Under the background of inflation and currency depreciation, with the increase of wage income, the pressure after mortgage payment will be less.

At the end of each year, with the distribution of year-end awards and the collection of various savings, many people will have money at hand. Because they don't want to bear too heavy mortgage pressure, some people will put prepayment on the agenda. Every year, 65438+February is usually the peak period of mortgage prepayment, but this year, 65438+February is the time for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, and the US dollar is on the way to raise interest rates. According to industry insiders, under the expectation of RMB depreciation, more planning can be made for hand-held funds and mortgages, and it is not necessary to repay mortgages in advance.

Last week, the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate resolution, raising the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. At the same time, the Federal Reserve said in its resolution that it expects to raise interest rates three times in 20 17, and it is expected that the path of raising interest rates will be faster in the future. When the US dollar enters the interest rate channel, the global hot money will accelerate its influx, because the US dollar yield will rise, the US dollar will strengthen in the future, there will be signs of deflation around the world, and most currencies will depreciate. It is estimated that RMB is no exception. Under such circumstances, industry insiders said that the planning of mortgage and capital also needs to change some ideas. In the case of inflation and currency depreciation, it may not be wise to repay the loan in advance. If possible, try to "RMB" the debt.

Usually, when entering the interest rate channel, it is necessary to reduce long-term liabilities and reduce the cost of liabilities. The interest rate hike by the US dollar has tightened global liquidity. In order to cope with capital outflow and push up inflation, it is expected that raising interest rates will become the choice of many countries. Will China choose to raise interest rates? According to industry analysts, if China's CPI continues to rise, the economy rebounds, the real estate inventory continues to decline, the RMB continues to depreciate, and the central bank's foreign exchange reserves are greatly consumed, the central bank will choose to raise interest rates.

If you don't raise interest rates, you must continue to buy a house.

Judging from the demand of maintaining stable economic growth, it is unlikely that China will raise interest rates in the short term. In this case, long-term RMB liabilities are more cost-effective than short-term. Take a loan of 2 million yuan as an example, and pay interest for 20 years 1 1400 yuan; The 30-year interest of the loan is 6,543,800 yuan+0,820 yuan. Although it seems that interest is paid more, in mortgage to buy a house, the interest rate of commercial loans is nominal, and the interest rate after deducting inflation is real. The real interest rate is not as high as the interest rate of 4.9% minus the inflation rate of about 2%, which is why the mortgage of several thousand yuan per month, which was very stressful at that time, seems to be much easier now. The longer the loan term, the lower the monthly payment. If inflation and currency depreciation continue, with the increase of wage income, the repayment pressure will be less in the future.

If you start raising interest rates, you can reduce your mortgage.

It should be noted that if the economic situation changes and enters the interest rate hike channel, it is necessary to measure whether the increase in debt cost after interest rate hike is significantly higher than the income of funds. If it is significantly higher than this figure, you need to reduce your debt as soon as possible. Lin, chairman of Savills South China, said that raising interest rates depends on external and internal factors. In his view, the impact of the US dollar interest rate hike on the property market is not as good as that of the Central Economic Work Conference: "The house is used for living, not for speculation." Such a real estate policy may have a greater impact on the property market.

Buying a house overseas: tightening the supervision of foreign exchange transfer

If you have money on hand and don't want to use it to repay the mortgage in advance, how to plan your financial management? Some people will choose to buy assets that preserve and increase their value, leading to the recent upsurge of overseas asset allocation. Lin, chairman of Savills South China, said that the rich have been allocating overseas assets for a long time, and now there is an obvious feature. Some middle classes with less funds have also begun to allocate assets.

It is better to be cautious when buying overseas real estate.

Lin suggested being cautious about the allocation of overseas real estate purchases. Because, the first thing we have to face is the problem of investing funds overseas through legal channels. At present, the capital outflow control is obviously tightened, and the problem of foreign exchange transfer quota should be solved. Second, investment should be prepared for a long time. The property rights, taxes and management of overseas properties are quite different from those of domestic properties, and the cost is quite high. If you want to make a short-term profit, you are likely to lose more than you gain. In addition, due to the hot allocation of overseas assets, fraud and fish in troubled waters against domestic buyers are also increasing, so we should pay attention to choosing formal intermediaries or institutions.

Buy domestic real estate investment and stop.

So is it a good choice to sell domestic real estate? According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the residential sales price in first-tier cities in June 5438+065438+ 10 was different from the previous rapid increase: the average increase in the first three quarters of this year was about 2.4 1%, while the increase in June 5438+0 1 was only 0.65438+3%. At the same time, 165438+ 10 all cities recorded the smallest price increase in the year.

With the implementation of recent regulatory policies, the pace of the property market began to slow down. Developers' response to regulatory policies and the slowdown in the property market is relatively limited. Instead, they look forward to the coming year and adjust their strategies. It is suggested that if it is self-occupied demand, we should be cautious in the near future, because it is difficult to predict whether there will be any changes at the stage when regulation is not particularly clear. Now may not be a good time for investment. If you have money on hand, you may wish to consider holding money for the time being and buying some short-term wealth management products to ensure your income.

(The above answers were published on 20 16- 12-23. Please refer to the actual purchase policy. )

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