In August, RMB loans increased by 1.28 trillion yuan, and the incremental social financing scale was 3.58 trillion yuan.
The Bank of Communications Financial Research Center expects that, considering the continued contraction of note financing and loans to non-bank financial institutions in recent months, and the regulatory requirements for large banks to control the scale of housing-related loans, the credit growth rate in September is expected to decline slightly to around 12.9%, with a single-month credit increase of around 1.8 trillion yuan.
Societe Generale Research expects that, on the credit side, the upward movement of the bill rate in September is higher than the NCD rate, reflecting the stronger demand for financing, and it is expected that the scale of new RMB loans in September may be around 1.75 trillion.
In terms of social financing, institutions tend to think that the scale of new social financing in September or lower than in August, but still have support.
Soochow Securities expects that the new social financing in September 3.2 trillion, the stock growth rate is expected to further upward to about 13.4%-13.5%.
Specifically: First, Wind statistics of equity and corporate bond financing, although the double drop, but compared to the same period last year did not show a significant contraction of the situation; second, non-standard, with the benefit of the trust network announced by the collection of trust issuance market is still maintaining a high degree of heat; third, government bonds, government bonds and local bonds, the net financing of a total of 93 billion yuan, compared to the same period last year, more than 500 billion yuan. More than 500 billion yuan.
Societe Generale Research expects the net financing of government bonds of Wind caliber to be 931.9 billion in September, down from 1.36 trillion in August. Affected by the slowdown in the issuance of government bonds, the new social financing scale of 3.20 trillion in September, slightly lower than in August, but the growth rate of social financing may further increase to 13.5%.
After the broad money (M2) August year-on-year growth rate fell back to 10.4%, institutions tend to believe that September M2 will continue to fall.
Societe Generale Research believes that, in terms of M1, affected by the tightening of real estate regulation, the property market cooled down in September, and the year-on-year growth rate of commercial property sales slowed down, which may slow down the conversion of residents' deposits to corporate deposits, driving M1 down slightly to 7.9% year-on-year. On the M2 side, loan growth in September may slow slightly compared with August, driving M2 down to 10.3% year-on-year.
The Financial Research Center of the Bank of Communications believes that the high point of M2 growth in the year has already passed, and the M2 growth rate in September will remain at around 10.3%.
The agency believes that credit growth may fall slightly to the level of 12.9% or so, the support for M2 growth rate slightly weakened; September local debt issuance scale significantly lower than the level of over a trillion dollars in August; in addition, in recent years, fiscal deposits in September have maintained a negative growth, coupled with local debt issuance in the month is significantly less than the previous month, the fiscal deposits of the previous month on the formation of the drag on the M2 growth rate of the situation may be this month The first time I've seen this, I've seen a lot of it.
Proofread by: Ding Xiao