Now it's hard to buy a house, and it's even harder to buy a house for a second child. How many people in Beijing are preparing their homes for the arrival of their second child? And how much pressure are these people under?
Big data tells the story.
How much demand will the "full two-child" release?
The head of the Beijing Municipal Commission of Family Planning pointed out that it is estimated that the introduction of the "comprehensive two-child" policy will increase the number of resident women of childbearing age in Beijing who are eligible for the comprehensive two-child policy and who can give birth to a second child by about 2.36 million. A survey company in Beijing and online questionnaires are expected to have a desire to give birth to a second child accounted for about 30 percent of women, or 710,000 people.
This, if at the same time there is a demand for housing improvement of 50%, "two-child policy" to the Beijing residential market demand for about 350,000 households (a married woman corresponding to a family), this demand is expected from the implementation of the policy to the implementation of the purchase of housing will take about five years, then each year, the demand for improvement of about 70,000 units. The annual demand for improvement is about 70,000 sets.
Taking the year as an example, if it is expected that this year's total volume of first- and second-hand ordinary residential transactions is about 270,000 sets, of which the improvement of the volume of transactions accounted for about 60%, about 162,000 sets. Then the demand brought about by the "two-child policy" accounts for about 26% of the total turnover of first- and second-hand residential units, and about 43% of the improvement turnover. This year, the two-child policy and other impetus to improve the customer continues to become the main force of the property market.
Now that you know how many people are competing with you to have a second child for a new home, let's take a look at what's changing in terms of what you should buy next.
So for the 70,000 change the need for friends, to change what kind of house?
From some online strategies, combined with the case of some friends around, it is not difficult to find that the house after having two children, at least should meet the following three conditions:
One is a large area: three bedroom upwards
According to the current composition of the family, the three rooms are just in line with the needs of the family to live in: one for the parents, one for the children, one for the elderly. If you don't need the elderly to bring up the children, parents a room, children a room, and a room as a study or leisure room, is also just the scope of the need. But if you have a second child. Three rooms are definitely not enough to live in. When the child is small, you can still use the bunk bed transition. But if the child grows up, even if the same gender, still need a certain personal space. At that time: parents a room, the child a person a room, the elderly a room, want to three generations of the same family, may be four rooms is just the need for products.
The second is a well-designed household: nanny room or elderly room
The two-child family, relying only on the parents to take care of two children is very hard. When you have a child, there are many families where the elderly help to bring up the children, but when you have a second child, the elderly may be too old to carry the body, and you need to take care of yourself, and more often than not, two-children families may have to hire a nanny, and it is likely that this will become the norm.
There are many high-end products on the market that include nanny rooms in their design, and I believe the scope will be wider after the full liberalization of the two-child policy.
These are the more basic requirements for buying a home for two children, know these, we will look at the market situation, to meet these conditions of the property, will not really because of the arrival of the "full two children" and rise faster?
Three- and four-bedroom apartments are really going up faster?
From the price increase of new general residential property before and after the implementation of the policy, it can be seen that the three-bedroom transaction rate is significantly higher than the city's average transaction price, after the implementation of the "full two-child" policy compared to the implementation of the "full two-child" before and after the implementation of the "full two-child" policy. After the implementation of the "comprehensive two-child" policy than before the implementation of the "comprehensive two-child" and "separate two-child" policy before the implementation of the three-bedroom transaction price increase of 30.8% and 72.3%, respectively, compared with the city's new general residential transaction price increase of 9.4% and 11% higher, respectively. It can be seen that the market demand for three-bedroom hotter than average.
And from the second child required just demand and improve the type of three and four-bedroom turnover situation, in 2014, "separate two children" policy began to implement the year, the three-bedroom turnover ratio appeared to grow significantly, up 6.5% year-on-year, for the first time rose to more than 40%; policy implementation of the second year () the three-bedroom ratio remained stable, four-bedroom transactions accounted for a significant increase of 1% year-on-year, the proportion rose from 5% to more than 6%.
The proportion of three- and four-bedroom transactions in the six months following the implementation of the "comprehensive two-child" policy in that year has changed markedly, with the two rising by 5.2% and 0.7% respectively compared with the previous year.
Overall, the total share of three- and four-bedroom transactions rose to 50 percent after the separate two-child policy, and to more than 55 percent after the full two-child policy.
After looking at the change in the total price of improved housing
It is not difficult to see, in the first half of this year, the new residential transaction market, for the two-children family just need and improve the type of household enhancement for the three-bedroom 120-150 square meters, the total price of between 4-7 million, and 170-210 square meters, the total price of 8-10 million of the four-bedroom. In the future, the proportion of transactions of products in this size range and total price will continue to increase.