1. Diversity and industrialization
2. Data is the capability
Starting in 2019, the use of architecture and big data is narrowing and shrinking these multiple failures; AI has triggered a new round of competition globally, and the data function has been re defined, and this series of changes continues. Digital technologies will also continue to permeate all aspects of architecture, revolutionizing the way buildings interact with buildings and architecture, and breaking down the boundaries between real and virtual buildings in a new economic model.
3. Financial Capability and Operational Vitality
Over a long period of time, on the basis of rapid organizational growth, many organizations have continued to rely on growth rates to find new opportunities in new markets, new resources, and in the pursuit of the organization's goal of rapid growth. When this rate begins to slow down or decelerate, the original extensive development will work towards good development. In addition, the actual building is financial. When capital becomes an important resource for the industry, financial capability and cash flow will become important indicators for assessing the quality of the organization. The industry was originally variously qualified, and the country will continue to erode that standard in the near future; this more complex, enduring test will require companies to continue to keep their businesses viable.
4. The importance of qualifications and business credit system qualifications
Replacing the original business qualifications through the assessment of business credit will be replaced by business credit through the application of blockchain technology in the future. This is when the requirements for business operational requirements and the establishment of an enterprise risk control system are enhanced. Low bids must include performance and quality insurance, and third-party services are introduced to enhance oversight and accountability.
5. Changes in labor and production relations
The aging of the workforce and the demographic dividend of the past have shown us that the initial low costs of the construction industry no longer exist. From 2019, labor services will enter the social security system, and the original way of guaranteeing labor costs and labor income will gradually change. Increasing productivity and reducing dependence on labor will be the idea of the future of the construction industry. Factory industrialization and site industrialization will break the balance and redefine the production relationship, which will be an important way to change the labor supply.
6. The transformation of technology to the traditional construction industry
BIM, GIS, cloud computing, big data, artificial intelligence, 3D printing, Internet of Things, robotics, and other technologies will bring great changes to the traditional construction industry. Digital architecture will build buildings from design, to operations and maintenance. Digitizing the design, owner, build, and supply chain to create new data synergies will efficiency higher, better, and more collaborative platforms for building services. The construction industry accounts for 16% of GDP and has a significant impact on the national economy. Under the new normal where the total volume is no longer growing rapidly, the traditional business and money-making model will be challenged, and the original interest pattern will change; despite the uncertainties in the external market, the construction industry is still a pillar industry in China, and the core support for the construction of "One Belt, One Road" China. In order to accelerate the transformation of the enterprise, Jianyuan Construction Company has been endowed with new construction and organization methods. Through the brand effect, it adsorbs and drives other small and medium-sized enterprises to move in, and promotes the upstream and downstream clustering of the industrial chain. Realize the benefit model of leading the transformation and upgrading of regional industry with Jianyuan Construction Company as the driver. Pooling multiple industrial resources to shape the strategic layout of "Internet + construction, finance + construction, investment + construction", to promote the innovative development of "all corners" of the industry, leading the transformation and upgrading of the economy.
1, infrastructure investment mild rebound
With the successive introduction of infrastructure short board policy, infrastructure investment growth bottomed out and rebounded, since September 2018 to maintain a weak recovery trend. 2019 September the state issued part of the 2020 new special debt limit of 1 trillion yuan in advance, and clearly specified that it shall not be used in the land reserve and real estate related fields, the annual investment in infrastructure, the new special debt limit of 1 trillion yuan, and clearly specified that it shall not be used in the land reserve and real estate related fields, the annual investment in the new special debt limit of 1 trillion yuan. Real estate-related fields, the proportion of special bonds invested in infrastructure throughout the year is expected to increase to 60%, superimposed on the minimum capital ratio of the project from 25% down to 20%, special bonds can be used as capital to participate in project investment and other provisions of the infrastructure investment growth rate will be enhanced.
2, transportation and municipal is still the core focus
2019 the second half of the country released the "western land and sea new corridor master plan" "transportation strong construction program" and other major policies, it is expected that in 2021 the construction of transportation investment will remain the focus. The public **** facilities management industry accounts for 40% of infrastructure investment, and the Central Economic Work Conference has clearly proposed that it will guide funds to short-board areas such as livelihood construction that benefit from supply and demand **** together, and strengthen the construction of municipal pipeline networks, urban parking lots, and cold chain logistics. It is expected that investment in this field will usher in new opportunities in 2021.
