Bubble economy: the excessive growth of virtual capital and the continuous expansion of related transactions are increasingly divorced from the growth of physical capital and industrial sectors, the prices of financial securities and real estate soar, and speculative transactions are extremely active. Bubble economy lies in financial speculation, which leads to false prosperity of social economy, and finally the bubble will burst, leading to social shock and even economic collapse. (Encyclopedia section)
Generally speaking, in the process of economic development, in some important sectors, especially finance and real estate, due to the speculation of speculators, the economic development in some areas is overheated and too fast, showing a scene of "prosperity", but this kind of "prosperity" lacks material foundation, just like a typical castle in the air, which looks beautiful above but has no solid foundation below. Speculators often just let the public see the thriving pavilions, but cover up the false foundation, which makes people mistakenly think that the economy in this field is "real prosperity" and follow suit. However, because there is no solid foundation, once the number of speculators and their followers exceeds the market capacity, the market demand is far less than the supply, and the result is often the bursting of the bubble.
The most typical case is the bursting of Japan's real estate bubble economy in the last century. At that time, Japanese real estate rose. At first, Japan built a large number of houses because of urban development. At this time, a group of speculators seized the opportunity. On the one hand, they used the funds and preferential policies at hand to hoard houses, on the other hand, they hired pushers to speculate, which caused the prices of houses to rise and the prices would rise sharply. If they don't buy it now, they can't afford it in the future.
In fact, at that time, the supply and demand of Japanese housing was only in short supply at the early stage of development, which was used by speculators for hoarding and speculation. At that time, the unexplained shortage of Japanese national housing supply and rising housing prices could not help but believe the speculators' remarks, which led to the upsurge of people snapping up houses. Due to hoarding and snapping up, it is difficult to buy houses in the market, and house prices continue to rise.
But in fact, the housing supply cannot be insufficient forever, and the housing demand will not increase indefinitely. Housing speculation overdraws the housing demand and purchasing power of Japanese citizens. People who can afford to buy a house too early also lead to an increase in house prices. People who can't afford it can't afford it, which leads to social unrest.
Of course, speculators will not consider such social problems and social benefits (if they do, they will not speculate). Speculators are still advocating that theory, but the supply and demand of houses are virtual and the purchasing power is real. When all those who can afford to buy a house and those who want to follow the trend borrow money to buy a house, the number of people who can buy a house will gradually decrease, which is not enough to support the inflated house price. More people borrow money to buy high-priced houses, resulting in it. However, as mentioned above, because the purchasing power of the house has been overdrawn by speculators, when these loan buyers are forced to sell their houses, no one can buy them-speculators naturally understand the original real estate bubble. At this time, they will not pay for a house, and the market purchasing power has already been overdrawn. Who will buy a house at this time? However, the pressure of borrowing is getting bigger and bigger, but the house can't be realized, so some anxious people start to sell their houses at reduced prices-they can't hold on. Once the price is reduced, it will cause greater panic among other homeowners-especially those who still have loans. When house prices began to fall, some people who were not in a hurry to borrow money to buy a house began to worry, and creditors began to force debts, fearing that the depreciation of houses would make it difficult for them to recover their costs. However, the debtor is eager to sell the house and cash out under double pressure. However, after a large number of houses are pushed off the market, the supply exceeds demand. The more so, the remaining purchasing power begins to wait and see, so the falsely pushed house prices begin to return to rationality. At this time, it depends on how high the bubble of inflated house prices is. The bigger the bubble, the more serious the problem will be when the bubble bursts.
The emergence of bubble economy should first produce an economic bubble, and the two complement each other.
Conditions for forming an economic bubble:
1, speculators have sufficient funds as support and a speculative market environment.
2, the formation and development of the bubble economy lack of restraint mechanisms
That is to say: relatively relaxed market environment, relatively superior economic development policies, sufficient funds, lack of necessary regulatory constraints, and most importantly, speculation in this field are the five conditions that lead to the bubble (personal summary)
Generally speaking, when a certain market area is about to be developed, the state and local governments will introduce support policies, and the market competition pressure will be less and unconstrained, and speculators will not only have opportunities but also have abundant funds, which will lead to economic bubbles.
As far as moonstone is concerned, the following conditions are needed to trigger a bubble economy:
1, speculation is an important field.
In recent years, due to the problem of speculators, the prices of agricultural and sideline products such as mung beans and garlic have soared, but no one said that there was a bubble economy in the field of agricultural and sideline products. Why? Quite simply, mung beans and garlic are just an auxiliary material in people's diet. Eat if you have it, but you can't eat if you are expensive. Besides, these things can't be preserved for a long time. The state has strict policies and regulations on basic food crops such as rice and wheat, and individuals and collectives are prohibited from hoarding and speculating. However, there are no restrictions on agricultural and sideline products, because these are only things that improve people's living standards and have nothing to do with the basis of survival. Before, a few so-called scholars and experts advocated the absurd remarks that "mung beans can cure all diseases" everywhere on TV stations, which undoubtedly misled consumers, and these have been investigated.
But why is there a bubble economy in Japan's real estate industry? Quite simply, food, clothing, housing and transportation are the basics of human survival. A house is for living. Without a house, there is no place to live. There is no place to live, a safe life is not guaranteed, and even a survival problem. Speculators can speculate on house prices, because the house is what everyone needs. If it is expensive, you can eat mung beans and garlic, but if it is expensive, you can't live.
