1，GDP
Generally, the higher the GDP, the better the economic development, the higher the interest rate, the stronger the exchange rate and the weaker the gold price. Investors should examine the comparison results of this quarter's GDP with the data of the previous quarter and the same period last year. If the growth rate is higher or higher than expected, it can be regarded as good for gold.
2. Industrial production index
A rising index means that the economy is improving, and interest rates may be raised, which should be beneficial to the dollar and unfavorable to gold, and vice versa.
3. Purchasing Managers Index
Purchasing managers' index is expressed as a percentage, and 50% is often used as the dividing point of economic strength: now when the index is higher than 50%, it is interpreted as a signal of economic expansion. The dollar is bullish and gold is bearish. When the index is below 50%, especially very close to 40%, there is the worry of economic depression. It is generally expected that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates to stimulate the economy. Bad dollars, good gold.
4. Durable goods orders
If the data increases, it shows that the manufacturing situation has improved, which is beneficial to the US dollar and unfavorable to gold. On the other hand, if it is reduced, it means that the manufacturing industry is shrinking, which is not good for the dollar and good for gold.
5. Employment report
Since the publication time is at the beginning of the month, it is generally used as the keynote of the economic indicators of the month. Among them, non-agricultural employment population is an important data for estimating industrial production and personal income. The decline in unemployment rate and the increase in non-agricultural employment population indicate that the economy is improving and interest rates may be raised, which is good for the dollar and bad for gold; On the contrary, it is bad for the dollar and good for gold.
6. Producer price index
Generally speaking, the rise of producer price index is mostly bullish on the dollar, while the fall of bearish gold is bearish on the dollar and bullish on gold.
7. Retail index
The growth of retail sales represents the increase of personal consumption expenditure and the improvement of economic situation. If the expected interest rate rises, it will be good for the dollar and bad for gold. On the contrary, if the retail sales decline, it will mean that the economy will slow down or be poor, and the interest rate may be lowered, which is not good for the dollar and good for gold.
8. Consumer price index
When discussing inflation, one of the most frequently mentioned price indexes. The consumer price index is rising, and there is inflationary pressure. At this time, the central bank may control it by raising interest rates, which is good for the US dollar and bad for gold. On the contrary, the decline is bad for the dollar and good for gold. However, because most products related to life are final products, their prices only go up and down, so the consumer price index can't fully reflect the fact of price changes.
9, new housing construction and construction permit building index
Because changes in housing construction will directly point to economic recession or recovery. Generally speaking, the start of new housing and the increase of building permits are theoretically positive factors for the dollar, which will promote the strength of the dollar and be bad for gold. The decline or lower than expected in new housing starts and building permits will put pressure on the dollar and benefit gold.
10, the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits every week.
There are two categories: initial application and continuous application. In addition to the weekly figures, the moving average of the four weeks will be published to reduce the fluctuation of the figures. The change of the number of people applying for unemployment benefits is one of the most striking economic indicators in the market. The United States is a completely consumption-oriented society, and consumption desire is the biggest driving force of the economy. If the number of people applying for unemployment benefits every week increases because of unemployment, it will seriously curb consumer confidence, which is not good for the dollar and good for gold. The lower the data, the better the labor market, and optimistic about the economic growth prospects, which is beneficial to the US dollar and unfavorable to gold.
1 1, the leading indicator of American ECRI.
Leading indicators are comprehensive indicators to measure the overall economic operation. It can explain the economic development and business cycle changes in the next few months earlier, is an important tool for investors to predict the trend of interest rates in the early stage, is one of the most important economic indicators to predict the future economic development, and shows the economic prospects of the United States. If the ECRI leading index in the United States is higher than the previous value last week, it will be beneficial to the dollar and not to gold; Otherwise, it will be bad for the dollar.
12, core retail sales in the United States this month
The retail sales index is used to measure the change of consumers' spending amount in the retail market, and the core retail sales is obtained by excluding the retail data of automobiles, food and energy. The growth of retail sales represents the increase of personal consumption expenditure and the improvement of economic situation. If interest rates are expected to rise, it will benefit the dollar. On the other hand, if the retail sales decline, it means that the economy is slowing down or not good, and interest rates may be lowered, which is not good for the US dollar.
