Therefore, there is a view that once the hegemony of the US dollar collapses, just as the tiger has no fangs, the United States will gradually become the "second child in the world". This is not impossible, let's talk about this topic.
Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, in order to save the fragile economy, the United States has "opened the floodgates" by any means. In the past year, the cumulative water release in the United States exceeded $5 trillion. You know, the GDP of Japan, the third largest economy in the world, is only about $5 trillion in 1 year.
The United States has benefited a lot from the consequences of large-scale water release. In 2020, its economy will only decline by 3.5%, which is lower than the global decline, but many countries such as Brazil, Argentina and Turkey have been hit hard. Affected by the US dollar, the currencies of Brazil and Argentina depreciated by more than 20% in the past year, while the Turkish lira plunged by 65,438+07% on March 65,438+02.
Now the central banks of Turkey, Brazil and other countries have announced interest rate hikes, and the market's expectations for interest rate hikes in countries such as South Korea, India and Malaysia are also rising. Today, however, the United States has fallen into a vicious circle of "living on debt". Recently, the country has continued to launch a $2.3 trillion infrastructure plan, and the "bonus hunter" has been unable to stop.
In this context, countries began to "make dollars against the dollar"-at least 53 countries "de-dollarized" by selling US debt, trading non-US oil and signing currency swaps, and Iran and Russia, which were sanctioned by the United States, were even more "deep-water bombs" for de-dollarization.
After China and Iran signed a 25-year cooperation agreement with a total value of 400 billion US dollars, some foreign media pointed out that Iran will use RMB or digital RMB for settlement in Sino-Iranian oil trade; In order to get rid of dollarization, Russia has established the Russian version of SWIFT, that is, the financial information transmission system, and plans to connect this system with the settlement systems in the euro zone, Iran, China and other countries.
The de-dollarization of various countries has begun to shake the foundation of dollar hegemony-in the month of 5438+ 10 last June, the utilization rate of cross-border payment of the euro reached 37.82%, slightly exceeding 37.64% of the US dollar, which is the first time that the international settlement status of the euro surpassed the US dollar in seven years; As of the fourth quarter of last year, the share of the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves also dropped from 60.5% in the previous quarter to about 59%.
At the same time, as the second largest economy in the world, China's GDP has surpassed that of the United States by 70%. Many institutions predict that there will be a GDP reversal between China and the United States in 10 recently, and China is also pursuing RMB internationalization, which will give a "heavy blow" to the hegemony of the US dollar.
It is not difficult to imagine that as long as dollarization continues and reaches a certain critical point, the hegemony of the dollar may really collapse. What will happen then?
The first is to drag down the economy. Due to the loss of dollar hegemony, it is impossible for the United States to release "bonus hunter" indefinitely and pass on the economic crisis as before. For example, in the latest Global Economic Outlook Report released by IMF, it is predicted that the US economy will grow by 6.4% in 20021year, and the strong growth is largely attributed to a series of economic stimulus plans since the outbreak of the epidemic.
In fact, in the century economic crisis in 2008, the United States was able to take the lead in getting out of the economic crisis among developed countries, which was also related to the four rounds of quantitative easing policies implemented at that time. The total assets of the Federal Reserve have more than tripled in just a few years, and it is also a set of printing money and releasing water. It can be said that dollar hegemony has contributed greatly to the economic development of the United States. If this hegemonic pillar is gone, the GDP of the United States is likely to shrink.
Second, the United States will go further and further on the road of decline. Losing the hegemony of the dollar is not only as simple as affecting the American economy, but also may lead to the collapse of the hegemonic system. You know, today, the United States often imposes sanctions on other countries, and most of these countries rely on dollar hegemony.
For example, after the Crimean crisis broke out in 20 14, the United States frozen assets and prohibited transactions of Russian banks, energy, national defense and other enterprises and related personnel. In order to prevent Iran from "exporting a drop of oil", the United States kicked it out of the SWIFT system on 20 18, cutting off the settlement service of the Iranian central bank. These sanctions are all because the hegemony of the dollar is at work. Once this "sharp weapon" is lost, the sanctions power of the United States will be greatly reduced.
Finally, the world may form a new monetary system. It is not difficult to imagine that the dollar, which dominates the current international monetary system, has declined and the power vacuum left by it will be redistributed. Many people believe that the future international monetary system will present a three-legged pattern of "dollar, euro and RMB".
Why does the dollar still have a place? Because "dollarization" will not happen overnight, but a long-term process, after all, the dollar is still the "anchor of global currency" and cannot be replaced at this stage; At the same time, based on the strong comprehensive strength of the United States, even if the hegemony of the dollar falls, it will still be the main international currency, just like the original pound!
With the rise of China, the internationalization of RMB has made continuous progress. It is not surprising that RMB has become one of the three pillars in the international monetary structure in the case of the decline of US dollar hegemony.
Text | Liang Jinyuan Title | Ling Mingtu | Lu Wenxiang Trial | Liu