3, city clusters + new infrastructure for the development of the construction industry to bring new opportunities
4, PPP into the standardization, high-quality development stage
After nearly two years of policy adjustments, PPP has begun to return to rationality and gradually to the direction of standardization. Some of the PPP projects for the purpose of financing and disguised packaging "pseudo" PPP projects have been cleaned up to a certain extent, in line with the PPP model to use the essential features of the project, green and beneficial to the people of the proportion of the project has increased significantly. As macro policy counter-cyclical regulation continues to increase, the state explicitly supports the special debt can be used as project capital, the competent authorities are also actively exploring the organic combination of PPP and special debt, in an attempt to pry more social investment, to play a stable growth of the national economy and a stronger role in pulling.
5, foreign contracted projects opportunities and challenges
Currently, China's foreign contracted projects industry is shifting from high-speed growth to medium-low growth, and entering the stage of high-quality development. Many uncertainties such as changes in the international economic environment and regional conflicts will affect international infrastructure investment and construction, but there is still a huge demand for construction in some regions, such as the Asia-Pacific, Africa, Latin America, etc. In September 2019, the Ministry of Commerce and other 19 departments issued the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the High-Quality Development of Contracted Outside Contracting Projects", which clarified the industry's goal of moving towards high-quality development. In the future, the traditional EPC and construction general contracting mode will gradually transform to the "investment, construction and operation integration", and the development of the industry will be transformed from cost-driven to innovation-driven, and cooperation innovation, financing innovation and technological innovation will become the new driving force for the development of the industry.
6, the railroad construction market is still a large space
"Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" target task is progressing well, the medium and long term railroad construction is still a large space according to the National Railway Group news, as of the end of 2019, the national railroad mileage will reach 13.9 million kilometers, of which 3.5 million kilometers of high-speed rail. More than 10,000 kilometers, including 35,000 kilometers of high-speed rail. Compared with the "medium and long-term railroad network planning", by 2025, the operating mileage of the national railroad will reach 175,000 kilometers, of which 38,000 kilometers of high-speed railways. Meaning, 2020-2025, the annual mileage of new lines to reach 6000 kilometers, of which 500 kilometers of high-speed rail, railroad construction still has more space.
High-speed rail, urban rail into the planning and construction focus from the plan and reserves to start the construction of railroad projects, high-speed rail projects, investment accounted for a large proportion of the focus of railroad construction. The current national high-speed rail backbone network has been formed, the main task of railroad investment and construction will be converted, high-speed railroads in the central and western parts of the country, intercity railroads within the major urban agglomerations will become the focus of the next step in the development. The demand for upgrading and transformation of old railroads will be increasingly large in recent years, the pace of upgrading and transformation of national railroads has been accelerated, at present, China has opened and operated up to 70 years of railroads have 21,800 kilometers, up to 60 years of 32,300 kilometers, more than 50 years of 41,700 kilometers, the future transformation demand will be increasingly large. In addition, the State Railway Group continues to increase the debt control efforts, the proportion of its infrastructure investment in the total amount of funds utilized continued to decline, local and social capital into the railroad construction funds increased. In the past two years, around the establishment of a high-speed railroad company in Jinan-Qingdao, Chongqing Railway Investment Group and a number of joint venture companies, local joint venture railroad project capital contribution to the local or private enterprise holdings, the State Railway Group participation, more and more local and social capital into the railroad construction market.
7, road construction market stable development
Road construction investment in regional disparities gradually narrowed in the central region and the eastern and western regions of the regional investment gap in highway construction has further narrowed from the point of view of the scale of investment, the western part of the highest, followed by the eastern part of the central lower. From the point of view of the investment growth rate, the central region highway investment from the beginning of 2019, to 60.4% growth rate to open the pace of catching up in 2019. 2021, the central region or will further increase investment.
A number of plans to promote the development of highway construction in 2019 national and local release of highway construction plans one after another, the local level of planning to highway construction, the national level focus on promoting the content of the intercity roads, and airports and ports and other infrastructure connectivity roads, highway construction, and the reconstruction and expansion of existing roads, such as the "Outline for the Construction of a Stronger State of Transportation" put forward to improve the urban agglomeration express highway For example, the Outline of the Construction of a Powerful Transportation State proposes to improve the expressway network of urban agglomerations, and the Outline of the Plan for the Integrated Development of the Yangtze River Delta proposes to further enhance the capacity of inter-provincial road access. The development of highway maintenance market can be expected throughout the year, a number of highway field policy promulgated, from the quality and efficiency, funding arrangements to the construction of rural roads, are in the content of the maintenance market is highly relevant, combined with the future of the construction industry specialized market cultivation of the trend of hotspots, the future development of highway maintenance market can be expected.
