What are the reasons for the dumbing down of the shots? Here are a few possible explanations:
Match ball.Maybe players shoot poorly because they aren't good shooters in the first place. But if that were the case, goal scoring in other top-level tournaments should also be low. Yet, in 29 matches in the knockout stage of this year's Champions League, the **** had 82 goals, compared with 59 total goals in the 2006 edition, which also featured 29 matches. The UEFA Champions League is Europe's top club tournament, concentrating most of the world's best players.
Stats.Whether or not the claim of so-called shot percentage is subjective, it will vary from statistician to statistician. For example, ESPN's figures for that match between Spain and Switzerland were 25 shots on goal and five on target, while the figures released by tournament organizer FIFA were 24 shots on goal and eight on target. Meanwhile, ESPN figures show Switzerland had nine shots, two on goal; FIFA's were eight shots, three on goal. That makes a big difference when you do the math. FIFA came up with an overall shot percentage (the term I'll use to denote the percentage of shots on goal, regardless of whether they ended up going in or not) of 33 percent, while ESPN's was 26 percent. (It's quite possible that FIFA doesn't count saved goals). Similarly, for the 2006 World Cup, FIFA tallied 48% of shots on goal, while ESPN's was 44%. In 2002, however, the numbers were nearly identical. Both sources say that the shot rate in this World Cup has dropped significantly compared to the previous one. in 2006, the figure was 44 percent.
A low-probability surprise.Like the Montreal Canadiens blowing through the Major League Hockey playoffs (NHL) while the Washington Capitals were knocked out of the tournament early, some teams have surprisingly high shot percentages, though that performance doesn't hold up consistently. Perhaps the players are just unlucky right now and will enjoy scoring goals over the next three-quarters of the schedule.
Team troop standoffs and tactical play.Every team has been able to defend effectively from time to time. The weakest team in the World Cup seemed to take to heart the way Greece lined up when they won Euro 2004. At the time, Greece stuck to a defensive counter-attacking style of play, with a heavily guarded backline that repelled each of their opponents' strong attacks. Only two teams (Germany and Uruguay) have scored more than two goals in their first 17 matches at this year's World Cup, and both of them have done so with one of their opponents sent off with a red card. There are indications that players are being forced to try to shoot in areas away from the goal box in front of a solid defense. According to FIFA, in the first 17 matches, 241 shots were taken from outside the penalty area, compared to 186 in the penalty area. 40% of the shots from close range were on target, compared to 27% from further out (the rest were either saved or kicked off the touchline). However, because the data for other soccer matches is not yet available, it is not possible to conclude that this represents a trend towards longer-range shots.