13, American monthly trade account
The trade account reflects the commodity trade between countries and is an important indicator to judge the macroeconomic operation. The total amount of imports is greater than exports, so there will be a "trade deficit"; If exports exceed imports, it is called "trade surplus"; If exports are equal to imports, it is called "trade balance".
If a country often runs a trade deficit, national income will flow out of the country, thus weakening the national economic performance. If the government wants to improve this situation, it must devalue its currency, because devaluation means lowering the price of export commodities in disguise and improving the competitiveness of export products. The international trade situation is a very important factor affecting the foreign exchange rate. Therefore, the expansion of the foreign trade deficit is bad for the dollar, which will make the dollar fall and benefit gold; On the contrary, when there is a foreign trade surplus, it is good for the dollar and bad for gold.
14, net capital inflows, USA
Refers to the net inflow of foreign investors to buy US Treasury bonds, stocks and other securities after deducting the investment of US residents in foreign securities. It is regarded as a rough indicator to measure capital flow.
The net inflow of capital is in a surplus (positive number) state, which is better than expected, indicating that the net inflow of foreign exchange in the United States is good for the US dollar; On the contrary, it is in a deficit (negative) state, indicating that the net outflow of foreign exchange from the United States is bad for the US dollar.
15. Equipment utilization rate in the United States (also called capacity utilization rate)
It is the ratio of total industrial output to production equipment, which represents the degree of capacity utilization. When the equipment utilization rate exceeds 95%, it means that the equipment utilization rate is close to full point, and the pressure of inflation will increase with the inability of production capacity, which is beneficial to the US dollar when the market expects interest rates to rise. On the other hand, if the capacity utilization rate is below 90% and continues to decline, it means that the equipment is idle too much, and the economy is in recession, which is not good for the US dollar when the market expects interest rates to drop.
16. Commercial retail volume of red books in the United States last week (annual rate, monthly rate)
It can measure the current economic strength, the increase of retail sales, the increase of personal consumption expenditure and the improvement of economic situation. If interest rates are expected to rise, it will benefit the dollar. On the contrary, if the retail sales decline, it will mean that the economy is slowing down or not, and interest rates may be lowered, which is bad for the US dollar.
17. API crude oil inventories in the United States last week.
US API (american petroleum institute) crude oil inventory last week. The change of inventory quantity will affect the international crude oil price. Theoretically, the decrease of inventory and the increase of crude oil price are good for gold; The increase in stocks and the decline in crude oil prices are not good for gold.
18, new house sales
Refers to the number of houses that have signed sales contracts. Because buyers usually subscribe for houses through mortgage loans and mortgage loans, they are sensitive to the current mortgage interest rate. The real estate market reflects the consumption expenditure level of residents. If consumer spending is strong, it shows that the country's economy is running well. Therefore, generally speaking, the increase in new home sales is theoretically a positive factor for the US dollar, which will promote the strength of the US dollar and be bad for gold. Falling or lower-than-expected sales will put pressure on the dollar and benefit gold.
19, consumer confidence index (CCI)
Consumer spending accounts for 23% of the American economy and has an important impact on the American economy. To this end, analysts track the consumer confidence index to seek clues to predict future consumer spending. The consumer confidence index has risen steadily, indicating that consumers are optimistic about future income expectations, and there are signs of expansion in consumer spending, which is conducive to the improvement of the economy and the US dollar, and vice versa. Consumer confidence index is published twice a month, once at the beginning of the month and once at the end of the month.
20. Changes of natural gas in American Energy Association
On the other hand, it reflects the energy utilization rate of the United States, and then reflects the economic development of the United States, which also has an impact on the international crude oil price. The data is greater than the previous value, reflecting that the United States has a good energy utilization rate, with more dollars and less gold.
Generally speaking, there are only two main factors affecting gold: first, the rise and fall of the US dollar index is inversely proportional to the price of gold; Second, oil prices have risen and fallen, and they have gone with the gold price.