This golden week is the worst in the past five years.
Beijing, Guangzhou and so on these past big brothers of the property market, one by one, the fire went out, was shattered one by one.
The city of Beijing is so big that the number of second-hand home sales during the eleventh hour was in the single digits, with only 41 suites sold in six days.
▼Residential sales during Beijing's 2014-2019 "Golden Week"
Even if you add in the number of new homes sold, it's only a mere 200 units.
Golden Week sales have hit rock bottom in the past six years.
The worst of the worst wasn't even in Beijing, where no more than 50 new homes were sold during the week in Shanghai.
Even with the demonstration area, the landlord minutes want to teach you to be a person in Shenzhen, the net signing volume of more than 300 sets, basically also in the past few years between the bottom of the transaction.
In contrast to the volume of transactions, the vast majority of first- and second-tier key cities in the second-hand housing listings rubbing up.
Nineteen key cities had nearly 1.2 million second-hand listings, a jump of more than 80 percent from a year earlier.
Some core cities have seen their second-hand home listings hit new highs in the last three years --
Chengdu surpassed 110,000 units; Chongqing is close to 120,000 units; Wuhan surpassed 100,000 units; Guangzhou is close to 60,000 units;
Hangzhou surpassed 50,000 units in the rush of new home inversions, and, if nothing unexpected happens
In the past two months, all first- and second-tier cities in the country, more than 1/3 of the city's second-hand housing prices have stopped rising sideways.
In the past two months, all first- and second-tier cities in the country have stopped rising sideways.
Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Chongqing, Chengdu, Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Qingdao, and Hefei ...... these cities with the best fundamentals in the country, have entered the "frozen housing cycle" --
New homes are not allowed to go up, second-hand sellers can't sell, turnover has fallen, and buyers are harder and harder to find.
You should know that these cities are the backbone of China's real estate market, and they are the money warehouse that deposits the most money in China's real estate market, which anchors more than 70% of the purchasing power in China's real estate market.
Now, the first and second-tier cities have entered the "freeze cycle" one by one, and the money warehouse that anchors the purchasing power has been crushed by the policy one by one.
A huge problem has surfaced over this huge country -
China's property market has entered a chaotic cycle in which the capital of the tourists is scattered, and the retail investors are fleeing for their lives.
A stock hunt has begun around retail investors and lobbyists.
I've spent the past two months bouncing around the country and Southeast Asia.
Going to all the hot cities and visiting all the hot countries.
The more I look, the more confused I get, and the more I want to curse.
1, the anchor of the domestic property market was shattered, the retailer fled to Southeast Asia to buy blindly.
Many people see that the domestic property market in the short term there is no possibility of a storm, it began to run to Southeast Asia to find another way.
Going out is not impossible, but the first goal of going out is "risk aversion".
Regrettably, when greed is on the line, IQ is off the line, and when the idea of storming is born, the probability of stepping on the pit is increased tenfold.
In Bangkok, put the core city, there is the subway, business, industry, population, rent of good houses do not buy; run to the far suburbs of the empty city to chase high-speed rail, bet on the concept, play storm, be harvested.
We learned to speculate on uncompleted flats after Hong Kong, and Bangkok learned to speculate on high-speed rail after us.
Bang Sue, Bangkok, dabbled with the concept of China-Thailand high-speed rail and sold more than half of the houses in the far suburbs to Chinese speculators.
Anyway, it's a gambler's speculation to wrestle a storm, and if you don't gamble on the new high-speed rail city with one domestic vote, why go to Bangkok to gamble?
What kind of spirit is this?
This is a kind of self-interested specializing in the benefit of others, for the construction of the international friends of the country to fill in the pit of the dust, add bricks and mortar of the "spirit of that who".
2, the anchor of Shanghai's property market was shattered, and the retailers scattered to buy blindly around.
Previously, we have talked about the Yangtze River Delta's property market purchasing power, in fact, by the core cities of Shanghai, Hangzhou and Suzhou are firmly anchored.
But now these cities have gone off the rails, a huge Shanghai, a golden week sold no more than 50 suites, you dare believe that this is still the "Chinese money warehouse"?
The core city is cool, the purchasing power began to follow the concept to find the storm.
