"Only by stepping up the policy focus points in place in 2016 can we expect to realize China's economic growth above 6.5% in 2016, otherwise the pressure is relatively high."

Li Xuesong, deputy director of the Institute of Quantitative and Technological Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in Beijing on March 16 that the focus point of China's macroeconomic policy in 2016 should be to increase the strength of the positive fiscal policy, and to focus on building a new type of centralized fiscal and tax relations. Meanwhile, it should accelerate the reform of competitive state-owned enterprises and promote the disposal of zombie enterprises.

In the "2016 Economic Situation Symposium - Focus: New Normal, New Reform, New Development" organized by the Academy of Social Sciences on the same day, Li Xuesong said that in 2016, the active fiscal policy can make efforts in four areas, including in the investment In the field of infrastructure construction to strengthen the main public **** product investment; in the field of production to improve the camp to increase, reduce the value-added tax rate of the manufacturing industry; in the field of income combined with the poverty alleviation project through the strengthening of transfer payments, directly and indirectly to accelerate the growth of the income of the middle and lower income people; in the field of consumption to improve the consumer environment, to open up the consumption of some of the weak links in the circulation.

Li Xuesong said, positive fiscal policy should focus on the total account, and significantly increase the implementation of efforts to boost market confidence. The study showed that general public **** budget spending rebounded sharply in 2015, but land transfer revenue and expenditure declined significantly, and local investment and financing platforms gradually moved toward standardization from rapid expansion in the past.

Li Xuesong said that the positive fiscal policy should take into account a comprehensive consideration of raising the deficit rate, issuing additional local special bonds and issuing special financial bonds, as well as promoting the camp reform, land transfer payments fell, the decline in profits of state-owned enterprises, and standardizing local investment and financing platforms and other factors. The total impact of fiscal policy in two different directions of expansion and tightening significantly increase the total strength of active fiscal policy. To especially deal with the central and local financial relations, moderate expansion of local financial sources, mobilize local enthusiasm, on the one hand, increase the proportion of local tax revenue sharing, on the other hand, speed up the establishment of a new local tax system, and gradually reduce the dependence on land finance.

At the symposium, Li Xuesong suggested implementing a structurally loose monetary policy in 2016 to prevent falling into a vicious cycle of debt and deflation. He said structurally loose monetary policy should be implemented in 2016 in conjunction with proactive fiscal policy to maintain reasonably abundant liquidity and moderate growth in the scale of social financing.

"Developed economies in the encounter deflation, the need to implement loose monetary policy, the previous few years in the process of the 4 trillion stimulus plan, monetary easing than the fiscal easing is greater, the current stage to prevent excessive easing led to asset bubbles, the implementation of some of the structural easing of the monetary policy, to prevent the flow of excessive easing to the virtual economy. At the same time to speed up the reform of the governance system of financial institutions to prevent systemic financial risks." Li Xuesong said that in the current situation that the banks' separate business operation and separate supervision can no longer adapt to the mixed business operation and separate supervision, the reform of the governance system of "one line, three chambers" should be accelerated to speed up the construction of a new system of unified supervision, **** the same supervision, big data supervision, and long-term interest supervision, to guard against systemic financial risks and as the top priority in 2016. The year's top priority.

"It should also speed up the reform of competitive state-owned enterprises and promote the disposal of zombie enterprises." Li Xuesong said that in China's existing institutional mechanism, China's enterprises to capacity, zombie enterprise disposal need to accelerate the promotion of competitive state-owned enterprise reform, promote mixed ownership reform, to ease the deflationary pressure. At the same time to strengthen the study of the TPP rules, increase China's four free trade zones reform efforts, for China's overall reform to promote the creation of useful experience.

"Only by stepping up the policy focus points in place in 2016 can we expect to realize China's economic growth above 6.5 percent in 2016, or else the pressure is relatively high." Li Xuesong expects that in 2016 China's investment still maintains a stable growth of about 10%, real estate is difficult to have a significant reversal, consumption to maintain stable growth, imports and exports to maintain negative growth, prices CPI to maintain a small positive growth, the PPI may have a negative growth of about 4%, deflationary pressure in 2016 will continue for a period of time. It is hoped that by increasing the implementation of demand-side and supply-side policies, to promote China's economy out of deflation as soon as possible.

(The above answer was posted on 2016-02-17, the current relevant housing policy please prevail)

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