The rapid development of bank ATM stems from the development of financial technology, that is, it expands rapidly with the wide application of credit cards and bank cards. However, due to the development of financial technology, especially the popularity of mobile payment based on scanning code payment, the application of cash has been greatly reduced and gradually shrunk. It was really born in the bank card and died in scanning code payment. So, is there a future for future ATM machines?
First of all, with the rise of mobile payment, the business outlets and ATMs of Chinese banks have shown a sharp contraction pattern. Although it is still too early to say that ATM has withdrawn from the historical stage, it has shown a downward trend.
With the contraction of bank outlets, the bank's ATM has also greatly shrunk its defense line, from expansion layout to contraction defense. The latest "Overview of Payment System in 2020" published by the Central Bank shows that by the end of 2020, the number of ATMs will be 10 13900, which is 83900 fewer than that at the end of 20 19. The number of ATMs per 10,000 people in China is 7.24, a year-on-year decrease of 7.95%.
More importantly, in 2020, the number of ATMs will drop sharply, with a month-on-month decrease of14,700, 30,900 and 23 10 respectively at the end of the first quarter, the second quarter and the third quarter.
In sharp contrast to the contraction of bank outlets and the abolition of ATM, it is the growth of non-cash payment business of banks. According to the data released by the central bank, in 2020, the national banks handled 354,775,438+billion non-cash payments, amounting to 40 13.05438+0 trillion yuan, up 7. 16% and 6. 18% respectively.
At present, the result is that the mobile payment business in banks and third-party payment continues to develop rapidly. According to the data of the central bank, the number of mobile payment transactions in the banking industry increased by 6.3 times from 65.438+03.837 billion to 654.38+006.5438+04.3 10 billion, and the amount increased from 654.38 billion. The number of online payments by non-bank payment institutions increased by 7.76 times, from 8,265,438+45 million to 7 19998 million, and the amount increased from 49.48 trillion yuan to 249.88 trillion yuan.
Since cash is no longer needed or cash demand and demand scenarios are greatly reduced, it is not surprising that ATM with cash as the carrier has become a chicken rib.
Secondly, the rise of ATM machines is due to the wide application of bank cards after the "Gold Card Project" in China, and the decline of ATM machines at present is also due to the impact of the era of scanning code payment.
ATM used to be a new service mode in which banks replaced labor and implemented 24-hour service. Typical representatives include ATM machines, all-in-one deposit and withdrawal machines and self-service inquiry machines. Paul Volcker, former chairman of the Federal Reserve, even said that "the only useful invention in banking is ATM."
From the historical process, ATM machine was born in sorrow and died in happiness; Born at the right time, died at the right time.
There are two major factors in the development of ATM machines: one is the cash age; The second is the wide application of bank cards. The world's first ATM was put into use by Barclays Bank enfield Branch on June 27th, 1967, and the first ATM in China was introduced by Bank of China Zhuhai Branch on June 27th, 1987. However, the real rapid development of ATM in China was after 1993 launched the "Gold Card Project" focusing on the application of electronic money. With the computerized transformation of banking system and the wide application of bank cards, it provides the premise and possibility for the wide use of ATM. The report on the operation of the payment system issued by the central bank shows that the number of ATMs in China was 95,000 at the end of 2005, and it reached 866,700 at the end of 20 15.
Due to the development of ATM machines, bank outlets have entered hotels, restaurants, supermarkets, shopping malls and even streets and communities. At present, ATM is still an important place for people to deposit and withdraw cash, which brings convenience to people.
The so-called prosperity and decline, the development of financial technology has created the prosperity of ATM machines; Similarly, the further development of financial technology has also brought "grave diggers" to the ATM industry, that is, mobile payment.
20 15 years is the watershed of the whole ATM machine. Since then, although the number has not decreased significantly, it has shown a spent force. During the Spring Festival of 20 15, WeChat held hands with the whole people to grab the WeChat red envelope. In 20 16, Alipay took over the Five Blessingg Spring Festival red envelope. The momentum of mobile payment is unstoppable, and all kinds of mobile payment, especially scanning code payment, have quickly covered almost all scenes of our lives, thus subverting the cash base for the survival and development of ATM, and people no longer use cash in large quantities or even without it.
Technology is the only force that can subvert the business model of banks. There is nothing in this world that technology cannot change. Mobile payment has penetrated into almost all daily trading activities, such as shopping, scanning code to ride, scanning code to rent charging treasure, e-commerce, catering, automobile, real estate, medical care, tourism and so on. The most common mobile payment in China is mainly the familiar two-dimensional code payment, flash payment, third-party client payment and so on. Among them, scanning code payment is the earliest, most extensive, most familiar and most used way, and the utilization rate in mobile payment is as high as 93%. Do you still need ATM after you no longer need and use cash?