To say that the concept of speculation, we still have to the Yangtze River Delta these magical old punks bowed.
Shouting "society" and "society".
These magical old punks, the new area of the chain of speculation, the concept of string speculation.
East from Ningbo, there is the Qianwan New Area; west into Shaoxing, Binhai New Area; connected to Hangzhou, there is the Qiantang New Area; north to Huzhou, there is the South Taihu Lake New Area ...... connected to a piece, everywhere overflowing with the concept of integration of the Yangtze River Delta dividend;
Up to the artificial intelligence, the next to the financial town, and the middle of the dress in the middle of the big data applications , modern manufacturing upgrades, robotics ...... and the blockchain town that has just been delisted after the bitcoin stink street.
A concept a pit, a pit buried in a string of retail investors.
After Suzhou cooled off, the lobbyist retailers ran to Changshu, Changzhou and Zhangjiagang.
Just after being shocked by Changshu's ceiling breaking 30,000, Jiangyin's house prices have dried up to 18,000 yuan per square meter ......
Some people say it's called house price rotation;
If you ask me, it's called IQ tax rotation.
3. The anchor of the housing market for homes is shattered, and retail investors are bored into apartments.
Two months ago, I wrote a piece on condominiums called ".
An hour after the article went out, the backend had been overrun by white shirts.
A rough estimate is that more than three generations of my family's ancestors have been greeted by these magical little buddies in shirts and ties.
Today, I don't want to say much about how pitted apartments are, I just want to tell you a cruel reality:
Commission on apartment sales in many cities has been given to 10%;
20,000 down payment to buy an apartment, the agent brother earns 100,000 brokerage fee.
In the investment world, there's an old saying, " The percentage of intermediary draw is inversely proportional to the actual value of the subject matter."
You taste, you fine.
The past two months have probably been one of the toughest years for the housing market.
Why "one"? Because there could be even tougher years ahead.
The amazing thing is that as tough as the years have been, the harvest has intensified.
After the confidence in the domestic property market, the confidence in the property market in the core cities, the confidence in the property market in the residential property market has been shattered, all sorts of demons and monsters have appeared. Even those who are engaged in capital markets want to hack the property market and then take a scoop of the traffic in their hands.
There are middlemen everywhere, and everyone wants to come and make a profit.
Chaos? Don't worry, tomorrow could be even more disorganized.
China's property market has been trading at record highs for the past decade or so in a constant doubling of transactions.
But that doubling rate is getting slower and slower.
From 1998-2008, it grew about 25 percent a year, doubling in three years;
From 2008-2012, it grew about 15 percent a year, doubling in five or six years;
From 2012-2018, it grew about 7 percent a year, doubling in nine to 10 years.
The inflection point was reached in 2018, with 2018 volume up only 1.8% from 2017.
Further on in the next decade or so, there may even be a gradual shrinkage, from a peak of 1.7 billion m2 to 1 billion m2 gradually.
China's property market is moving from the "era of incremental growth" to the "era of inventory".
Previously, it was a good day, we all have increment, you have rice in the pot, I still have meat in the bowl, so you are good, I am good, everyone is good;
From this year onwards, it may become a bowl of rice in your bowl, my bowl of soup, so I have to stare at your bowl of rice, and try to find a way to snatch it.
How to grab it? Speculative concepts, harvesting!
In the face of even more shameless stock grabbing, even more intense disordered market, I have three words for you.
These three sentences may not help you storm, help you rob other people's bowl of rice, but can maximize help you keep your own bowl of rice.
First, the underlying value of the investment goods is to solve a practical problem.
Before you choose a particular investment, think about who will buy it? Will it solve the buyer's real problem?
Secondly, the underlying value of real estate is in meeting the underlying needs of more people.
Behind the house is not a concept, it is a user, a living person.
The value of a house is to satisfy the most basic needs of more people, such as eating, working, dressing, going to school and getting medical treatment.
Third, the return is very high, but can not read the subject, it is best not to touch.
If a certain field, promising a stable annualized return of more than 10%, but you can not read, the probability is that there are fools playing in the field.
Moment around these three words, you can help you bypass the vast majority of future harvest.