In 2022 last year, I went to the bank to do business, and found that the three-year fixed deposit rate was 3. 15%, and the five-year fixed deposit rate was only 2.75%. Why is it upside down? Think about it later. Is it possible for the interest rate to reach 2% in five years? 10 years later, is it possible that the interest rate will be 1%? Is it possible that the annual interest rate of 15 is 0%? Is it possible to bear interest rates after 16?
Let's look at the bank interest this year. It went down again, didn't it?
Because in the past year, bank deposits have soared!
In recent years, affected by the epidemic, the economy has shown a downward trend. Whether it is small and medium-sized enterprises, the real economy, or some large factories, there have been layoffs and closures, and many people can't find jobs, so many people dare not blindly consume. Don't talk about the elderly now. Young people are more and more aware of saving money, and everyone is more inclined to a stable income, so more people will choose to deposit their money in the bank.
According to the latest data of the central bank, in 2022, residents' deposits increased by 17.84 trillion, a record high! Almost twice as much as 202 1. However, personal and corporate loans have decreased. In the first half of last year, the new loans for residents nationwide were the lowest in nearly 10 years!
I wonder if anyone has found that there is not as much banking activity this year as before. Is it because banks don't need to withdraw money? Actually, it's not, because most people are more and more aware of saving money now, and they have already put their money in the bank, so there is no need for the bank to continue to withdraw money.
Banks take deposits, but they can't lend. Wouldn't that be in their hands? Just like an enterprise can't sell a lot of goods, it's hard to think about it! !
Deposits go up, loans go down, there are more deposits, and banks worry about more money. So it is inevitable to cut interest rates! ! !
In addition, if everyone saves money, it will also affect economic development. Reducing interest rates is also a means to promote consumption and investment.
When the economy is overheated, the state will raise interest rates to slow down the flow of funds and cool down the economy. When the economic growth slows down, the interest rate will be lowered in turn, thus reducing the financing cost of enterprises and achieving the purpose of revitalizing the economy.
After all, ordinary people like to save money, which will inevitably reduce consumption and personal investment. This is because they are not optimistic about the future expectations and their risk awareness is enhanced. The increase in corporate deposits reflects the lack of confidence of profitable enterprises in the future market. However, low consumption and investment may lead to macroeconomic contraction, which is not conducive to sustained economic growth.
You know, in the late 1990 s, because ordinary people liked to save money and didn't want to spend it, they set the interest rate very low and collected interest tax at the rate of 20%. In other words, I hope you can spend the money in the bank or move to the stock market.
Finally, the negative interest rate I mentioned earlier is real. There are many countries with negative interest rates in the world, such as Sweden (deposit rate-1%), Switzerland (deposit rate -0.32%), Hungary (deposit rate -0. 15%), Norway (deposit rate -0.25%) and the euro zone (deposit rate). In addition, Japan, which is close to us, also has a negative deposit interest rate.
From a national perspective, negative deposit interest rate is a relatively slow development of the country (China's development is also slowing down). In order to encourage everyone to spend and invest, it will stimulate the growth of social reproduction, thus promoting employment, increasing the income of workers and promoting the overall economic development of society. Therefore, it is beneficial for the country to implement negative interest rates and stimulate the economy. But negative interest rates are not very friendly to depositors.
What should we do in the face of lower and lower interest rates?