1In June 1997, a financial storm broke out in Asia, and the development process of this storm was very complicated. By the end of 1998, it can be roughly divided into three stages: June 1997 to February12; 1998 1 month to1998 July; 1998 July to the end of the year. 1, the first stage:1997 On July 2, Thailand announced that it would abandon the fixed exchange rate system and implement a floating exchange rate, which triggered a financial storm sweeping Southeast Asia. On the same day, the exchange rate of Thai baht against the US dollar fell by 17%, and financial markets such as foreign exchange were in chaos. Under the influence of the fluctuation of Thai baht, Philippine peso, Indonesian rupiah and Malaysian ringgit have become the targets of international speculators. In August, Malaysia gave up its efforts to defend Ringgit. The Singapore dollar, which has been strong, has also been hit. Although Indonesia is the latest country to be "infected", it is the most seriously affected. 10 year 10 in late October, international speculators moved to Hong Kong, an international financial center, aiming at Hong Kong's linked exchange rate system. Taiwan Province authorities suddenly abandoned the exchange rate of the new Taiwan dollar, depreciating by 3.46% a day, which increased the pressure on the Hong Kong dollar and Hong Kong stock markets. 65438+1On October 23rd, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell121.47 points; On the 28th, it fell 162 1.80 points, falling below the 9000 mark. Faced with fierce attacks from international financial speculators, the Hong Kong SAR Government reiterated that it would not change the current exchange rate system, and the Hang Seng Index rose to 10000. Then, 1 1 in mid-June, a financial storm broke out in South Korea in East Asia. 17 In June, the exchange rate of the Korean won against the US dollar fell to a record1008:1. 2 1, the south Korean government had to ask the international monetary fund for help, and the international monetary fund temporarily controlled the storm. However, on 65438+February 13, the exchange rate of Korean won against the US dollar fell to 1737.60: 1. The Korean won storm also hit the Japanese financial industry, which has invested heavily in South Korea. 1997 a series of Japanese banks and securities companies went bankrupt in the second half of the year. As a result, the Southeast Asian financial turmoil has evolved into the Asian financial turmoil. 2. The second stage: 1998 At the beginning of this year, Indonesia's financial turmoil resumed. Facing the worst economic recession in history, the prescription prescribed by the International Monetary Fund for Indonesia failed to achieve the expected results. On February 1 1, the Indonesian government announced the implementation of the linked exchange rate system with a fixed exchange rate between the Indonesian rupiah and the US dollar to stabilize the Indonesian rupiah. This move was unanimously opposed by the International Monetary Fund, the United States and Western Europe. The International Monetary Fund threatened to withdraw its aid to Indonesia. Indonesia is caught in a double storm of politics and economy. On February 6/kloc-0, the exchange rate of the Indonesian rupiah against the US dollar fell below 10000: 1. Affected by this, the Southeast Asian currency market once again set off waves, with the Singapore dollar, Malaysian dollar, Thai baht and Philippine peso falling one after another. It was not until April 8 that Indonesia and the International Monetary Fund reached an agreement on a new economic reform plan that Southeast Asian currency markets were temporarily calm. 1997 the southeast Asian financial turmoil has put the Japanese economy, which is closely related to it, in trouble. The exchange rate of Japanese yen dropped from 1 15 at the end of June 1997 to 1 USD at the beginning of April 1998. In May and June, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen fell all the way, once approaching the mark of 150 yen 1 US dollar. With the sharp depreciation of the yen, the international financial situation is more uncertain, and the Asian financial turmoil continues to deepen. 3. The third stage: 65438+1At the beginning of August, 1998, when the American stock market was in turmoil and the yen exchange rate continued to fall, international speculators launched a new round of attacks on Hong Kong. The Hang Seng Index has fallen to over 6600 points. The Hong Kong SAR Government retaliated, and the HKMA used the Exchange Fund to enter the stock market and futures market, absorbing Hong Kong dollars sold by international speculators and stabilizing the foreign exchange market at the level of 7.75 Hong Kong dollars 1 US dollar. After nearly a month of hard work, international speculators suffered heavy losses and failed to realize their attempt to use Hong Kong as a "super ATM" again. While international speculators lost in Hong Kong, they lost in Russia. 17 On August 7th, the Russian central bank announced that it would expand the floating range of the ruble against the US dollar to 6.0 ~ 9.5: 1 during the year, and postpone the repayment of foreign debts and government bonds. On September 2, the ruble depreciated by 70%, which led to a sharp drop in the Russian stock market and foreign exchange market, triggering a financial storm and even an economic and political storm. The sudden change of Russian policy has greatly hurt international speculators who have invested huge amounts of money in Russian stock market, and has led to the overall violent fluctuations in the foreign exchange markets of American and European stock markets. If the Asian financial turmoil was still regional before this, then the outbreak of the Russian financial turmoil shows that the Asian financial turmoil has gone beyond the regional scope and has global significance. By the end of 1998, the Russian economy was still in trouble. 1999, the financial turmoil is over. What are the causes of the Asian financial turmoil? I think this is what many people want to know. After synthesizing various viewpoints, the author thinks that it can be divided into direct trigger factors, internal basic factors and world political and economic factors. 