The financial crisis, also known as the financial storm, refers to the sharp, short-term and super-cycle deterioration of all or most financial indicators of a country or several countries and regions (such as short-term interest rates, monetary assets, securities, real estate, land (price), the number of commercial bankruptcies and the number of financial institution failures).

Financial crisis can be divided into currency crisis, debt crisis and banking crisis. In recent years, the financial crisis has increasingly presented some mixed forms of crisis.

Its characteristic is that people's expectations of the future economy are more pessimistic, the currency of the whole region has depreciated sharply, and the economic aggregate and scale have lost a lot, which has hit economic growth. It is often accompanied by a large number of business failures, rising unemployment rate, general economic depression in society, and sometimes even social unrest or national political turmoil. In response to the Asian financial crisis that shocked the world, Zhu Rongji firmly stated on many important occasions that "the RMB will never depreciate and will not increase the crisis and difficulties in other Asian countries and regions." "We are part of Asia, we are in the same boat, and we will never take advantage of people's crisis. "The image of the China government represented by Zhu Rongji has won the respect and praise of the international community. Media at home and abroad generally believe that Zhu Rongji is leading the people of China out of the predicament in the wave of economic reform. The best person to go to the light. (The above content is taken from On the Linguistic Features of Zhu Rongji's Speech, Journal of Applied Writing 1998,No. 10).

The current financial crisis is caused by the bubble of American real estate market. In some ways, this financial crisis is similar to other crises that broke out every four years after the end of World War II 10.

However, there are essential differences between financial crises. The current crisis marks the end of the era of credit expansion with the US dollar as the global reserve currency. Other cyclical crises are part of a larger boom-bust process. The current financial crisis is the peak of the super boom cycle that lasted for more than 60 years.

The boom-bust cycle usually revolves around the credit situation and always contains a prejudice or misunderstanding. This is usually a failure to realize that there is a reflexive and circular relationship between the willingness to lend and the value of collateral. If credit is easy to obtain, it will bring demand, which will push up the value of real estate; In turn, this situation increases the amount of available credit. Bubbles occur when people buy real estate and expect to benefit from mortgage refinancing. In recent years, the prosperity of American housing market is a proof. The super boom that lasted for 60 years is a more complicated example.

Whenever the credit expansion is in trouble, the financial authorities take intervention measures to inject liquidity into the market and find other ways to stimulate economic growth. This forms an asymmetric incentive system, the so-called moral hazard, which promotes the increasingly strong expansion of credit. This system was so successful that people began to believe in former US President Ronald? Ronald Reagan called it "the magic of the market"-I called it "market fundamentalism". Fundamentalists believe that the market will tend to be balanced and let market participants pursue their own interests, which is most beneficial to the interests of the same group of people. This is obviously a misunderstanding, because it is not the market itself that keeps the financial market from collapsing, but the intervention of the authorities. However, market fundamentalism began to become the dominant way of thinking in the 1980s, when the financial market was just beginning to globalize and the current account deficit began to appear in the United States.

Globalization has enabled the United States to absorb savings from other parts of the world and consume more than its own output. In 2006, the US current account deficit reached 6.2% of its gross domestic product (GDP). By introducing increasingly complex products and more generous terms, financial markets encourage consumers to borrow. Whenever the global financial system is in danger, the financial authorities will intervene and play a role in fueling the situation. Since 1980, the supervision has been relaxed, even to the point of name only.

The subprime mortgage crisis made financial institutions in developed countries re-evaluate risks and allocate assets. In the next two years, funds from developed countries will reverse the influx trend and strengthen the stability of local financial institutions. As a result, the stock market prices of emerging market countries will be greatly reduced, the local currencies will depreciate, the investment scale will be reduced, and the economic growth will slow down or even decline. The Baltic countries and India are the most vulnerable. The new financial crisis will bring pressure to China's economic growth, but China capital is also facing a good opportunity to "go global" and integrate the corresponding enterprises.

How to solve the financial crisis

If China only imports oil to make the RMB appreciate, it is better to directly subsidize oil with foreign currency savings.

