◆? The stock price soared: this is the best of times?
After the listing of Xiaopeng, the market value of the three head new forces is close to Geely and Great Wall. But in terms of sales, only one percent of the latter. It's no wonder that some "traditional car companies" complained that the new forces attracted too much attention. After the listing, these concerns have become real money. As the founder of Xiaopeng Automobile, He Xiaopeng himself held 31.6% of the shares, and his fortune soared by more than 30 billion yuan overnight. Peng behind Lei Jun, Ali and other investors and investment institutions, also earned a lot of money. In the capital market, the new forces are ushering in the "best of times". early August when Peng announced the prospectus, the share price is expected to be 11-13 U.S. dollars, but the final issue price of 15 U.S. dollars, but also issued an additional 15 million ADS (American Depositary Shares). The total amount raised by Xiaopeng thus rose to $1.5 billion, more than the $1.271 billion in the prospectus, and higher than Ideal Automobile's $1.1 billion and Azalea's $1 billion. Based on the issue price of the pre-IPO market capitalization, Xiaopeng 10.82 billion U.S. dollars, ideal 9.724 billion U.S. dollars, and Azure 6.4 billion U.S. dollars. The listing of Xiaopeng has become the largest IPO in the electric car field. The "unexpected" honor is that Xiaopeng's own performance is good enough. Drawing on the experience of Azure and Ideal, Xiaopeng has made sufficient preparations for the listing: the cash reserve reached 8.5 billion yuan before the listing, the cumulative sales of more than 20,000 vehicles, and has 147 experience stores across the country. 2019, Xiaopeng's total revenue reached 2.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 238 times. Good financial data, so that the listing results exceeded expectations. On the other hand, the U.S. stock market in the epidemic after a long period of "exuberance", the offline economy is blocked, a large number of dollars into the stock market, driving the overall market higher. Tesla swelled Wall Street's face, Azure shares doubled 10 times, Ideal also rose more than 60%. No one wants to miss out on another wealth bonanza. Market enthusiasm fueled Peng shares all the way up, the day of the listing, Peng shares rose the most substantial more than 60%. The capital of the carnival and hot, the head of the new car-making forces such as Xiaopeng, is indeed the "best of times", "100 billion market value" can be realized in just four or five years. But for the "traditional car companies", this seems to be the "worst era". Although the mainstream market, also accelerated to the "new four" transformation, but still difficult to get the favor of capital.◆? Gathering of U.S. stocks: the new battlefield of intelligent cars
Capital with real money for the new forces to stand. In the card table called automotive transformation, capitalists bet on "intelligent electric vehicles" rather than "traditional fuel vehicles", bet on "new forces" rather than "old forces". The new force is not the old force. As representatives of the new forces, Azure, Ideal and Xiaopeng have chosen different routes of development. Now that they are listed on the US stock market, they are on the same path. Among the "Troika", Azure is a good hand at business model innovation. User service, power exchange mode, car and electricity separation, Azure in the mode of innovation can often lead the industry. Although the company has been challenged by the "burning money" issue, with the acceptance of the new model by users and the gradual reduction of the innovation cost, the prospect of Azera is becoming clearer and clearer. The ideal is to focus on product innovation, adopting a C2M approach to product development and incorporating user needs into product iterations. In order to solve the user's mileage anxiety, along the add-on program out of a unique road. Xiaopeng is counting on technological innovation. "The road ahead is still the same, the starting point of renewal", this is He Xiaopeng's sentiments on the night of the listing. What does "the road ahead" mean? Undoubtedly is intelligent. Intelligent is Tesla's sword to split the road, now, Peng also want to take up this weapon. "Intelligent cars will replace traditional cars", this is the capital market judgment of the future. At the product level, intelligence will become the core determinant of the user's car purchase. At the business model level, with the popularization of automotive intelligence, the profit model of the car will undergo a fundamental change. In the "Generation Z Automotive Consumption Insight Report" released by Motor Home and Deloitte, the proportion of users willing to pay for in-vehicle digital content has reached 25% in the young group. Hardware is purchased once, software is charged continuously, and a new era of automobile business is coming. Chen Qingtai, Chairman of the China Electric Vehicle Association (C EVAA), said, "The automobile has been transformed from a mobile machine to a mobile intelligent terminal." A vivid example is that Tesla is already collecting money through software upgrades, Acceleration?Boost service, totaling nearly 20,000 in charges. In the foreseeable future, selling services will be more profitable than selling cars. For capital, this is far more sexy than the traditional car companies "build cars - sell cars". Intelligent electric vehicles will certainly replace traditional fuel vehicles, but the new forces will certainly replace the old forces? As Samsung can stay ahead of the curve in the smartphone era, those who are rapidly turning the head of traditional car companies will have a place in the new world. The capital market has become a new battlefield for the new forces to compete, if the new forces take the success of the capital market as the success of the business operation, perhaps they will lose themselves in the wrong positioning.