Chengdu's move to shelve second-hand listings is the same as Shanghai's, and similar to Shenzhen's previous second-hand guide price, so industry insiders speculate that Chengdu's second-hand guide price is on its way. After the previous "322" new policy, the Chengdu market turnover did slow down, but the market is still overheated, the second-hand housing rose too high, the government tightened the second-hand housing regulation is reasonable.
However, in this way, some owners who find it difficult to accept price cuts are likely to put forward a "yin and yang contract" requirements, then higher than 39,300 yuan/square meter of that part of the house price, it is likely that the buyer will become more of a down payment.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute Think Tank Center, believes that Chengdu's shelving of second-hand housing sources indicates an escalation of control, and it is foreseeable that the subsequent long-term management of second-hand housing will be accelerated. A deeper look, Chengdu is now appearing in the first suite mortgage interest rate increase, the second-hand housing guide price will soon be introduced, centralized land supply scale enlargement and other control measures. In order to cool down the property market, Chengdu's recent regulation is intensive, and mainly for the purchase side to reduce leverage.
Demand-side leverage reduction
Zhang Fei (a pseudonym) has really felt the impact of Chengdu's downgrading of high-priced properties. He was recently in the process of trading a second-hand house is bumping into the muzzle of the regulation. Because the list price is higher than 39,300 yuan / square meter, the owner has clearly proposed to sign a yin and yang contract. Zhang Fei is very clear, in addition to the contract signed in accordance with the 39,300 yuan / square meter unit price to loan in addition to the extra part of the house, need to raise money to solve the problem.
The situation faced by Zhang Fei can be said to be one of the norms of Chengdu's regulation into deep water. In the past year, the first and second-hand houses in Chengdu rose significantly. The most typical increase appeared in April 2020, the National Bureau of Statistics data show that in April 2020, Chengdu's new housing rose 0.7%, up 10.3% year-on-year in 2019; the second-hand housing rose 2.1% year-on-year, up 4.1% year-on-year in 2019. The increase in second-hand housing hit a five-year high, much higher than the highest single-month increase of 1.7% in second-hand housing in September 2016, before the purchase restrictions in Chengdu, and besides, the price of second-hand housing in Chengdu in 2020 was higher than that in 2016, the price of second-hand housing in Chengdu was higher than that in 2016.
By April this year, Chengdu's new homes rose 0.5% from a year earlier and 6.6% year-on-year; second-hand home prices rose 0.3% from a year earlier and 7.4% year-on-year. Chengdu's pressure to control housing prices is growing.
A big reason for the rise in second-hand housing in Chengdu comes from the performance of primary housing. Chengdu's property market changes in recent years can be glimpsed through the high-tech zone. Zheng Min (a pseudonym) bought his first house in 2020, located in Chengdu's high-tech district, an area that has also seen the fastest rise in house prices in Chengdu in the last two years. On the one hand, Zheng Min works in a bank in the high-tech zone; on the other hand, the young couple thought that buying a house in the high-tech zone would be more comfortable for them to live in the future. With the high-tech zone into the peak construction period, the second-hand housing has been bullish, the recent Chengdu off the shelves of more than 39,300 yuan / square meter of second-hand housing sources, located in the high-tech zone there are a lot. Anjuq website shows that the average price of second-hand houses in Chengdu's high-tech zone rose from 22,500 yuan/square meter in June 2020 all the way to 32,200 yuan/square meter in May this year, an increase of about 43% in a year.
Why is the large amount of demand in the property market falling into the high-tech zone? The reason is obvious: due to the investment of Internet giants such as Alibaba, Tencent, NetEase, etc. have landed, a large number of employment opportunities in the high-tech zone has also surfaced; previously, many young people who just entered Chengdu to fight for the purchase restriction, you can only buy high-tech south of the house, the supply of new housing is not enough to meet the demand, the second-hand market is therefore rising.
At the end of 2019, Chengdu adjusted its purchase restriction policy, and people who have the qualification to buy houses in the Gaoxin South District can also buy houses in Chengdu Tianfu New District, Gaoxin West District, Jinjiang District, Qingyang District, Jinniu District, Wuhou District, and Chenghua District, which moderately disperses the pressure of the supply in the Gaoxin South District. However, this also drove up the price of second-hand houses in other areas, which led to an increase in land auction prices.2021 The floor price of land in a number of suburban plates in Chengdu exceeded 20,000 yuan/square meter. In recent years, the average price of commercial residential transactions in Chengdu's remote suburbs, Qingbaijiang District, has been 7,871 yuan/square meter, which is also at the middle level among the remote suburbs. Chengdu Ruili agency data show that the area's current stock is less than a million square meters, according to the 2020 rate of depolymerization, the depolymerization time is only 4 months.