Third, ATM machines have stepped down from the altar. When people no longer use cash, will ATM have a future?
In fact, the current embarrassing situation of ATM is not only due to mobile payment, although the development of mobile payment has indeed led to a significant reduction or decline in people's cash payment. In 20 16, the total amount of non-cash payment in China reached 125 1 trillion yuan, and in 20 17, the non-cash payment reached 1362. 14 trillion yuan, of which electronic payment accounted for 68% of non-cash payment. Scanning code payment only changes people's payment methods and subverts people's lifestyle of using cash. Accordingly, it is no exaggeration to say that China is changing from a traditional cash society to a cashless society dominated by mobile payment, and the direct result is the impact on the use of ATM machines.
Another big influence factor is the impact of the bank itself on its ATM application, that is, the vigorous development of online banking. Faced with the impact of mobile payment and scanning code payment, banks can't sit still, but they will not develop various scanning code payments. The counter-attack of banks is to develop online banking, and form an overall scene of online mobile payment with mobile banking and online banking as the main body to replace the payment and use of cash.
From 20 13 to 20 15, the online payment transaction volume of banking financial institutions was about 3 10 trillion yuan per quarter, and reached about 560 trillion yuan per quarter after 20 15, and exceeded 700 trillion yuan in the first quarter of 20 16. Through the online payment and mobile payment of mobile banking, banks have greatly reduced the frequency and scale of counter business, resulting in a large number of businesses leaving the counters inside the bank. At present, the leaving rate of most banking businesses exceeds 90%, and some banking businesses exceed 95%. The departure of banking business will naturally hedge the utilization rate and demand of ATM machines.
At present, online banking customers can handle traditional businesses such as account opening, inquiry, reconciliation, intra-bank transfer, inter-bank transfer, credit, online securities, investment and wealth management, and become virtual banking counters in the Internet era. The data shows that in the first half of 20 18, the number of online banking users in China has reached 4170,000, and 52% of the total netizens have become online banking users. 20 18 in the second quarter, the transaction scale of online banking customers nationwide reached 478.6 trillion yuan. The data shows that the number of mobile payment transactions in China's banking industry soared from 6053 1 billion in 20 18 to101454.38+billion in 20 19, an increase of 40.9 billion. The transaction amount of mobile payment in China's banking industry has increased from 108.22 trillion yuan in 2065 to 438+065,438+0 trillion yuan in 2065, which has more than tripled.
ATM is faced with an embarrassing situation: either improve its functions to enhance its adaptability to reality, such as business display, online payment demonstration and other new functions; Or face the fate of being eliminated, and there must be one of them. Is ATM promising? There must be. The key lies in the upgrade ability of ATM itself.
Whether it is the closing and shrinking of bank outlets or the massive reduction of ATMs, it will only aggravate the transformation of bank outlets and ATMs. Although banks dynamically adjust the merged bank outlets, they also increase the deployment and upgrade of self-service equipment. At present, banks are upgrading their banking outlets with light weight, intelligence and characteristics. At the same time, they are accelerating the iteration of upgrading online service platforms such as mobile banking, online banking and customer service center, and improving the network service process and service efficiency of banks through financial technology. This requires ATM equipment to actively adapt to the needs of commercial banks' institutions and outlets to be light, intelligent and scene-oriented, and upgrade traditional ATM machines into more intelligent self-service equipment. This is the way out for future ATMs.
Judging from the reality, the investment in self-service equipment in China's banking industry has not decreased, but has an increasing trend. Relevant data show that at the end of 20 18, the banking industry deployed a total of 30,000 self-service devices 103, including 20,000 innovative self-service devices; In 20 19, intelligent counter machines and receipt printers were mainly added for delivery.
It can be seen that the traditional ATM machine has no future, not that ATM machines have no future. Facing the super-intelligent competition of banks, ATM machines can only cope with the future of bank intelligence and financial technology development through intelligence. Take the Agricultural Bank of China as an example. By the end of June, 2065438+2009, the super counter had covered 22,000 outlets, and the replacement rate of counter business reached over 94%. Super counter is an intelligent customer service channel and platform, which consists of "software"+"hardware"+"background". This may be the future development direction of ATM.
The only constant in this society is change. The rise of ATM has encountered historical development opportunities, and the problems encountered at present are also realities that must be faced. However, any change is of course organic. As for whether ATM can seize the opportunity, it depends on the ability to upgrade and the ability of future intelligence.