The relative balance between demand and supply is the decisive factor for the smoothness of the national economy. To achieve this balance, the state proposes to supply-side reform. Read a lot of supply-side reform articles, the large sector is relatively macro, and the author believes that the refinement of the "supply-side" reform needs to promote industrial development recommendation engine system and China's industrial information platform, the need for big data-driven, need to form an effective positive feedback mechanism, such as the big data recommendation engine technology system to refine the solution to the problem.
1) a comprehensive understanding of the demand side (the reform of the people) "healthy" (not blind demand) needs;
2) a comprehensive understanding of the supply side of what industries to meet these needs.
It is clear that this is an industrial development to match the needs of people's lives, industrial restructuring, the need for industrial recommendation engine, what needs to be developed, what needs to be adjusted according to the needs of the people's lives, the regional demand, to provide them with products and services they like, which and e-commerce site of the principle of personalized recommendation engine is very similar. Intelligent recommendation engine in the e-commerce site's basic logic is what? It is based on the user's needs, labels, behavior, popularity, interest, geography, exploration and other logic in the mall to discover products that meet the user's needs, in order to predict the behavior of the group, recommending products of personal preference. In the growing popularity of online shopping today, the individual's relatively stable purchasing needs and the website provides a huge variety of products between the contradiction is increasingly prominent, "information overload" (now is the industry overload) and "information loss" (the development direction of the lost, or not enough refinement) of the phenomenon of the growing seriousness of the phenomenon. E-commerce companies make good use of the recommendation technology to solve this problem, the recommendation engine according to the user label, behavior, shopping time, location and other external factors and provide consumers with more and more satisfied with the product recommendations. This logic is very suitable for the supply-side reform in front of us, the reformer how to accurately grasp and utilize the current life of the people's consumption demand, through the optimization of the investment structure, industrial structure, in the economy on the basis of sustainable high-speed growth in order to achieve sustainable economic development and people's living standards continue to improve. So the author believes that supply-side reform will need supply-side recommendation engine!
This is obviously this is the need for big data thinking, is a big data problem, rather than slogans and macro issues, the need for data to speak, data management, data decision-making, on the one hand, the people's needs to discover and forecast, on the other hand, the number of products produced, quality, and industrial capacity ratio. How to establish such an algorithmic model, leveraging big data and Internet technology, so that the production of products is not excessive, consumers just like. This is a systematic project, not a perceptual project, so we need to use scientific means to solve, first establish a model, and then constantly optimize.
First of all, we need to be clear
1)Supply-side reform objectives
How much GDP development? How much does the development of each industry increase? What are the needs of the people? What are the data of various needs? For example, a few houses, a few cars, all of which need to be based on the 13th Five-Year Plan to make a rough plan, so that the supply-side reform has a goal, there is data to rely on, there is data to manage, there is data to make decisions.
2) supply-side reform recommendation engine algorithm model;
Establishment of industrial development recommendation Kanban, according to indeed the needs of the people and the development of existing industries, recommending enterprises to focus on the development of which industries, which industries, which services, the regional economic development first of all to their own self-sufficiency (necessities of life), and then have their own characteristics. For example, the northwest region backward clothing production, relying on southern enterprises clothing production to meet the demand for clothing in the northwest, although the logistics is very developed, but still very energy-consuming, high transportation costs, some of life's necessities can best be achieved by localized production; regional economic development characteristics of the economy is to say that, according to the characteristics of the region, the organization of effective production reforms. Gansu Longxi region, for example, first of all to the people of the region's basic needs of self-sufficiency, and then vigorously develop the development of medicinal enterprises. And focus on the development of real estate enterprises, so that the people centralized housing, and promote large-scale agricultural planting. Gansu region people's housing and water resources can be centralized to solve. Instead of going their own way.
Re: last year's "double eleven", a large foreign supermarkets in the Tmall sold 2.24 million liters of imported milk, close to the Chinese people's daily demand for liquid milk into; not only the milk powder, Japanese toilet seat, South Korean cosmetics, U.S. cell phones, etc., in the best-selling "Amoy" commodities at the top of the list ...... This is not simply a "foreign panderer". This is not a simple "worship foreigners", which reflects the Chinese people in the standard of living after the improvement of consumer product quality, but also reflects China's long-standing "supply side" of the lack of contradiction." This shows that demand has changed." At present, China's industrial structure is relatively low-end, high-end capacity demand, high-quality products, the domestic supply can not be solved; and the structure of supply is also a problem. A large amount of supply capacity in China is overcapacity, and it is a low-end overcapacity." So, what we need to do now is to reform from the supply side." By analyzing data like this, we will need to strengthen the production of products for the higher end of the supply.
This kind of modeling takes into account the development and changes in demand for the current, the next five, ten years, and once it is established, it can be implemented in short, medium and long term strategies. National economic development is integrated and planned plus implemented. Local economic development, such as market-oriented development strategies, these strategies are identified as algorithms, through the data formula to implement to constantly tune, to achieve the concept of behavior, behavioral institutionalization, system information, refinement, scientific is a long-term solution.