Higher mortgage rates
After exhausting the purchase and price restrictions, Chengdu's property market regulation and control has made its intention to reduce leverage on the demand side more and more obvious. Although the national mortgage rates have declined, but Chengdu mortgage rates are quietly floating. In terms of mortgage tightening, Chengdu is considered one of the strictest cities at present. It is also the city with the highest interest rate for first suites, with an average mortgage rate of 5.93 percent.
Cheng Min, a bank clerk in Chengdu, was more fortunate, as she applied for a loan at a rate of 5.88 percent. According to data from the Rong360 Big Data Research Institute, the new mortgage rate in Chengdu reached a maximum of 6.13 percent at the end of 2020.
In fact, in order to curb the property market, the current first-suite loan rate in Chengdu is commonly 5.88%-6.1%. It is understood that at present, some of the first suite mortgage rates in Chengdu up 20%-25%, the highest execution rate of 6.13%; the second suite commonly up 25%-30%, the highest execution rate of 6.37%, basically the same as last month.
Cheng Min believes that Chengdu in recent times, home purchase interest rates continue to rise, the cost of purchasing a home in the increase, but to a certain extent, also inhibit the growth of housing prices, so the mortgage interest rates, in fact, suppressing the speculators, disguised in the protection of the rights and interests of the fresh demand. In Zheng Min's perception, the past ten years, no matter how high the interest rate of home purchase, and finally with the substantial increase in housing prices, the significant appreciation of the house can completely cover this point of the floating interest rate. So she, as a fresh demand family, said it will not be because of the mortgage rate rise and not buy a house, "regardless of the future of housing prices is up or down, and regardless of how much interest rates rise to, the house that should be bought, the hard head will also still buy."
Regulation optimization
Since 2021, Chengdu's regulation of real estate has been increasing. For example, "foreclosure" is included in the purchase and sale restriction policy, and the sales period of popular properties has been increased from three years to five years. In addition to these, there are a series of regulatory policies aimed at ensuring the healthy and stable development of the real estate market in Chengdu.
Shenzhen, the first to propose a reference price system for second-hand housing transactions, the effects of which have been initially reflected: the second-hand housing transactions have cooled considerably, and the market has changed dramatically. Chengdu has not shied away from learning from Shenzhen. In order to overall market stability, the Chengdu government proactive, regulation is constantly optimized and adjusted: for example, in the strict investigation of business loans, off the shelves of high-priced second-hand housing, last year required the sale of well-furnished houses, but because of the market's concern about the quality of the housing, and gradually returned to the state of clear water housing.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, analyzed that most of the cities with significantly higher prices for second-hand houses are concentrated in areas with a strong atmosphere of real estate speculation, where investors gather. This round of second-hand housing price control is a new thing in this round of real estate regulation and control, it is expected that the second-hand housing price control in the first and second-tier cities across the country will become a trend, and more cities may increase the second-hand housing price listing control. Shenzhen has already seen a downward adjustment of second-hand housing offers, and it is expected that under the continued patching of policies, the rise in housing prices will slow down significantly.
From August 2020, the "three red lines" policy was put forward, real estate regulation and control policies continue to increase. 2021 March, the land "two centralized" policy was introduced, the real estate industry has formed a closed loop of regulation and control from the real estate enterprises, banks to local governments. The closed loop of regulation, financing dividend and land dividend era is over.
From the recent centralized land supply situation around the world, real estate enterprises in the city's core location of the profit margin is declining. After the completion of the first centralized land supply in Hangzhou, the management of Riverside Group said in response to investor questions that the profit margins of the plots taken were estimated at 1-2%. Chengdu is the same. Has been in the main city of Chengdu, Asahi, the company's investment and development staff also said that the core area of the main city plots is really difficult to profit.
Close to Hangzhou, Chengdu's first concentrated land supply also includes a number of "double-restricted land," prompting industry insiders to question the quality of the housing that will follow. A Chengdu real estate company pointed out that Hangzhou has a "private enterprise world" atmosphere, while Chengdu is not, state-owned enterprises such as urban investment companies can often take TOD projects, Vanke, Longhu rarely have the opportunity to take large-scale mixed-use projects. Industry insiders speculate that after the completion of the first centralized land supply in Chengdu in June, the market may be another scene, when the property market control may appear a new path.