202 1 The past year was a year of great changes. Global epidemic situation is one after another, commodity prices continue to rise, natural disasters such as floods strike, industrial transformation and upgrading are in the ascendant, "triple pressure" needs to be dealt with urgently, and the regional economic structure is changing.
This is 202 1 GDP ranking of major provinces in Chinese mainland:
Which provinces and cities maintain strong growth? Where did you put it?
0 1
Who is advanced and who is backward?
What changes have taken place in the pattern of provinces in the past year?
First, the gap between Guangdong and the Soviet Union remained stable, and Shandong's leading edge over Zhejiang expanded.
202 1, the top five economic provinces are Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang and Henan.
But as far as the annual economy is concerned, the gap between Guangdong and the Soviet Union has widened to about 800 billion, which is basically the same as last year. The gap between Shandong and Zhejiang has expanded from 850 billion yuan in the previous year to 950 billion yuan.
Second, Hubei overtook Fujian and returned to the seventh largest economic province.
Two years ago, Hubei suffered a serious epidemic. In that year, the GDP growth rate dropped by 5%, the lowest since 1978, and the GDP was once surpassed by Fujian.
With the decline of epidemic situation and a series of policy inclinations, Hubei has returned to the track of high growth. 202 1, the real GDP growth rate ranks first in the country.
Third, Chongqing overtook Liaoning, which is the second northeastern province and city after Sichuan.
The northeast once supported the industrial construction of the southwest, but with the change of industrial structure, the economic leading advantage of the northeast over the southwest no longer exists, and many economic provinces in the southwest began to catch up with each other.
Fourth, Shanxi overtook Guizhou and returned to the top 20 provinces.
Guizhou is a growth star in the past few years. With the expansion of industrial investment and infrastructure investment, Guizhou's GDP growth rate has ranked first in the country for several consecutive years.
But 202 1 is different from previous years. Under the influence of global inflation, commodity prices have generally risen sharply, and resource-based provinces have benefited from it. Shanxi's GDP not only surpassed that of Guizhou, but also became a new growth star.
Fifth, the existence of natural disasters such as epidemics and floods has caused the economy of some provinces to fail to meet expectations.
Among them, the most representative are Shaanxi and Henan.
In 202 1 year, Henan's GDP was 5.88 trillion yuan, up 6.4% year-on-year, with an average growth of 3.3% in two years.
The GDP of Shaanxi reached 2,980.098 billion yuan, an increase of 6.5% over the previous year, with an average increase of 4.3% in two years.
At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, Shaanxi was affected by the epidemic, and xi 'an became the second mega-city after Wuhan.
As a strong economic province in Shaanxi, xi's GDP accounts for 1/3 of the whole province. The influence of city closure is not limited to one city and one place, but the whole province.
Compared with Shaanxi, Henan suffered from the double effects of COVID-19 epidemic and flood disaster.
The epidemic situation in Zhengzhou in August 20021year and the epidemic situation in Yuzhou and Anyang at the end of 20021year had great influence on economic development.
In addition to the epidemic, the impact of natural disasters can not be underestimated.
Last July, the rainstorm disaster in Henan Province was listed as one of the top ten natural disasters in China in 20021year by the Ministry of Nature and Environment. According to statistics,14.786 million people were affected, and the direct economic loss was120.06 billion yuan.
These external factors cannot be ignored.
Kai, Editor-in-Chief of Classic of Chinese Studies
Feng Xin Lu, produced by Tsinghua University Publishing House, click on the picture to view.
02
The top three provinces:
Guangdong and the Soviet Union overtook the "Four Little Dragons of Asia" in an all-round way, and Shandong broke 8 trillion for the first time.
Since 1990s, the pattern of the top three economies in China has not changed.
In 202 1 year, the GDP of Guangdong, Jiangsu and Shandong reached 12.43 trillion,1.63 trillion and 8.3 trillion respectively.
The gap between Guangdong and the Soviet Union is about 10%, and Guangdong is still ahead of Changzhou, Jiangsu. (See official announcement! China's first 12 trillion province was born ").
Although the gap between Shandong and Guangdong and the Soviet Union has widened, as the only 8 trillion-level province, Shandong still has a certain leading edge compared with Zhejiang, Henan and other major economic provinces.
According to 202 1 average exchange rate of 6.45, the GDP of Guangdong a.
