No one expects money, but money is relative and the most unreliable. During the financial crisis in Southeast Asia, how many people cried and shouted to sell their local currency and change it into dollars.
So you made money today, and you were just enjoying the ecstasy. Still think about how to cooperate with the country and do something to keep the fruits of victory.
The US financial war has started, and China is in a difficult situation!
Now many people in China are very concerned about the topic of RMB appreciation, but they don't know what the real intention of the United States is to force RMB appreciation. Now I would like to express my personal views in a simple way!
I believe everyone is concerned about the "Japanese economic recession" in the 1980s, the "Asian financial turmoil" and the "Hong Kong financial defense war" in the 1990s! Some people may say that the international speculative group "Soros Consortium of the United States" did it, but haven't you ever thought that there is no support from the US government behind it? Below, I carefully analyze the cause and effect of these events, and you will understand.
From 1980, especially from 1990 to 1995, what is the GDP gap between the first-ranked United States and the second-ranked Japan? Japan's GDP is more than half that of the United States! This is also the only time that the economic gap between other countries and the United States has been reduced to half. The Japanese are cheering: as long as it exceeds the GDP of the United States, Japan can return to a "normal country"! The Americans said nothing.
It stands to reason that Japan is still an ally of the United States, and the economy is also supported by the United States. There is no need for the United States to split Japan (if it wanted to split, it would have split during World War II, not until the 1980s and 1990s). It is also impossible for the United States to use "subversive incitement" against its ally Japan. Seeing the United States can't stop the development prospects of Japan's economy! Countries all over the world are excitedly looking forward to the "historic moment" when Japan's GDP exceeds that of the United States! Japanese companies are even crazier, and Rockefeller Plaza, the symbol of American economy, has been bought by the Japanese! Hollywood, the spiritual symbol of America, was bought by the Japanese! The mood of the American people suddenly fell to the bottom. "World No.1" is almost gone! The sense of honor of the American people is declining sharply, and people are beginning to spread anti-Japanese sentiment.
1980, Japan's GDP was almost half that of the United States. 1985 something happened. 1985, the United States wooed five other countries (the Group of Seven) and forced Japan to sign. Force the yen to appreciate by "administrative means". In fact, a central idea is that the Bank of Japan should not "excessively" intervene in the foreign exchange market. At that time, Japan had sufficient foreign exchange reserves in dollars. If the Bank of Japan intervenes, the yen will not appreciate. Unfortunately, Japan is a eunuch who was ousted. American troops, political infiltration, and even the constitution are all tailored by Americans, so it is impossible to sign the Plaza Agreement.
Everyone knows the final outcome of Japan. The plaza agreement of September 1985 ends at the beginning of 1988. The United States wants the yen to appreciate. According to the agreement to boost the yen, in May 1986, the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar rose from 1 to 240 yen before the agreement to 1 to 160 yen. Because the Reagan administration of the United States insisted that the appreciation of the yen was not in place, it continued to push up the yen through oral intervention and other forms. In this way, by the beginning of 1988, the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar had further increased to 1 USD pair 120 yen, which was just twice the exchange rate before the Plaza Agreement.
Are Americans satisfied? No, further, from1February 1993 to1April 1995, then Finance Minister Bates made it clear that in order to correct the trade imbalance between Japan and the United States, about 20% of the yen needed to appreciate. At that time, the yen exchange rate was about 1 USD 120 yen. Therefore, according to the induced goal of the US government, the yen market is very good. Since then, the Clinton administration has adopted a more severe attitude towards Japan-US economic relations with automobile friction as the core. By April's 1995, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen had soared to 1 US dollar against 79 yen, a record high.
What are the consequences of the appreciation of the yen? Rockefeller Plaza is back in the hands of Americans, and GM made a net profit of 400 million dollars by buying and selling this plaza! Japanese capital withdrew from the United States on a large scale at a loss in difficult days. The American people won! Successfully repelled the Japanese economic attack! We can see from the example that after 1995, the ratio of GDP between Japan and the United States has widened again, and it is getting bigger and bigger!
Maybe some netizens still don't understand, what happened to the appreciation of the yen? What does this have to do with our conversation? The appreciation of the yen is the economic blockade of Japan by the United States! Successfully transferred Japan's development wealth for more than 20 years to the United States.
Let me give you an example, and it will be clear to everyone.
Assuming that I am an American consortium, I certainly know what will happen to 1985. Suppose I am at 1983, and I convert 100 billion dollars into 2.4 trillion yen to enter the Japanese market and buy Japanese stocks and real estate. Japan's booming economy has led to a crazy rise in the stock market and real estate. The Plaza Agreement was signed on 1985, starting with the Japanese yen.
At this time, the yen appreciated to 1: 120. I sold all the Japanese properties and stocks in one year, and then converted them back into dollars, so that's $40 billion! In five years, I made a net profit of 30 billion dollars! (or the minimum assumption). What about Japan? The sudden withdrawal of huge foreign capital led to the collapse of Japan's economy! Personal capital is a "bubble economy burst". This is what Japan often says: "the lost decade". And I even returned to America with 40 billion dollars in interest. Think about it, can the American economy not be strong? ! ! Japan's "lost decade" is precisely the "prosperous decade" of the United States! Look at my watch.