◆? User recognition: there is still a long way to go
Although the market value easily catch up, but want to catch up with traditional car companies in terms of sales, the new forces still have a long way to go. For Xiaopeng, this is both the problem of electric vehicle product ****, but also the existence of their own personalized problems. The auto home user big data research shows that the consumer's brand impression of Xiaopeng mainly stays in the face value, handling, cost-effective, for Xiaopeng emphasized the "smart", the user is still lack of effective perception.『Key factors for purchasing a car for Xiaopeng P7 users; source: AutoNavi Big Data』
There are two reasons here. Subjective reasons, Xiaopeng's propaganda on intelligence is not sufficient. According to the prospectus data, the proportion of R&D personnel and the proportion of R&D investment in Xiaopeng is the highest among the "three carriages", and the proportion of R&D expenses to total income even reached 89.2% in 2019. High R&D investment means less marketing expenses, and it is difficult for users to fully understand the intelligent features of Xiaopeng in the short term. Objective reasons, Xiaopeng intelligent has not yet achieved absolute advantage. The percentage only reflects the attitude. From the point of view of the total amount of funds, Xiaopeng's total R&D investment of 2.07 billion yuan in 2019 is a big gap compared to Azure's 4.43 billion yuan. Although it is not who spends more money who is powerful, but the intelligent advantage of Xiaopeng is not yet enough to form a market advantage. Take automatic driving as an example, Xiaopeng's Xpilot?3.0 system perception ability is weaker than Waymo, computing power is also inferior to Tesla's upgraded Autopilot?3.0 system. Nowadays, intelligence has become the "standard" for automotive products, and the realization of fully autonomous driving is the same pursuit of the automotive industry. On the first day of the listing of Xiaopeng, Azure disclosed a 75 million share issuance plan, which will raise 1.7 billion dollars for the research and development of automated driving; Ideal is also preparing 1 billion dollars in cash reserves for automated driving. In the era when everyone is fighting for intelligence, Xiaopeng has not been able to do so for the time being to lead by a body position. This limitation will be manifested in sales. As of July, the cumulative delivery of Xiaopeng P7 was 1,966 units, less than the single-month sales of ES6 and IdealONE. Although the cumulative sales of Xiaopeng G3 reached 18,700 units, the average monthly sales of only about 1,000 units after entering 2020, the latter is not strong enough. The main focus on intelligence has not brought the desired effect. But this may also be the longest road. On the day of the listing, He Xiaopeng said in an interview that Xiaopeng's thinking path is not to do small positioning, only long term thinking. This way of thinking with the end in mind is often a necessary element for the successful. The foundation of any business model innovation is technological innovation. Instead of doing simple things, we should do difficult things and do long-termism. The listing provides security for the route chosen by Xiaopeng, but the short-sightedness of the capital market and the wind may also bring about a backlash. in September, Xiaopeng will soon deliver its first report card after the listing, and if the market performance is not in line with expectations, the share price will also be subject to volatility. Tesla and Azure have experienced this kind of pain, and Xiaopeng will also face these challenges from time to time. The more central issue is balancing short-term financial performance with long-term development goals. Realizing the smart vision requires a long-term and committed commitment, and while going public provides funding, it can also be a constraint. Dealing with the capital market requires conviction and wisdom.◆? Conclusion
With the listing of Azure, Ideal, and Xiaopeng in the US, the capital market has become a hotbed of activity. However, the listing is just the beginning of a new race, and the new "troika" of new forces will start the race in a new dimension. Entering the era of intelligent cars will be a long process, whether it is Xiaopeng or Azalea, Ideal, all need patience. Simmer down, survive, the real spring is still ahead. (Article/Automotive House? Jiang Pingping)