2. Speculative goods are virtual and cannot be directly contacted.
The reason why the economic bubble appears in the financial field is that financial products are often just changes in numbers, and then linked to real life through state machinery, and financial products are invisible to people.
It is true that people see that pigs can eat pork. When someone says that the pork industry is booming and will make a fortune, people will see it and make a judgment.
But finance is different. Its products are virtual, so it is difficult to see and see them intuitively. Only a few people who know the inside story can accurately touch them.
Therefore, this gives speculators room.
Typical southeast Asian financial turmoil
At that time, after sweeping the European financial industry, some speculators in developed countries in Europe and America turned their attention to Asia. Speculators have prepared a lot of money as their backing. First, they borrowed a lot of money from these Southeast Asian countries, and they speculated in the financial market to increase the market value of the country's currency. For example, a certain currency, originally 100 yuan, can be changed into 1 US dollar. Now financial promoters have achieved 80: 0 through speculation. Because they borrowed money from 100: 1, and now it is 80: 1. Although there is no change in reality, the money they borrowed has increased invisibly. At a certain time, they began to sell the country's currency and exchange it for dollars, pounds and other currencies, which led to a sharp increase in the supply of the country's money market, and the original appreciation scene suddenly turned into a plunge. Naturally, they can sell all their money, convert it into dollars at the high level of 80: 1, and then devalue their money to 90: 1, 11or even more. When they reach their psychological price, when they repay the loan, it has reached 120: 1, and when they exchange it, it is 80: 1, deducting the interest difference, that is, they borrowed 100, and then 100. They first changed the value of 100 yuan from 1 to 1.25, then changed it to 1.25, and then devalued 100 yuan to about 0.87, and then deducted interest. So they got 1.25 and paid less than 6545.
At the cost, these countries have experienced economic turmoil and financial instability, and the money on hand of ordinary people has experienced ups and downs, and wealth has shrunk, leading to social problems.
Of course, the bubble economy is not inevitable, it is actually a deformed economy.
To prevent bubble economy, we should know three factors that form bubble economy.
1, speculators. 2. Boost. 3. On the spot.
Strict monitoring in any field can successfully prevent and eliminate the bubble economy.
Let's talk about the financial turmoil in Southeast Asia. At that time, the storm swept through Southeast Asia, including Hong Kong, but only Hong Kong had the least impact and Thailand recovered the fastest.
First of all, Hong Kong escaped the financial turmoil because of the support of the Mainland. At that time, speculators invaded Hong Kong's financial market on a large scale. Since Chinese mainland banned foreign exchange speculation (since around 1950, the mainland cracked down on financial speculation and arrested a large number of financial speculators in Shanghai), the mainland policy banned speculation in this field and put an end to the bubble of currency speculation from the source. Hong Kong has a loose policy, but with the support of the mainland, when speculators hoarded Hong Kong dollars and began to sell them, the mainland ate a lot of Hong Kong dollars. In this way, Hong Kong's foreign exchange reserves are sufficient, and the Hong Kong dollar is pushed up. However, when they want it to depreciate sharply, they encounter strong obstacles. As a speculator, it is almost impossible to fight against a huge state machine. So speculators have sold out Hong Kong dollars, but mainland dollars are still very rich, and the pressure of repaying loans is forcing them.
Thailand's fastest recovery is attributed to Supachai's new financial policy. At that time, the Thai baht was almost crushed by speculators in the financial turmoil. At that time, many Southeast Asian countries accepted the advice of the International Monetary Fund, only Supachai. After analysis, he thought that this proposal was not suitable for Thailand's financial and economic recovery, so he refused, and instead used his own set of policies suitable for Thailand to strengthen the supervision of the financial industry, increase state intervention and stabilize the exchange rate. This policy is a remedial measure, that is, to plug the loopholes at the source after the problems occur.
These attacks are aimed at speculators, who are the source of bubbles, but not enough to generate bubbles alone, and then there is a boost.
There are two kinds of boosting force: conscious boosting and unconscious boosting.
The so-called conscious, is deliberately helping speculators, such as some stock black village, often some so-called experts in the major media hype a stock will rise, there is good news or something, to lure investors to make big money for the bookmakers. Also called "trust".
The other is the unconscious boost, or the above. When some so-called experts advocate, some investors who don't understand believe the so-called "authoritative news" of experts, not only buy stocks themselves, but also publicize them to relatives and friends around them. This is hype. Because of mutual understanding and trust, their relatives and friends were persuaded to join the team, like rats dragging children.
For the former, the policy is generally severely cracked down, and a considerable number of so-called stock evaluation experts and fund managers are prosecuted or even jailed for false propaganda.
For the latter, it is generally through policy propaganda to make it return to rationality.
The third point is the field of speculation.
As Moonstone said before, what can constitute a bubble economy must be an important field. No matter how much mung bean and garlic are hyped, it is impossible to form an economic bubble, because it is dispensable, but finance and real estate are related to the economic foundation and people's livelihood, and such fields are also the most prone to bubbles.
Generally speaking, corresponding to its bubble, corresponding policies are needed to regulate it.
1, ban, ban, strike hard.
Chinese mainland is a country where speculation in the financial sector is strictly prohibited, and a few economic crimes have been executed. Speculation in some fields can be avoided by strict legal means-after all, life is more important than money.
2. Restraint and supervision
For example, in the real estate industry, after the real estate financial crisis, the United States began to gradually adjust its housing policy. For example, the original "everyone has a house" policy began to adjust, and the unrealistic slogan policy can only encourage the formation of a bubble.
The above is the moonstone, and I have written a long personal analysis. .............