunity. The next day (1August 3), Soros, a great international speculator, publicly urged the Russian government to devalue the ruble 15% ~ 25% in newspapers and periodicals. On the same day, the price index of 100 industrial stocks calculated by the Russian Interfax news agency plummeted to only 26% at the beginning of the year, down 74%. In anticipation of the devaluation of the ruble, some foreign banks have asked Russian banks to repay their loans in advance. During this period, Standard & Poor's Computer Statistics Services and Moody's Investment Services announced that they would reduce their foreign debts to Russia and the credit ratings of major Russian banks and large industrial groups. At the same time, the tax revenue in July was only 654.38+0.2 billion rubles, and the implementation budget was not less than 20 billion rubles per month, which was a big gap. Under these internal and external pressures, the government panicked and didn't know how to deal with it. Seeing that China's bonds will gradually mature, the government will repay 24 billion US dollars of domestic and foreign debts before the end of the year. At that time, the foreign exchange reserves were only $654.38+07 billion, which was not enough to pay off debts, and it was even more difficult to intervene in the foreign exchange market. In this situation of internal and external troubles, the government rashly decided to introduce three tough emergency measures in August 17, namely: First, expand the floating range of the ruble exchange rate and lower the upper limit of the ruble exchange rate to 9.5∶ 1. This actually devalued the ruble against the US dollar from 6.295 to 9.5, with a depreciation rate of over 50%. The market has this expectation, and the ruble exchange rate will inevitably plummet in the future, falling to 20 ~ 21:1within/kloc-0 days, which will wash away the ruble exchange rate that has been stable for more than three years.

The second extension of 90 days to repay the due foreign debt is expected to be $654.38+0.5 billion.

The third conversion of domestic debt repayment period is to convert the US$ 20 billion treasury bonds due before199965438+February 3 1 into medium-term treasury bonds with three, four and five years. Before the end of the conversion, the national debt market suspended trading.

As soon as these three measures were announced, they immediately caused public outcry, the stock plummeted and stopped trading, and the ruble exchange rate plummeted. Later, the central bank simply announced that the ruble was allowed to float freely, and people squeezed the ruble for dollars, or snapped up consumer goods. The ruble exchange rate fell and the stock market plummeted. By August 28th, the market price of 100 stocks included in the Russian Interfax news agency composite index had fallen to159.2 billion US dollars, which was 85% lower than the 103356 billion US dollars at the beginning of the year, and then it simply closed down and was worthless.