8, urban rail transit market prospects
City rail market space is vast, planning and construction more rational by the end of 2019, the country has opened mileage and mileage under construction totaling more than 300 kilometers of the city of only 14, the National Development and Reform Commission approved 43 cities, the majority of the city has not yet formed a comprehensive urban rail network, which is not yet able to meet the real needs of urban public **** transportation.In 2019, Qingdao, Tianjin, Hefei, Xuzhou, Wuxi, Jinan and other cities have reported a new round of urban rail construction planning, and a large number of cities, such as Zunyi, Guilin, Weihai, Handan, Tianshui, Huai'an, Jiaxing, Huzhou and other cities, have completed the near-term construction planning and preparations for the start of construction. However, in terms of planning and construction approval, the national and local development and reform departments have always maintained a prudent attitude. Metro, urban express rail, tram is the main form of urban rail construction from 2018, 2019 new operations and new construction of the line system structure, are mainly metro, urban express rail, tram as a supplement. In the future, the subway is the main choice for mega and mega cities, and the tram is the main choice for general large and medium-sized cities. With the accelerated pace of national urbanization and metropolitan area construction, the transportation demand between urban and suburban areas, cities and cities is getting bigger and bigger, and urban express rail will become the mainstream form. The future trend of urban rail transit is "integrated development", the state proposes to build a "metropolitan circle on the track", and promote the integrated development of urban rail transit and cities, the future of urban rail transit on the one hand, will be y integrated with other transportation systems, on the other hand, will also be y integrated with the development of city-related industries. In the future, urban rail transportation will be y integrated with other transportation systems on the one hand, and with the development of related industries in cities on the other. Therefore, the construction of intercity and municipal rail transportation, as well as the integrated development of the city represented by the TOD model will become a hot spot.
9, water environmental protection construction market running high
Urban sewage treatment into the quality and efficiency stage, rural sewage treatment capacity needs to be improved in May 2019, the Ministry of Housing and Construction and other departments jointly issued the "urban sewage treatment quality and efficiency of the three-year action plan" (2019-2021), since then provinces and cities have also been successively Released around the quality and efficiency of three-year action program. 2020 China's rural sewage treatment rate of 30%, far lower than cities and counties, in recent years China's village and town sewage treatment facilities construction continues to speed up, the future construction prospects are broad. Garbage classification accelerate, promote the development of solid waste industry 2020 as garbage classification around the policy landing and implementation of the key year, 46 key cities will continue to promote the construction of garbage classification related systems and legislation, as well as the implementation of the front-end collection and transportation and end of the disposal capacity. The implementation of the waste classification system will have a great impact on the food waste resource utilization and waste incineration business. Policy final examination period to promote the comprehensive management of the basin with the "Water 10" and "13th Five-Year Plan" final examination year is approaching, the regional comprehensive environmental organization of the heat does not abate to the Yangtze River Basin, for example, the Yangtze River Delta Eco-Green Integration and Development Demonstration Zone, the introduction of the overall program. Superimposed on the Yangtze River protection, the Yangtze River Delta region's ecological environment construction is expected to further release the demand for environmental protection. State-owned enterprises into the environmental listed private enterprises, reshaping the market pattern in 2019, the phenomenon of state-owned shares in private enterprises frequently appear, such as China Construction Group shares in the environmental energy technology, CCCC Group shares in the water source, the state-owned shares can help private enterprises to improve the financial situation, to help the private enterprise investment and business development, and the "national combination" is more likely to create a capital + technology double advantage enterprises, the future is more likely to be more than ever. The company is expected to become a real leader in the environmental protection industry in the future.
10, the probability of real estate investment downward
2020 real estate investment moderate downward in recent years, real estate enterprises to take the land continues to contract, January-November 2019, the land acquisition area year-on-year growth rate of -14.2%, the land transaction price year-on-year growth rate of -13.0%. 2020 growth rate of land acquisition fee will further decline, which will cause real estate development investment to moderate downward.