I'm just talking about one of the American consortia. What about other consortia? Hehe, and my hypothesis only reaches 1988. If it is 1995 and the yen appreciates to 1:79, can you and I imagine how much wealth the United States has scraped from Japan in the victory of this economic war?
The United States has earned enough, and now the yen has returned to the position of 1: 140, and the strength of the dollar is still the same as it was 30 years ago! The temporary depreciation of the dollar has not damaged the international status of the dollar. This economic war between the United States and Japan ended in a great victory for the United States! !
Americans are addicted to playing. 1998, the same trick was performed on the four little dragons and tigers in Southeast Asia. This is the Asian financial turmoil! The only difference is that the Plaza Agreement is not needed this time. Because the foreign exchange reserves of these tiger dragons in Asia can be completely defeated if they are directly banned! However, the United States, with its deep pockets, strong military power and rampant hegemonism, has not been defeated. As you can see, the currencies in Southeast Asia rose first and then fell, and the fruits of economic development were looted by the United States! !
The only market that survived the attack of Soros without economic collapse was Hong Kong after the reunification, which preserved the fruits of decades of development in Hong Kong. At that time, Soros launched world public opinion (including Hong Kong public opinion) and criticized the Hong Kong government (China government) for "administrative intervention in the market", which violated the rules of the market economy and lacked democracy and freedom. If China had succumbed to the pressure of world public opinion and had not intervened in the market with "macro-control", it would have caused great disaster. I wonder how many people in China would have committed suicide by jumping off a building because of bankruptcy, just like Japan at that time!
At that time, Donald Tsang later said, "The night before I decided to enter the market, I sat in bed and cried, not for myself, but for fear that if this decision was wrong and harmed Hong Kong, how could I explain it to the central government and citizens?"
Now you know why the United States has repeatedly demanded "freedom of the press", "market economy" and "democracy and human rights" from other countries for its own interests, and you also know the correctness and superiority of China's "macro-control" policy.
Has America stopped? No, because I said that the growth of comprehensive strength and national strength threatened the fundamental interests of the United States and the authority of "the world's number one." Recently, "China publicly supported Annan, who was in trouble because of his son's scandal, and accused the United States of deliberately using the topic to create life attacks." Is the best proof. Therefore, the United States is unhappy and wants to trick people. Forcing the RMB to appreciate now is the first step to weaken China. You got it? Do you know why the central government suddenly cracked down on the real estate markets in Shanghai and Beijing? Do you know why the China stock market is so miserable? Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the central bank, said in March and April, "There is a $4 billion foreign investor speculating in real estate in Shanghai, and it has already withdrawn from China. Let nature take its course! " Do you understand? China stock market is a weak stock market, which is easy to be used by American consortia.
It is impossible for the central government to relax its control over the stock market, otherwise China's economy will collapse under the attack of foreign capital! Some time ago, 65438+ In early February of this year, another foreign consortium of $24 billion left China and Shanghai. Now, everyone understands the benefits of national macro-control, and how wise and timely it is for the state to introduce so many policies for real estate!
Now, you all know why China has to implement national foreign exchange control and exchange rate control, suppress real estate and control the stock market, why China has to maintain huge foreign exchange reserves, why the central bank has recently issued new regulations on real estate loans, why the China government has been demanding a balance between import and export trade, why it wants to expand the Southeast Asian trade market and the European Union market, and why it wants to join the WTO.
In fact, the economic war between China and the United States has already begun, with hundreds of moves back and forth. Most of our netizens are still staring at the Taiwan Province Strait and another US military base in Central Asia. You know, the disaster of economic collapse is far more serious than the consequences of military war. There are only two kinds of military wars: the war of aggression and the war of defending the country. The ultimate goal of a military "war of aggression" is to crush everything (military and economic strength) of the other side in order to occupy the territory of the other side, plunder resources and control the slavery and exploitation of its nationals.
Such things have happened frequently in the history of China, so I won't give an example here. Today, the United States is using the war of military aggression as a means to achieve the real intention of enslaving and exploiting each other (against weak countries). Look at today's "Iraq" and you will understand that the United States actually invaded and occupied Iraq, controlled Iraq's oil and met the huge domestic demand in the United States. As for the powerful former Soviet Union (the former Soviet Union has the nuclear power to kill each other), the United States can only launch economic attacks to bring them down, and the division of the Soviet Union is the best example.
Some people may say that it was the arms race during the Cold War and the domestic policies of the Soviet Union at that time that led to the disintegration of the former Soviet Union due to economic collapse. However, have you ever thought that the arms race is based on economic strength? At that time, the economic strength of the United States was stronger than that of the Soviet Union, so the United States won and the Soviet Union disintegrated. Now it's our turn. China's economic and military strength is inferior to that of the Soviet Union during the Cold War. The same point is that China also has nuclear weapons to destroy the United States, but the number is a little less. This round depends on the wisdom of our leaders. There is an urgent need to establish reasonable policies to avoid risks and protect ourselves (fortunately, China is already doing so now).