To carry out structural governance in China, we must first clean up the credit system, especially follow up the huge amount of money that has been lent. If there is a gap in this respect, we must print more tickets to reach a new balance point through rising prices (domestic RMB depreciation), which is the price that China people must pay. If there is no problem in this part, stop the appreciation of RMB immediately, spend the reserved dollars as soon as possible, or invest in the United States and sell real estate instead of saving American financial institutions. In this way, the United States will not put pressure on the renminbi and save the American economy. Whether China people make money or lose money in the future is good for now.

Deliberately protecting China's stock market and real estate market is the embodiment of China's reform achievements, especially real estate. All countries in the world regard real estate as the levee (the last line of defense) of their own economy. Once it is endangered, it will be saved at all costs. It is normal that the real estate market in China is overheated. The government's suppression will only create opportunities for foreign hot money to intervene and make China people pay a higher price in the future. Special protection should be given to real estate developers. Don't kill pigs and sell meat when pork is rising. It's not the fault of real estate developers that house prices have gone up.

The stock market cannot be saved by foreign capital. Foreign capital will not come to China for no reason, and it is impossible for China to play power games to keep foreign capital in China. In this way, in the case of excess liquidity, the RMB can no longer appreciate and foreign capital will continue to flow in.

China can't drive away foreign capital by devaluation, because China's economy can't do without foreign capital, and driving away will cause economic collapse.

China does not need to implement austerity policies. If so, it will mean that China's own money will be withdrawn from the main battlefield of the economy, foreign capital and hot money will dominate China's economy, and China's own money will eventually become useless.

China should manage the behavior of financial institutions to circle money. China should not blow up the financial bubble, and funds should not flow around in financial institutions. We should not only guide the people, but also invest in industries. Americans are very smart, others engage in high-tech bubbles and internet bubbles. Never heard of the financial bubble, China has a high financial bubble. Can prices not go up? Capital flows at the high end, no longer circulating in the industry, and the economy can still develop without problems.

The state should slow down the reform of non-tradable shares. The split share structure is mainly state-owned shares. It is not a good practice to compete with the market for profits (funds) by lifting the ban. The state can change the term of equity trading from 3 years to 30 years. Dramatically slowing down the lifting of the ban can save the stock market.

The state should strictly control refinancing. For listed companies, efficiency supervision and stock price supervision should be implemented. If the share price falls due to refinancing, it must be paid to shareholders by the refinancing money, so that there will be no malicious money.

As for stamp duty, it is really not a problem. Falling or not is not the key to the problem. The state collected more than 200 billion stamp duty last year. Even if it is not reduced, it will not collect 200 billion this year, and the reduction is not much. Compared with the lifting of the ban on refinancing, it is nothing at all.

The government should deal with structural problems in a targeted manner, and it is not good to cast a spell on China's economy.

There will be a worldwide financial crisis in the next two years.

The subprime mortgage crisis made financial institutions in developed countries re-evaluate risks and allocate assets. In the next two years, funds from developed countries will reverse the influx trend and strengthen the stability of local financial institutions. As a result, the stock market prices of emerging market countries will be greatly reduced, the local currencies will depreciate, the investment scale will be reduced, and the economic growth will slow down or even decline. The Baltic countries and India are the most vulnerable. The new financial crisis will bring pressure to China's economic growth, but China capital is also facing a good opportunity to "go global" and integrate the corresponding enterprises.

The dark clouds of the global financial crisis are gathering, and in the next two years, there will be a new financial crisis around the world. The biggest victims of this financial crisis will be some emerging market countries, which brings challenges and new opportunities to China's economic development.

The reversal of capital flow will lead to financial crisis in emerging market countries.

Why will there be a new financial crisis in the future? This should start with the basic pattern of financial development in developed economies and emerging market economies in the past decade.

Developed economies, represented by the United States and Britain, have benefited from the general trend of globalization in the past decade, and their economies have continued to prosper, but the foundation of this prosperity is actually relatively fragile. These economies have relatively insufficient self-savings, increasing consumption and strengthening the trend of economic financialization. Its concentrated performance is that families use existing financial assets, especially real estate, as collateral to borrow money from banks to support their rising consumption. The inevitable result of the development of this pattern is the rupture of the consumer credit chain, and the concentrated expression is the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States. The subprime mortgage crisis made American financial institutions reevaluate the cost of financial risks and forced them to redistribute assets to reduce risks.