3) industry reform algorithm model, the industry is different reform model is also different, so the need to refine the reform ideas, can not be one-size-fits-all, the need for data to speak;
Industrial supply-side reform model
Agricultural supply-side reform model
Financial supply-side reform model
Real estate industry supply-side reform model
Take the real estate industry as an example To dissolve real estate inventory
"To dissolve real estate inventory and promote the sustainable development of the real estate industry". This is a reaffirmation of real estate as a pillar industry. Promote the sustainable development of the real estate industry, not only because this industry can drive the development of many downstream industries such as iron and steel, cement, electrolytic aluminum, etc., to dissolve the production capacity of these industries, and effectively promote employment, but also from the promotion of "human urbanization" considerations, the development of the real estate industry is the development of the 250 million lack of the corresponding rights of the citizens of the urban resident population can be a real material prerequisite to settle down. This is to eliminate supply constraints at the regulatory level.
Model of supply-side reform of the manufacturing industry
Model of supply-side reform of the service industry
Model of supply-side reform of the cultural industry
Model of supply-side reform of the film industry
Each of them has the trend and direction of the industry's development and the demand for regional development, and their own characteristics, for example, in the home appliance industry, where the basic needs of the nation's people are met on a On the basis of limited development of intelligent home appliances, internationally competitive home appliance market. Carefully approve the construction of projects due to relationships, due to land concessions or other non-market oriented factors. Form data on such planning, score it, and give limited approval to supply-side industry reform programs with higher scores. Formation of data to influence the reform strategy. This year's vegetable New Year's price so high, the people's basic life is affected, that is to say that the agricultural industry are in need of reform. The fundamentals of this reform is to be various quarters of various festivals this supply to keep up, to basically meet.
4) supply-side reform engine deployment path;
First put forward by the various local reform programs, and then by the economic belt unified synergistic approval of the development, such as the Wuxi development outline submitted to the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the Yangtze River Economic Belt to collect the development of the economic belt of various administrative regions outline, and then integrated planning, in coming up with a unified data, back to Wuxi to do the development of the adjustment. This forms the inverted triangle economic development program management system, and then run, and then feedback data, and then adjusted. This and the e-commerce site's recommendation engine algorithm of self-learning is very similar to the recommended accuracy, the algorithm continues, inaccurate need for deep learning to recalculate.
5) Positive feedback mechanism after the reform
What is the relationship between the pre-reform and post-reform, how to judge whether our supply-side reform recommendation engine is reasonable, these need to be associated with the industry reform satisfaction, people's life satisfaction. Feedback economic planning and reform model optimization. At the same time to establish an early warning mechanism to inform enterprises to develop which industries have how much risk, how saturated?
So what platform should the establishment of the supply-side reform recommendation engine rely on? I think we need private Chinese industrial information platform, that is, the national industrial development data query and analysis platform. First assume that the National Industry and Commerce Administration has established a platform for all industries to interconnect, like an e-commerce site, you can query to go to the national economic indicators, the people's basic food, clothing, housing and transportation needs, query the technical data of the historical industry and industry, query the data of a single enterprise, query the data of the industry, query the data of the industry, personalized recommendations for the establishment of the type of enterprise, personalized recommendations for the type of industry of the region's limited development and so on. Then it is an important data platform for reform, I think the platform carries the following functions:
First, the national economic indicators, according to the authority, the United States important statistical departments, to understand the country's economic indicators, assuming the following chart: second, industrial data query; third, industry data query; fourth, the regional economic query, the regional economic development recommendations; fifth, the development and analysis of economic indicators. The establishment of this platform is conducive to, the scientific landing of the national supply-side reform. Last year, the central economic work conference emphasized that in 2016 and the coming period, we should focus on strengthening the supply-side structural reform while moderately expanding aggregate demand. The meeting concluded that the economic and social development in 2016, especially the structural reform task is very heavy, the strategy should adhere to the steady progress, grasp the rhythm and strength, and tactics should seize the key points, mainly to grasp the five major tasks of removing production capacity, de-inventorying, deleveraging, cost reduction, and replenishment of short boards. The establishment of the platform is conducive to the realization of these goals.
Lastly, I would like to say that the supply-side reform, similar to the national NRP (National Resource Program), because the country's people's demand is basically predictable within a year, the country's resources are also relatively fixed. How it is managed, matched, is critical. Abundant resources, demand for simple management is relatively easy, complex resources, demand for all-encompassing when the management needs to be refined, no big data, no such industrial adjustment recommendation engine ideas to achieve a struggle, or no way to start.
Therefore: the refinement of the "supply side" of the reform needs to be recommended engine system of industrial development and China's industrial information platform!
The above ideas are still relatively shallow, but the author would like to illustrate a problem, that is, to carry out refinement, data-based reform. Learning e-commerce site recommendation engine business logic refinement reform of the algorithm model, continuous optimization, positive feedback. Refinement of the Chinese dream can be more clear quantitative realization in stages.