As an important part of supply-side structural reform, deleveraging is the only way to prevent and resolve financial risks and achieve high-quality economic development. Under the synergistic effect of a series of policies, the upward trend of China's macro leverage ratio has obviously slowed down, and the overall risk is controllable.
De-leveraging is having a profound impact on China's economy and finance. The quality and efficiency of financial services to the real economy have improved, and the concept of enterprise development is also quietly changing. The benign interaction between finance and economy helps China's economy to develop with high quality.
The results have begun to show that the lever has been removed and advanced in an orderly manner.
"Our group's asset-liability ratio dropped to 69.5% at the end of last year, which was lower than 70% for the first time since 20 12, and it plans to further drop to 65% this year." The financial director of a local state-owned enterprise in Shandong said, "The days are a little tighter than before, but the leverage ratio has dropped, the financial expenditure has been greatly reduced, and enterprises have moved forward lightly, making the use of funds more efficient."
This is a microcosm of China's deleveraging. "At present, the upward trend of macro leverage ratio in China has obviously slowed down. In the first quarter of this year, the growth rate of leverage ratio narrowed 1. 1 percentage point compared with the same period of last year, and deleveraging has achieved initial results. " Liu Shijin, member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China, said.
At present, China's debt risk is generally controllable, but the distribution is uneven, especially the leverage ratio of the enterprise sector is high. With the economic downturn and rising debt risk, deleveraging has become a realistic and urgent task. From last year's national financial work conference to the first meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Committee this year, specific requirements have been put forward for deleveraging.
A series of policies work together in many fields. Market-oriented debt-to-equity swaps, disposal of zombie enterprises, and adjustment of evaluation criteria ... By the end of June this year, the average asset-liability ratio of central enterprises was 66%, down 0.3 percentage points from the beginning of the year.
Manage the main gate of money supply and create a suitable monetary and financial environment for deleveraging and risk prevention. At the end of June, China's M2 balance was 177.02 trillion yuan, up 8% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1. 1 percentage point lower than the same period of last year.
A series of strong regulatory policies aimed at curbing the withdrawal of funds from reality have been introduced, entrusted loans and trust loans have shrunk sharply, and irregular financing in key areas such as local government financing platforms and real estate has decreased. In the first half of the year, real estate loans increased by 3.54 trillion yuan, accounting for 1.9 percentage points, lower than the previous year.
"With the strengthening of financial supervision, the situation of rising leverage caused by factors such as shadow banking will be greatly changed, and the efforts to clean up, rectify and standardize the invisible debts of local governments will also increase. It is expected that the leverage ratio of China will generally stabilize and gradually decrease in an orderly manner in the future. " Liu Shijin said.
The risk-controllable deleveraging has a far-reaching impact on China's economy and finance.
With the steady and orderly progress of deleveraging, the barrier of risk prevention is gradually being built.
Non-performing loans in the banking industry, which once continued to climb, have stabilized and improved. At the end of May, the balance of non-performing loans of commercial banks was 1.9 trillion yuan, and the non-performing loan ratio was 1.9%, far below the international level. The balance of loan loss reserve is 3.5 trillion, the provision coverage ratio is 1.83%, and the risk compensation ability is sufficient.
By the end of May, while maintaining the credit growth rate of over 12%, the total assets of the banking industry increased by more than 20 trillion yuan. On the basis of a decrease of 3.4 trillion yuan in the previous year, interbank financial management continued to decrease by 1.2 trillion yuan, which has been reduced by more than two thirds.
De-leveraging is having a far-reaching impact on China's economy and finance: more and more funds are gradually withdrawn from traditional overcapacity areas and gathered in new kinetic energy such as high-tech industries.
"Our financing balance for five industries with overcapacity, such as steel, cement and coal, has dropped by nearly 50% compared with the peak at the end of 20 13. At the same time, in the past two years, loans to advanced manufacturing industries have increased by more than 10%. " The relevant person in charge of ICBC Jiangsu Branch said.
From the national situation, at the end of June, the balance of medium and long-term loans in high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 13. 1% year-on-year, which was 5 percentage points higher than the growth rate of medium and long-term loans in manufacturing industry in the same period.
"Centralized lending and swarming credit are prone to credit risks. Drawing on the experience and lessons of previous years, although our resources are shifting to emerging industries, we cannot rush headlong into it. " Assistant to the president of a city commercial bank said.
De-leverage is also imperceptibly affecting the development concept of enterprises.
"The country's determination and strength to deleverage is great, and it will not be a gust of wind. Enterprises must adapt to the situation and first squeeze out their own' bubble'. " Li, the person in charge of financing Renfu Medicine, told reporters that a large part of the company's work this year is to divest assets and focus on developing the main business medicine. The proceeds from the sale of assets have improved the company's asset structure and cash flow, and the company's development is more emboldened.
Root cause management firmly holds the bottom line of risk
Although initial results have been achieved, deleveraging is not achieved overnight. At present, there are still some problems and difficulties, so we need to take strong but orderly measures to gradually reduce the macro leverage ratio to a reasonable level.
De-leveraging, state-owned enterprises are the top priority. However, highly leveraged state-owned enterprises are concentrated in industries such as steel, coal and electric power, and the tasks of deleveraging are intertwined with de-capacity and short-boarding, and the situation is complicated.
"Market-oriented debt-to-equity swaps and mergers and acquisitions should be the key directions. At present, some enterprises have successively carried out market-oriented debt-to-equity swaps, and should be expanded to more enterprises with high debt ratio, market products and competitiveness in the future. " Dong Ximiao, a senior researcher at Chongyang School of Finance, Renmin University of China, said.
To deleverage, we must give full play to the enthusiasm of enterprises themselves. "If the enterprise itself does not go out of the traditional path of excessive expansion and excessive debt and does not actively focus on its core business, then deleveraging will become a one-man show for financial enterprises, and the effect will not be obvious." A banker said.
The formation of high leverage is closely related to China's financial, taxation and state-owned enterprises. De-leveraging should focus on the long-term, deepen reform, and strengthen root cause governance.
In the financial field, we should enrich the financial market system and vigorously develop direct financing; In the field of finance and taxation, clarify the financial rights and powers of local governments; In the field of state-owned enterprises, there is still a lot of work to be done to deepen the reform of state-owned enterprises and optimize the capital structure ... to use and prevent risks from the root.
"De-leveraging is essentially to create a good economic and financial ecology and promote the sustained and healthy development of enterprises." Dong Ximiao said.
Keep the bottom line and you will have confidence. As long as we face up to the challenges and take the initiative, we will be able to firmly hold the bottom line of no systemic risks and escort economic stability and far-reaching development.
Source:? xinhuanet