To the fall and winter seasons after the country has appeared a number of sporadic outbreaks, although it did not cause large-scale transmission, but still let everyone's heart is very nervous, immediately is the New Year's Day and Spring Festival holiday travel peak, then 2021 year New Year's Day and Spring Festival holiday travel is safe?

Sporadic outbreaks in many places

Time into December since the time, most parts of the country temperatures continue to go down, while China's mainland sporadic outbreaks in many places.

In less than half a month, Shandong Jiaozhou, Chengdu, Sichuan, Manzhouli, Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang Dongning, Suifenhe, Xinjiang Turpan, these six places have appeared native confirmed cases and asymptomatic infected.

Is it safe to go out on New Year's Day and Spring Festival

Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist at the CDC, reminded the public in a media interview a few days ago that the probability of an epidemic occurring again in the winter in a place where there has been an outbreak is greater than in other places. But that doesn't mean that outbreaks won't occur elsewhere, and all places that involve the entry of people and things from outside the country are likely to have outbreaks.

He emphasized that after winter, the vast majority of countries outside the country have seen a significant rise in new coronary pneumonia outbreaks, with the number of infected people and contaminated goods on the rise. For the domestic prevention of importation, prevention of both people and goods, have increased pressure. In this global context, the emergence of sporadic cases in China is a normal phenomenon in the normalization of prevention and control.

And for the risk of epidemic spread during the Spring Festival, a member of the National Health Commission high-level expert group, the CDC epidemiology former Chief Scientist Zeng Guang analysis, said that during this year's National Day, has also encountered large-scale mobility, is considered to have done a stress test, proved that, as long as the prevention and control measures are appropriate, the risk is completely controllable.

But experts emphasized that the situation in the Spring Festival is different, on the one hand, the scale of population movement during the Spring Festival is much larger than the National Day holiday, on the other hand, the lower the temperature in winter, the longer the virus survival time, coupled with the people over the festive season will be visiting friends and relatives, the larger scale of indoor gatherings are also increase the risk of the spread of the new crown epidemic, so the risk of prevention and control of epidemics during the Spring Festival is certainly increased.

Zeng Guang believes that although there is a large flow of people during the Spring Festival, as long as there are no infected people in the crowd, there will be no major outbreaks with a wider range of transmission. From this point of view, it's okay for people to go home during the Spring Festival. But it's still definitely not encouraged to visit each other's homes or gather indoors on a large scale this year for the Spring Festival.

Why did the outbreak happen again?

Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist at the CDC: Generally speaking, the probability of an outbreak occurring again in winter in a place where there has been an outbreak is greater than in other places.

But that's not to say that outbreaks won't happen elsewhere, and all places that involve people and things coming in from outside the country are likely to have outbreaks.

Difficulties in winter prevention and control

Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist at the CDC, said there will be some difficulties in carrying out epidemiological investigations during the cold winter season, especially when temperatures are very low.

There are two main aspects of epidemiologic investigations now: first, face-to-face investigations between people, which are more classic and traditional, asking patients and close contacts where they have been in the past period of time and who they have been in contact with.

The second is that a person's memory may not be so complete that it can clearly remember everything in the past, which requires modern technology, including cell phone scanning and other information that can be recorded about movement trajectories.

So, with particularly low temperatures in the winter, these new technological tools, like cell phone functionality, can be compromised, which may have some impact on epidemiological survey data, especially big data assistance.