This reporter? Automotive Editorial Office

Fu Yuwu, honorary chairman of the Chinese Society of Automotive Engineering: Overall, China's auto industry will develop in a good direction amid changes in 2020. Because China's auto market has not yet hit the top, there is still a lot of room for upward mobility, and at the same time we will have big initiatives in overseas markets. In the process of accelerated reshuffling, improving our own capabilities and enhancing our core competitiveness, our industrial chain and innovation chain will become stronger. Of course, the restructuring of transformation and upgrading will also be closely linked to industrial power. If the formation of China's automotive power of the solution to complete a new transformation I predict that it will take 10 years.

China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) Deputy Secretary General Shi Jianhua: Based on the macro-economy is still in a downward trend, the economic structure of enterprises will continue to diverge, environmental protection regulations are becoming increasingly stringent, the international environment is not ideal, the decline in consumer spending power, wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and other factors. Automobile sales are expected to decline by 2% year-on-year in 2020.

Zeng Zhiling, director of automotive market research at LMC?Automotive Asia-Pacific: I personally think that the car market situation in 2020 will probably be the same as in 2019. If we split the overall sales volume into regions according to the city level, we will find that one of the hardest hit areas of the market decline in the past two years is concentrated in cities below the fourth tier, where consumers are very sensitive to price, and where the purchase tax reduction policy for small-displacement cars in the previous few years overdrafted the consumer demand in these markets in advance. After two years of adjustment and recovery, in the fourth quarter of last year, sales in the fourth, fifth and sixth-tier cities have begun to stabilize, and even rebound, which is a positive signal.

But on the other hand, the second-tier cities, the heavyweights among the first, second and third-tier cities - represented by cities such as Dongguan, Suzhou and Zhengzhou - have weakened, turning from positive to negative since July last year. This is because these cities are dominated by externally-oriented economies, and the impact of the trade war between China and the U.S. has spilled over into local automobile consumption. The current uncertainty over the future of the US-China talks is the downside.

All in all, after the market stabilizes after the adjustment is completed in 2020, China's auto market will return to normal growth thereafter, maintaining a positive growth rate of 2-3 percent per year.

The second question: the independent brand upward breakout, where is the road?

Li Donghong, associate professor of innovation, entrepreneurship and strategy at Tsinghua University's School of Economics and Management, said: Under the background of continuous upgrading of consumption in the Chinese market and in the face of the cold winter of the automobile market, the fundamental reason for the survival of independent brands to be squeezed is the lack of high-end brands.

It can be seen that a high degree of proximity to the market is the advantage of independent brands in the past development, but also the fundamental future development. Independent brands need to convey a clear signal of brand connotation to the target market and continue to consolidate.

In the overall market downturn, it is inevitable that marginal and less competitive car companies will be eliminated or integrated. Of course, when the market is high, all walks of life are prone to excessive optimism. In the market downturn, all walks of life are prone to excessive pessimism. At present, excessive pessimism in the automotive industry is possible. Economic development is cyclical, in the trough, precisely to maintain a little optimism, and even think ahead to a number of years after the arrival of a new period of growth.

The global market has a strong hierarchical character, and the convergence of one type of market segment on a global scale has the potential to create large-scale demand. Therefore, capable independent brands seeking to develop in the global market should be recognized and encouraged.

Shi Jianhua: When the Chinese auto market is favorable, independent brands have been given the opportunity to develop, and have made great progress and expanded their scale and product lines, etc. When the market is not good, the low-end and middle-end brands will be able to develop in the global market. When the market is not good, low-end products decline faster, indicating that the competitiveness of independent brands of automobiles is not strong enough, the brand value of recognition is not high, but also indicates that some of the independent brands and joint venture brands still have a gap. We need to plumb the depths of the field, lying in wait, and move forward.

China's auto brands are numerous, and there are bound to be some companies that can't stick around. Survivability of the weak to plan early, the joint joint, the cooperation of the cooperation, can transform the transformation as soon as possible, reasonable adjustment of the direction of enterprise development has been reborn.

Already in China's auto market to stand, more efforts to improve their technical level, product competitiveness, market service capabilities, and concentrate on building the brand. I think China's branded cars will have a few or some excellent enterprises to occupy a place in the market competition.

The third question: whether the merger will become the industry's new normal?

Li Donghong: The most effective cooperation between large automobile enterprises that can be seen in the short term is undoubtedly joint purchasing. In a shrinking market, car companies have cut prices to boost sales, how to effectively control costs has become an unusually prominent issue. Joint purchasing helps car companies to reduce procurement costs, improve the bargaining power with parts and components enterprises, *** with the reduction of production costs. In addition, in research and development, production, channels, information and other aspects, car companies can carry out in-depth cooperation.

Chinese car companies and multinational cooperation, the future will inevitably come out of the multinationals out of technology, Chinese companies are responsible for the production and localization of sales of the inherent model, towards *** with the promotion of technological progress, *** with the development of global markets, including China. In addition, the future of cooperation, will inevitably be more in software, big data analysis and after-market services and other areas of in-depth cooperation.

Zeng Zhiling: The automobile industry is an asset-heavy and capital-dependent industry, and during the period of technological revolution, car companies are faced with huge uncertainties in technology routes and government policies, so their investment in R&D carries huge risks. If they make a wrong bet, it is likely to mean tens of billions of dollars of investment will not be returned. As a result, companies are hoping to reduce costs and share risks by joining forces or holding together.

I don't think the Chinese market will see the formation of mega automotive groups through mergers and acquisitions that quickly in the short term. Because as the world's largest auto market, China's market volume of more than 20 million, which is destined to be in a market of this size will be more companies. Previously rumored FAW, Changan, Dongfeng to merge, which is a completely administrative behavior, rather than market behavior, is destined to be a disaster.