On the other hand, emerging market economies have attracted a lot of capital from developed countries in the past decade. Take Mexican, Russian, Indian, Brazilian and other countries as examples, more than half of the funds in their securities markets come from China. Rising overseas funds not only promote the soaring local asset prices, but also promote the prosperity of the local economy, and at the same time bring about the continuous appreciation of the real exchange rate of the local currency. This series of processes has laid the groundwork for the financial crisis of these economies, among which two regions are the most prominent: First, the three Baltic countries-Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia, where not only the current account deficit exceeds 10% of GDP, but also the fiscal deficit is getting bigger and bigger, and the rising trend of domestic prices is getting worse. Moreover, these countries have also implemented a linked exchange rate system linked to the euro, which undoubtedly wrote down the best chemical reaction formula that led to the financial crisis.

Another very fragile economy is India. Although India's economy has maintained an average annual growth rate of more than 8% in the past three years, its macroeconomic situation is not optimistic: for a long time, India's current account has been in deficit, more than half of the funds in the securities market have come from overseas, the inflation rate has been rising, and the central government has been in deficit for a long time.

Considering the economic situation of developed countries and emerging market countries comprehensively, we can easily draw a conclusion: in the next two years, the world economy is likely to see a reversal of capital flow, that is, the funds that poured into emerging market countries from developed economies in pursuit of high risks and high returns a few years ago will flow back to developed countries in reverse, and the stability of financial institutions in developed countries will be strengthened. The formation of this trend will undoubtedly have a direct impact on developing countries and eventually lead to the formation of financial crisis in emerging market countries.

The difference between the new financial crisis and the Asian financial crisis

This financial crisis may be different from the Asian financial crisis that happened ten years ago. Ten years ago, the Asian financial crisis was mainly manifested as the balance of payments crisis. At that time, a large number of foreign debts due in Asia needed to be repaid, and at the same time, international financial speculators ran on them one after another, which led to insufficient foreign exchange reserves in these countries and forced their currencies to depreciate sharply. The form of the new round of financial crisis is not necessarily marked by the shortage of international payments, because many emerging market countries have relatively high foreign exchange reserves today, and because they have learned the lessons of the Asian financial crisis, these countries have not borrowed on a large scale, but have attracted a large amount of foreign capital through the securities market. However, this does not mean that emerging market countries are not facing the financial crisis. The financial crisis took the form of a large amount of capital return, which led to a sharp drop in the price of the domestic securities market and the depreciation of the local currency, which led to a decline in the scale of local investment, a slowdown in economic growth and even a recession. This is just a mirror image of the economic prosperity and asset price bubbles in these emerging market countries a few years ago. The trigger of this new financial crisis is likely to be a trip to Chu in the Baltic Sea, which may spread from the three Baltic countries to eastern European countries, to South Asia, including India, and to other emerging market countries.

Capital flow should not be liberalized blindly, and fiscal policy should be flexible.

What challenges will China's economy face in the event of such a financial crisis? It is possible that some foreign capital will flee like other emerging market economies, which will have a certain impact on China's balance of payments and bring some deflationary pressure to China's economy, but it is not a bad thing for China's current high-speed operation (in fact, it is too fast). Moreover, this reverse flow of funds will also ease the pressure of RMB appreciation. However, it is undeniable that this reverse flow of funds will have a certain impact on the scale of domestic investment, which will lead to a considerable decline in China's economic growth rate. In addition, the decline in economic growth rate of many emerging market countries will indirectly affect China's economic growth through the decline in demand for China products. These are the impacts of the new financial crisis on China's economy.

We must see that the arrival of this emerging financial crisis has also brought huge "business opportunities" to China. When this round of financial crisis occurs, the asset prices in many emerging markets will be greatly reduced, which will be an excellent opportunity for China's capital to go abroad and invest in these countries, and also the best opportunity for China enterprises to "go abroad" and carry out integrated mergers and acquisitions with corresponding enterprises. Therefore, China's economic circles need to make good preparations in capital and project research. From a macro perspective, macroeconomic policies must take into account the possibility of a new round of financial crisis. On the issue of capital flow, we must be steady and steady, and we must not blindly let go. We should also consider the possibility of a large amount of funds leaving the market and the pressure caused by it. When a financial crisis occurs, the economic growth rate is bound to decline, so our fiscal policy must maintain some flexibility. On the premise of continuing to implement the current prudent fiscal policy, we should make good preparations for projects and funds. Once a new round of financial crisis occurs in neighboring countries, China can turn to a proactive fiscal policy and look for some investment projects with financial security and social benefits.