However, the United States has not been idle. Moreover, as the first step of economic attack, they have already taken a step. There have been many acquisitions of China's "Xuzhou Heavy Industry" from the world-wide speculative consortia such as Carlyle Consortium. I won't give examples here. Their purpose is clear, to control China's core technology and monopolize the world's technology. At the same time, taking advantage of the constant exchange rate, China banks were forced to issue a large number of RMB to meet the demand for currency exchange, which laid the groundwork for dragging down China's economy. This is still plain, and it is even more impossible to calculate secretly.
At this point, perhaps many people don't understand the relationship between a large number of dollars exchanged for RMB and China's economic collapse. Here, I want to make it clear: Under normal circumstances, before a large number of American consortia maliciously poured into China to convert a large amount of US dollars into RMB, China's economic form was relatively stable, and the amount of RMB issued by China should be equivalent to the amount of wealth accumulated by our people. However, a large amount of funds from foreign malicious consortia poured into China, and a large amount of RMB needed to be exchanged, which made the circulation of RMB in China greatly exceed the wealth accumulated by our people. All these RMB were invested in a few fields, which apparently boosted China's economy, increased domestic consumption, and actually caused a sharp rise in asset prices.
According to statistics, the current investment in the international financial market is 136 trillion US dollars. As long as 1%, that is, 1.36 trillion US dollars, pours into China for speculation, China will issue 10.6 trillion RMB at the current exchange rate.
If the RMB appreciates by 15%, they will get back 1.56 trillion dollars with the RMB in hand, while China's foreign exchange reserves are 0.2 trillion dollars, that is to say, these investment funds are 200 billion more, and the 200 billion dollars earned by China as a sweatshop for so many years are not left, leaving China to cope with this 654,300. In 2006, China's GDP was 20 trillion, and there were so many commodities, but the money increased by 10.6 trillion, which meant that all commodities had to be discounted by 2/3. Panic will spread in society, and real estate speculators may make a down payment of 30%, 60% or even 30% in order to realize their money. A large number of citizens went bankrupt, involving bank bankruptcy, the whole country's economy collapsed, and our wealth was worthless.
At that time, the people of China and even the world will lose confidence in China, and will no longer reserve, use or even sell their RMB, which will frustrate China's foreign trade activities and eventually lead to inflation in China, credibility crisis abroad and financial crisis. Just like inflation in the 1940s, a box of matches cost several hundred dollars. If our government makes a wrong decision on the RMB exchange rate, then the economic achievements of China in the past 30 years of reform and opening up may fall into the hands of others.
Objectively speaking, the recent domestic economic situation is not optimistic. Arguably, the appreciation of RMB means that this money is valuable. It should be something that used to cost 1 yuan, but now it can be bought for 90 cents or even 80 cents. But at present, everything in China has gone up except wages.
Xinhua reported that since August 2006, the price of edible oil in Beijing market has fluctuated. 1 1 month, the prices of rice, noodles, vegetables and non-staple foods all rose to varying degrees. According to the report, the price of edible oil has risen due to the rising price in the international soybean market. However, rice noodles had a pleasant journey, with the increase of 25 kilograms of Fuqiang powder reaching more than 12% and the increase of 500 grams of rice by 6 cents. It is understood that in Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other places, daily necessities such as grain and oil have risen for more than a month, with the highest increase of flour and edible oil reaching 10% and 20% respectively.
The price increase of agricultural and sideline products shows that China's economy is developing and improving. At the same time, the increase in the price of agricultural and sideline products will increase farmers' income, maintain social stability, provide a good domestic environment for the development of the country, and be beneficial to the development of the country, because the number of farmers in China accounts for more than 70% of the total population after all.
However, it is no accident that the prices of daily necessities in China are rising. The macro-control that lasted for more than seven months did not stabilize house prices, but led to an increase in house prices. Economists have long warned that the real estate bubble will lead to inflation, which in turn will lead to economic crisis. However, this kind of voice is too weak, and now there are indications that inflation is approaching us step by step.
Compared with Tokyo in 1996 and Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen in 1997, the signs before the real estate bubble burst have already appeared. Local governments that try to continue to drive up housing prices for their own selfish interests will be mercilessly punished by economic laws. Because this round of inflation was issued without any precautions, it may not be officially recognized, but it has actually arrived. This budding inflation chose the best time to lead to the economic crisis-before New Year's Day and Spring Festival in 2007. So it is more harmful and destructive. If the price of instant noodles starts to rise one day, the economic crisis will be unstoppable.
The prices of rice, oil, salt, water, electricity, gasoline and gas have risen in an all-round way, which has no influence on the normal life of the rich in China. However, millions of ordinary citizens in Qian Qian will have to pay more wealth to maintain the same living standard as before. In other words, the high housing prices in China are indirectly paid by ordinary urban residents. It took 65,438+05 years for Japanese nationals and 65,438+04 years for Hong Kong citizens. So, how many years will China urban residents need?