Today, 40 years later, with the vigorous development of reform and opening up, the provincial economy in the mainland has become an existence that cannot be underestimated in the world.
r & gt
03
Who is the province with the highest GDP growth rate?
The province with the highest nominal GDP growth rate in China spent the first time in the north.
Measured by nominal growth rate, in 20021year, the three provinces with the highest GDP growth rate were Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Hainan.
Measured by the actual growth rate, the three provinces with the highest GDP growth rate in 20021year were Hubei, Hainan and Shanxi.
It can be seen that both Shanxi and Hainan are on the list, and they are the most concerned growth stars of 202 1.
As the analysis in the book "Megatrends of China City" shows, thanks to the free trade port policy, Hainan's economic growth will remain in the leading position in the next few years.
On the other hand, Shanxi benefits from rising coal prices. Under the situation that has not changed in a hundred years, the traditional production capacity of generate rarely shows high growth energy.
In addition, if the national GDP growth rate is 8. 1%, then half of the provinces are lower than this figure, including Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Henan, Shaanxi, Tianjin and other places.
Explain here. GDP can be divided into nominal GDP and real GDP. The so-called nominal GDP growth rate, that is, GDP at current prices; The real GDP growth rate is excluding inflation index.
Generally speaking, as long as there is no deflation, the nominal GDP growth rate will be higher than the actual growth rate. In the context of soaring PPI or CPI, the nominal growth rate will be much higher than the actual growth rate.
This is the case in Shanxi, with a nominal growth rate of 28%, ranking first in the country and a real growth rate of 9. 1%, ranking third in the country, with a difference of about 19 percentage points.
The same is true in Inner Mongolia, where the nominal growth rate is 18.2%, ranking second in the country, while the actual growth rate is only 6.3%, which is less than the national average, with a difference of about 12 percentage points.
04
A sharp increase of 28%!
Why did this northern province become the "king of growth"?
In the past few years, the economic growth rate in the south has been ahead of that in the north. What are the northern provinces such as Shanxi and Inner Mongolia relying on this time?
In 20021year, Shanxi's GDP reached 2.26 trillion yuan, with a real increase of 9. 1% and a nominal increase of 28%, which not only far ahead of the whole country, but also surpassed Guizhou and returned to the top 20 provinces.
The reason why Shanxi has developed so rapidly is not complicated-the price of coal has soared.
In the past year, the global commodity prices generally skyrocketed, especially the average annual increase of coal prices exceeded 70%, and the price of thermal coal doubled, which led to sturm und drang, a resource-rich province.
According to the analysis of the book China Urban Trend, as the largest coal-producing province in China, Shanxi, with its rich coal resources, has experienced rapid economic development, and the name of "coal boss" has spread all over the country. However, due to excessive dependence on coal, economic development is easily affected by industry cycles and macro-policies, and Shanxi's economic ranking in the country once fell continuously.
However, 202 1 is a big year for resource-based provinces, and the coal production capacity in various places has generally expanded.
The data shows that in 20021year, Shanxi's raw coal output reached 165438+900 million tons, which guaranteed the coal supply of16 provinces and cities nationwide, and it was truly the first coal-producing province in China.
At the same time, one outbreak after another has caused global supply chain tension. European and American countries have printed a lot of money to raise inflation expectations, and policies such as dual control of energy consumption have also put coal and electricity resources in a tight situation. Under the superposition of various factors, commodity prices rose across the board.
This aspect can be measured by PPI (Industrial Product Ex-factory Price Index). CPI index measures the consumer price, PPI measures the price of industrial products.
The data shows that in 20021year, the national PPI rose by 8. 1%, and the Shanxi PPI rose by 30.2%, ranking first in the country.
Of course, in the future, with the gradual decline of the epidemic, the global supply chain will return to normal, and with the impact of the Fed's interest rate hike, commodity prices are expected to continue to fall. How to continue the rapid growth of resource-rich provinces after consuming short-term dividends is a problem before us.
05
Southwest economy begins to surpass Northeast in an all-round way?
Northeast and southwest are the two poles of China's regional economy.
As Kaifeng analyzed in the book "Megatrends of China City", before the reform and opening-up, the northeast was the leading industrial town in China, while the southwest existed as a "third-line region".
Northeast China has supported a large number of industrial enterprises, machinery and equipment and even talent funds to four provinces and cities in Southwest China (Sichuan, Chongqing, Guizhou and Yunnan), laying the foundation for industrialization and urbanization in Southwest China.