In short, the risk of a new round of financial crisis has come. China's ships, which are moving at full speed, must take into account the possible impact of the financial turmoil, seize the opportunity and defuse the risks, so that our economic development ships will have a bright future.

Why?

1July 2, 997, the Asian financial turmoil swept through Thailand and the Thai baht depreciated. Soon, the storm swept through Malaysia, Singapore, Japan and South Korea. Break the scene of rapid economic development in Asia. The economies of some Asian economic powers began to slump and the political situation in some countries began to be chaotic.

So, what is the cause of the Asian financial turmoil?

After reading a series of reports about the Asian financial turmoil and my own research, I found the following reasons:

1. george soros's individuals and capitalist groups supporting him;

2. The influence of American economic interests and policies;

3. The economic model of Asian countries leads to.

1. george soros's personal factors and a capitalist group that supports him;

"Financial Predator" and "Sleeping Wolf" are the titles of this financial geek. He once said, "As far as financial operation is concerned, it has no morality or immorality, it is just an operation. Financial market does not belong to the category of morality, it is not immoral, and morality does not exist here at all, because it has its own rules of the game. I am a participant in the financial market. I will play this game according to the established rules. I will not violate these rules, so I won't feel guilty or responsible. Judging from the Asian financial turmoil, whether I speculate or not has no effect on the occurrence of financial events. It will still happen without hype. I don't think it's immoral to speculate in foreign currency. On the other hand, I abide by the operating rules. I respect these rules and care about them. As a moral person who cares about them, I want to ensure that these rules are conducive to building a good society, so I advocate changing some rules. I think some rules need to be improved. If improvement and improvement affect my own interests, I will still support it, because the rules that need to be improved may be the cause of the incident. "

As we all know, Soros's hype about Thai baht is the fuse of the Asian financial turmoil. He is an absolutely powerful and capable financier, but it is obviously despicable to achieve his goal of obtaining huge capital by playing with the political power of Asian countries.

Second, the impact of American economic interests and policies:

1949, Oriental Group, the predecessor of New China, was established. As the number one power of capitalism, the United States has a sense of crisis. He established a capitalist United front in the Asia-Pacific region through strong economic backing: South Korea, Japan, Taiwan Province Province and even Southeast Asia all became economic vassals of the United States. This has brought economic support to the rapid development of some Asian countries. In the 1970s, the economies of some countries in Southeast Asia developed rapidly.

However, in 199 1, the disintegration of the Soviet Union marked the disintegration of the Eastern Group. Of course, the United States did not allow the Asian economy to continue to develop like this, so it began to recover economic losses. For Soros's behavior, he is conniving.

Third, the economic model of Asian countries leads to:

New Matai, Japan and South Korea are all export-oriented countries. They are highly dependent on the world market. The shake of the Asian economy will inevitably lead to a situation that will affect the whole body. Take Thailand as an example. Whether the Thai baht should be bought or sold in the international market is not dominated by the government, and there is not enough foreign exchange reserves. Facing the speculation of financiers, the national economy is vulnerable. The economy determines politics, so the political situation in Thailand is turbulent.

enlighten

(1) The openness of a country's economy is based on its strong economic strength and stable political power. Only strong economic strength and stable political power can we talk about real economic development.

(2) Only when economists have a correct outlook on life and values can they promote social progress and development, otherwise they will not be real economists and will hinder economic development.

(3) Only by improving the comprehensive national strength can a country be in an invincible position.

The financial crisis in Thailand occurred in the turmoil in the stock market and foreign exchange market. First of all, the impact of the dollar contraction in the foreign exchange market has caused the Thai baht to depreciate sharply in a short period of time, further affecting Thailand's stock market and financial system. Southeast Asia's financial market is a bound economy with advantages and disadvantages, and the currencies of various countries are not unified. In the international financial market, the US dollar eventually became a trading unit. Indirectly created a push for the outbreak of the financial crisis.

Therefore, the outbreak of the financial crisis in Southeast Asia came from the impact of the foreign exchange market, and the currency crisis became a subsidiary of the financial crisis.