Fourth question: whether pure electric vehicles will have real social benefits?

Tsinghua University Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicle Engineering Center Research and Consulting Department Minister Zhang Chengbin: the development and promotion of new energy vehicles in line with the trend of energy electrification, can promote China's demand for electricity, and better use of China's abundant renewable energy, reducing dependence on oil. Different research organizations have conducted studies on the full life cycle emissions of pure electric vehicles, and the low emissions of pure electric vehicles in the operation phase are widely recognized. Research by Tsinghua University professor Wang Hewu shows that even if electricity is supplied entirely by thermal power, the carbon emissions of pure electric vehicles are less than those of fuel vehicles. Analyzed in terms of cost-effectiveness, the price of future pure electric vehicles is conservatively estimated to be on par with traditional fuel vehicles by 2025.

Chen Qingtai, chairman of the China Electric Vehicle Association (C EVA), said electric vehicles have risen to a high level of national strategic development since 2010. 10 years on, the development of electric vehicles in China has proved that the pure electric vehicle of the storage battery technology route is feasible. The transformation of the world's major automobile producers and large automobile groups to electrification is actually a result of China's leadership in the development of electric vehicles.

Ouyang Minggao, Vice Chairman of China Association of 100 Electric Vehicles: At present, the strategic significance of new energy vehicles to promote the new energy revolution has just been recognized, but has not been taken seriously, and the value of new energy vehicles has been greatly underestimated. As new energy vehicles have the dual attributes of transportation and energy devices, once China's new energy vehicle planning is completed, it will promote the new energy revolution, because power electrification, power batteries, fuel cells, etc. itself is an important core technology of the new energy revolution. In addition to photovoltaic, wind power, batteries, fuel cells, hydrogen energy, etc. is also an important component of the new energy system.

The fifth question: is the liberalization of the share ratio "to lead the wolf into the house"?

Fu Yuwu: our own brand and joint venture brands, through years of development, has enough backbone. At the same time to do their own strong, the face of foreign forces we must adhere to their own bottom line, can not easily give up. In addition, we have to have reverse thinking. Foreign companies need the Chinese market, while Chinese companies need international performance. When our enterprises have competitiveness, international brands and Chinese enterprises to cooperate is an inevitable trend, Ningde Times is a good example.

Capital operations similar to Xiaopeng Auto and Azure Auto are still relatively successful. Our traditional car companies, although we have years of accumulated strength experience, but our capital operation, the use of financial tools is not skillful. In the capital market, we have to use technology and capital to cope with future changes.

Responding to the economic downturn, the transformation response, the liberalization of the share ratio and so on, it is the market behavior that brings companies together. Especially our new four transformation, all require our automobile-related enterprises to cross-border, drastically and fundamentally cooperation. 2020, synergy and cooperation will be the theme word of China's automobile market. The current situation provides a very large space of imagination for inter-enterprise cooperation. This includes the formation of mechanisms for both sides to utilize their respective strengths. Chinese car companies is to go through the baptism of the market in order to appear global and internationally recognized brands. This is a necessary path for China's automobile manufacturing industry to go from big to strong.

The sixth question: consumers can no longer "kneeling" transparent service when buying cars?

Shen Jinjun, president of the China Automobile Dealers Association, said the consumer's right in today's era is bound to be bigger and bigger, because the market has come to the buyer's market decided by consumers. For 4S stores, transparent and standardized service allows companies to avoid legal risks, but also allows them to achieve consistency of service, but also to protect the rights and interests of dealers, and reduce the risk of excessive consumer rights.

Passenger car market information association secretary-general Cui Dongshu: Mercedes-Benz incident is reflected in the national standardization of auto finance initiatives to prevent excessive development of auto finance, can effectively solve the interest rate is too high, the fee is not transparent and so on to make consumers pay more costs of irregular behavior, at the same time, the standardization of automobile dealers to play a very good guiding significance of the operation.

In addition, to solve the dealer's profitability problem, in the final analysis, the car manufacturers to effectively solve. Because the automobile manufacturers give dealers too much pressure, resulting in the dealer's main business does not have a reasonable profitability. Automakers should give dealers a better model of profitability and give better support for profitability.

So, if we want to improve the voice of consumers in the car buying process, it should also be mainly driven by national regulations and policies, and I think it needs to be driven by events to fix the loopholes that exist in our laws, better standardize the operating procedures, and to promote the dealers' service processes.

Q7: Can the used car business revitalize domestic new car consumption?

Shen Jinjun: At present, there are many unfavorable factors in the current situation of China's used-car market, first of all, the main business of the "busy, small, weak", which will cause the market's lack of integrity, mixed fish and dragons. In addition, the policy for second-hand car trading has never been completely liberalized, although the second-hand car has been canceled relocation policy, but the main business acquisition of second-hand cars must rely on ID card information, which gives the company between the second-hand car transactions caused great trouble. In addition, if we can change the way of collecting value-added tax, from full value-added tax to differential value-added tax, it will have a positive effect on the domestic second-hand car business entities.

Cui Dongshu: the revitalization of the second-hand car market to promote the rigid demand for consumption and the sustainable development of the car market has a significant role in promoting, but also to promote the automotive industry consumption upgrade has a great pull effect. From the present point of view, to promote the development of the second-hand car market, or from the system and institutional mechanisms to make improvements, especially in the second-hand car tax and temporary property rights and other issues need to be supported by the appropriate policies. At the same time, China to liberalize the pilot export of used cars on the entire used car industry has a huge role in promoting the bulk of used cars to the world market, the large dealer groups and used car financial enterprises have a good role in promoting.

This article comes from the author of the automobile home car family number, does not represent the views of the automobile home position.