Northeast China's leading position in the southwest economy has been maintained until around 2008. At that time, as the largest economic province in Northeast China, Liaoning was in the forefront of 10 provinces for many years, and its economic strength was comparable to that of the southeast coastal provinces.
However, after 2008, the situation began to change dramatically.
Not to mention that the economic gap between the northeast and the southeast has widened infinitely, and the economy of the southwest to the northeast has also formed a catch-up trend.
According to the latest economic census data (according to the 20 18 economic census, the previous year's data were comprehensively revised), in 2007, Sichuan's GDP surpassed Liaoning for the first time. In the past 15, Sichuan became the sixth largest province, and its GDP was twice that of Liaoning.
In 20021year, Chongqing's GDP surpassed Liaoning for the first time, Yunnan's GDP is also approaching Liaoning, and the gap between Guangxi, Guizhou and Liaoning is also narrowing.
Once Liaoning's economy is overtaken by Yunnan, Guangxi, Guizhou and other places, "Southwest economy overtakes Northeast" is no longer a legend.
Why is there a turning point in the economic development situation in southwest and northeast China?
The reasons behind this are very complicated. On the one hand, Northeast China faces the old problems of industrial recession, unbalanced population structure and brain drain. How to revitalize the old industrial base has become the theme of the times.
On the other hand, Southwest China has become the beneficiary of a new round of economic reform. Large investment, industrial transfer, domestic circulation and western development have all formed key support.
First, the era of big investment has driven the expansion of infrastructure investment in the western region; Then the industrial transfer in coastal areas, the labor province in the central and western provinces with large population has become the biggest undertaker;
More importantly, the western region has been blessed by many policies. From the western development to the new land and sea passage in the west, from the domestic circular economy to the Chengdu-Chongqing twin-city economic circle, the southwest region plays an increasingly important role in the national strategy.
It remains to be seen whether the southwest can surpass the northeast in an all-round way and whether the new round of revitalization measures in the northeast can exceed expectations.
-End-
Related Q&A: In 2023, China's gdp ranked in China in 2023 (because 2023 is not over yet, the official only gave the GDP ranking in the first quarter):
1, first place: Guangdong province.
2. Second place: Jiangsu Province.
3. Third place: Shandong Province.
4. Fourth place: Zhejiang Province.
5. Fifth place: Henan Province.
6. Sixth place: Sichuan Province.
7. Seventh place: Fujian Province.
8. Eighth place: Hunan Province.
9. Ninth place: Hubei Province.
10, 10th place: Anhui Province.
1 1No. 1 1 Name: Shanghai.
12,No. 12: Hebei Province.
13,No. 13: Beijing.
14,No. 14: Jiangxi Province.
15,No. 15: Shanxi Province.
16,No. 16: Yunnan Province.
17,No. 17: Chongqing.
18,No. 18: Liaoning Province.
19,No. 19: Guangxi Province.
20. Twentieth place: Shanxi Province.
2 1, No.21Name: Inner Mongolia.
22. 22nd place: Guizhou Province.
23. 23rd place: Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.
24. 24th place: Tianjin.
25. 25th place: Heilongjiang Province.
26. 26th place: Jilin Province.
27. 27th place: Gansu Province.
28. 28th place: Hainan Province.
29. 29th place: Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region.
30. 30th place: Qinghai Province.
3 1, No.31Name: Tibet.
"Su Daqiang" Chases "Guangdong Boss"
Judging from the total GDP, the pattern of the top three in Guangdong, Jiangsu and Shandong has not changed. Guangdong is still the "boss" of the total GDP.
However, Guangdong's GDP in the first quarter increased by 3.3% year-on-year, which was slower than that of Jiangsu's 4.6% 1.3 percentage points. Therefore, "Su Daqiang" has narrowed the status gap with "Guangdong boss".
The data shows that the gap between Jiangsu's GDP and Guangdong's in the first quarter of 2023 has narrowed a lot.
In the "Troika", Jiangsu's foreign trade performance is more eye-catching. In the first quarter, imports and exports increased by 14% year-on-year, while Guangdong only increased by 0.6% year-on-year.
The above contents refer to China Net-the GDP map in the first quarter of 2023 has changed. Anhui overtook Shanghai, and the GDP growth rate of 2 1 province exceeded the national growth rate.
For the above contents, please refer to China News Network -3 1 GDP ranking of provinces in the first quarter: Guangdong, Sulu and Shandong ranked in the top three, and Xinjiang had the fastest growth rate.