1, the direct trigger factors include: (1) the impact of hot money in the international financial market, represented by george soros and a capitalist group that supports him. At present, there are about $7 trillion of international capital flowing around the world. Once international speculators find out which country or region is profitable, they will immediately attack the currency of that country or region through speculation to make huge profits in the short term. George soros, a representative figure of international speculators, said: "financial crocodile" and "dozing wolf" are the names for this financial geek. He once said, "As far as financial operation is concerned, it has no morality or immorality, it is just an operation. Financial market does not belong to the category of morality, it is not immoral, and morality does not exist here at all, because it has its own rules of the game. I am a participant in the financial market. I will play this game according to the established rules. I will not violate these rules, so I won't feel guilty or responsible. Judging from the Asian financial turmoil, whether I speculate or not has no effect on the occurrence of financial events. It will still happen without hype. I don't think it's immoral to speculate in foreign currency. On the other hand, I abide by the operating rules. I respect these rules and care about them. As a moral person who cares about them, I want to ensure that these rules are conducive to building a good society, so I advocate changing some rules. I think some rules need to be improved. If improvement and improvement affect my own interests, I will still support it, because the rules that need to be improved may be the cause of the incident. " As we all know, Soros's hype about Thai baht is the fuse of the Asian financial turmoil. He is an absolutely powerful financier, but he gains huge capital by playing with the political power of Asian countries. (2) Some Asian countries have improper foreign exchange policies. In order to attract foreign investment, they maintain a fixed exchange rate on the one hand and expand financial liberalization on the other, which provides opportunities for international speculators. For example, Thailand deregulated the capital market at 1992 before the financial system was straightened out, which made the short-term capital flow unimpeded and provided conditions for foreign speculators to speculate on the Thai baht. (3) In order to maintain a fixed exchange rate system, these countries have used foreign exchange reserves for a long time to make up for their deficits, resulting in an increase in foreign debt. (4) The foreign debt structure of these countries is unreasonable. In the case of more short-term and medium-term debts, once the outflow of foreign capital exceeds the inflow of foreign capital, and the domestic foreign exchange reserves are insufficient to make up for it, the devaluation of the country's currency is inevitable. 2. Internal basic factors include: (1) the high growth of overdraft economy and the expansion of non-performing assets. Maintaining a high economic growth rate is the common aspiration of developing countries. When the conditions for rapid growth become insufficient, in order to maintain the speed, these countries turn to foreign debt to maintain economic growth. However, due to the poor economic development, by the mid-1990s, some Asian countries were unable to repay their debts. In southeast Asian countries, the bubble blown by real estate only brought bad debts and bad debts of bank loans; As for South Korea, because it is too easy for large enterprises to obtain funds from banks, once the business conditions of enterprises are not good, the non-performing assets will expand immediately. The existence of a large number of non-performing assets in turn affects the confidence of investors. (2) The market system is immature. First, the government excessively interferes with the allocation of resources, especially the loan investment and projects in the financial system; The other is that the financial system, especially the supervision system, is not perfect. (3) The defect of "export substitution" mode. The "export substitution" model is an important reason for the economic success of many Asian countries. However, this model also has three shortcomings: first, when the economy develops to a certain stage, the production cost will increase and the export will be restrained, resulting in the imbalance of international payments in these countries; Second, when this export-oriented strategy becomes the development strategy of many countries, it will form mutual extrusion; Third, the gradual progress of products is a necessary condition for continuing to implement export substitution, and it is impossible to maintain competitiveness simply by relying on the cheap advantages of resources. These countries in Asia have not solved the above problems after achieving rapid growth. (4) The economic model of Asian countries leads to. New Matai, Japan and South Korea are all export-oriented countries. They are highly dependent on the world market. The shake of the Asian economy will inevitably lead to a situation that will affect the whole body. Take Thailand as an example. Whether Thai baht should be bought and sold in the international market is not dominated by the government, nor does it have sufficient foreign exchange reserves. Facing the speculation of financiers, the national economy is vulnerable. The economy determines politics, so the political situation in Thailand is turbulent. 3. The world political and economic factors mainly include: (1) the negative impact of economic globalization. Economic globalization makes the economic ties of countries around the world closer and closer, but its negative effects can not be ignored, such as the intensification of interest conflicts between nation-States, the enhancement of capital mobility, and the difficulty in preventing storms. (2) Unreasonable international division of labor, trade and monetary system are unfavorable to third world countries. In the field of production, high-tech products and high-tech itself are still produced in developed countries, and the technical content of products is gradually declining to underdeveloped countries. Least developed countries can only do assembly work and produce primary products. In the field of exchange, developed countries can buy primary products at low prices and monopolize high prices to promote their own products. In the field of international finance and currency, the whole global financial system and system is also beneficial to financial powers. (3) The influence of American political and economic interests and policies. 1949, Oriental Group, the predecessor of New China, was established. As the number one power of capitalism, the United States has a sense of storm. He established a capitalist United front in the Asia-Pacific region through strong economic backing: South Korea, Japan, Taiwan Province Province and even Southeast Asia all became economic vassals of the United States. This has brought economic support to the rapid development of some Asian countries. In the 1970s, the economies of some countries in Southeast Asia developed rapidly. But in 199 1, the disintegration of the Soviet Union marked the disintegration of the socialist lineup. Of course, the United States did not allow the Asian economy to continue to develop like this, so it began to recover economic losses. For Soros's behavior, he is conniving.

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