1, the new era of demand
The construction industry mainly serves infrastructure and real estate. Over the past two decades, infrastructure and real estate investment has been an important driver of economic development. 2007 China's real year-on-year GDP growth rate entered a downward trend, infrastructure and real estate investment accounted for a significant increase in the proportion of current price GDP. After entering the "13th Five-Year Plan", under the influence of supply-side reform policies, the growth rate of infrastructure and real estate investment has slowed down. In the "14th Five-Year Plan" proposal, it is clearly stated that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the main line is to deepen the supply-side structural reform, downplaying the economic growth rate, highlighting the reform and opening up, and accelerating the construction of a new pattern with the domestic macrocycle as the main body, and the domestic and international double-cycle promoting each other. At present, China's leverage rate is as high as 275%, which has slightly exceeded the level of developed countries, and the space to continue to increase leverage is limited, and the future leverage rate should be stable and declining. It is expected that the proportion of infrastructure and real estate investment in GDP will continue to decline. As far as infrastructure is concerned, investment in infrastructure (excluding electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply) from January to October 2020 increased by 0.7% year-on-year. As an important means of stabilizing growth, the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to increase further in 2021. In the future, the quality of infrastructure investment is required to be higher, and regional and sub-sector differentiation will be stronger. Infrastructure investment mentioned in the "14th Five-Year Plan" proposal can be divided into three main dimensions: major projects, transportation in urban agglomerations and new urbanization and livelihood services. In the field of major projects, listed in the future to promote the transportation, water conservancy and hydropower and other major projects, in the construction of the metropolitan area is emphasized in the rail transit, in the field of energy infrastructure emphasized the oil and gas pipeline construction investment. In terms of major national projects, the central financial support is stronger and is expected to realize faster advancement. Metropolitan area rail transit construction mainly involves Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta and other economically developed regions, with better project economics. New urbanization involves non-profit municipal investment, local government investment ratio is high, its advancement depends on the relevant policies and local financial support, municipal projects with their own hematopoietic capacity, and highly relevant to people's livelihoods of water, electricity, gas and heat type of investment is expected to maintain a higher boom. 2020 January to October, real estate development investment growth rate of 6.3% year-on-year growth, the performance of the bright. But into the third quarter, with the introduction of the "three red lines" policy and the "14th Five-Year Plan" proposal of "housing without speculation" reiterated, it is expected that the subsequent year-on-year growth rate of real estate investment or high The year-on-year growth rate of real estate investment is expected to fall, and the growth rate of real estate investment in 2021 should be downward. From the point of view of land acquisition area indicators, 2019 and 2020 January to October year-on-year decline, is expected to 2021 real estate new construction and sales area year-on-year growth rate will slow down, the real estate industry into a new round of adjustment stage.
2, the new pattern of competition
In the infrastructure investment growth rate upward and real estate investment growth rate downward market background and engineering construction organizational model reform policy background, the construction industry size of enterprises, state-owned enterprises and private enterprises between the development of the difference further expanded, market concentration will be further enhanced. Construction industry enterprises generally have a high debt ratio, slow capital turnover, size and shareholder background often become an important reference for credit rating, this aspect of the large state-owned enterprises have the advantage of the survival of private construction enterprises is still relatively difficult environment. The current general contracting model is accelerating the promotion of the industry, in the field of government investment in infrastructure, housing construction, the owner of the design and construction of integrated service capabilities and large projects operating ability to rapidly enhance the requirements of large-scale construction companies are relatively more favorable.
In recent years, the policy to promote the rapid development of assembly construction, looking forward to the "14th Five-Year Plan", assembly as the core of the new building industrialization is the direction of the transformation and upgrading of the construction industry. Digital design, factory manufacturing, construction assembly is an important path to improve the efficiency of the whole industry chain. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the development of assembled buildings is expected to shift from quantity to quality, and the ability to integrate the whole industrial chain, technology and manufacturing resources will become a key competitive factor for construction enterprises. Overall, the construction industry will continue to face a relatively favorable market environment in 2021, but the adjustment of market structure and changes in the competitive landscape will require construction enterprises to accelerate the enhancement of resilience. While doing a good job in market operation and project fulfillment, construction enterprises should continuously carry out organizational renewal and capacity reengineering, actively adjust their business structure and business model, and invest in the construction of talent team and technological capacity to provide impetus for sustainable development of the enterprises