According to the available data, Cox? Cars, edmonds, J.D.? Power and ALG/TrueCar predict that in June 2020, measured by the seasonally adjusted annualized sales rate SAAR, it will be about 6.5438+0.3 million vehicles, that is, in terms of monthly sales rate, the annual sales volume of American automobile market will be about 6.5438+0.3 million vehicles, which is lower than that of 6.5438+0.722 million vehicles in June 2065.438+09, but higher than that in May.
Elaine, chief economist of General Motors? Buckberg said in a statement that the US economy is slowly restarting. However, she warned that the road ahead is not smooth because the epidemic will rebound. On June 30, the United States set the worst situation since the outbreak of the epidemic, with more than 48,000 people diagnosed in a single day. According to The New York Times, there are as many as 38 states in the United States, that is, nearly four-fifths of the states in the United States, and the number of confirmed cases has increased.
Car companies fell by more than 30%, and Nissan plummeted.
Edmunds and TrueCar, the auto market research institutions, predict that American auto sales will drop by about 34% in the second quarter, which may be the worst quarter for automakers this year.
Specific to automakers, GM's sales in the second quarter fell by 34% year-on-year. Specific to brands, the overall demand of Chevrolet, GMC, Buick and Cadillac decreased by 34%, 33% and 36% respectively, and by 465 and 438+0%.
As it seeks to replenish its inventory, the company will maintain the operation of most American factories, including all truck and SUV factories, during the traditional two-week summer shutdown. GM said that most of the increased production will be used to supplement the retail channels.
In the second quarter, the sales volume of FCA decreased by 38.7% to 367,086 vehicles, among which the sales volume of various brands decreased by more than 265,438+0%. It is worth noting that about 20% of FCA's new car sales are completed through online sales channels, compared with 1% last year. It can be seen that the COVID-19 epidemic has not only changed the lives of people all over the world, but also changed the ecological outlook of the automobile industry.
Jeff, head of American sales at FCA? Kommor said that sales in May and June were higher than expected, which highlighted the resilience of the US auto consumer market. Small-scale sales began to rebound after bottoming out in April, mainly due to the lifting of the ban on epidemic prevention and control measures, the stability of gasoline prices and the stimulation of low-interest loans. However, the bulk sales to the government and enterprises were cancelled or postponed by FCA.
Last quarter, Toyota's overall sales fell by 34.6%. Compared with the second quarter of last year, Toyota brand sales decreased by 35.6% and Lexus decreased by 26.8%. Among them, the biggest drop was in Mirai, which was driven by fuel cells, and the sales volume in Mirai dropped by as much as 90%.
From April to June, the sales volume of Honda decreased by 27.9%, and the delivery volume of Honda brand and Acura brand decreased by 28. 1% and 26.5% respectively.
Dave, executive vice president of Honda automobile sales in the United States? Gardner said in a statement that sales from April to June were higher than expected, and the pace of recovery accelerated in the second half of this quarter. "Our inventory is a little tight, but our dealers are very flexible and can adapt to one of the biggest challenges in our industry."
In the second quarter, Nissan's car sales plummeted by 49.5%, while Nissan's brand and British finidi's sales dropped by 50% and 44% respectively. However, Nissan said that small-scale sales exceeded expectations because the company continued to reduce the number of leases and focused on building quality and sustainable businesses.
Compared with the second quarter of last year, the sales volume of Hyundai Motor decreased by 23.7% to 65,438+0,465,438+0,722 vehicles. According to ALG/TrueCar, Hyundai was one of only two automakers to cut discounts last month.
Among other automakers, Volkswagen, Mitsubishi and Mazda decreased by 29% and 29% respectively. 58% and 9.6%. Most automakers will report second-quarter results on Wednesday, but Ford plans to release sales data on Thursday.
The recovery has just begun, but the challenges are still severe.
According to ALG/TrueCar, J.D.? Power? /LMC, edmonds and Cox? Auto magazine estimates that the sales of light vehicles in the United States dropped by 24% in June? -? 30%, all major automobile manufacturers showed a downward trend. Compared with June 20 19, the sales days of last month were 25 days less.
Generally speaking, the relatively optimistic parameter in June may be the transaction price of new cars. ALG predicts that the transaction price of new cars in June will be about USD 36,322, which is 3.2% higher than that in June 2065,438+065,438+065,438+07, but 0.2% lower than that of USD 88 in May 2020.
As far as discounts are concerned, J.D.? Power said that the discount in June is expected to reach $4,465,438 +0 1, an increase of $445 compared with June 20 19. In June, the discount for automobiles is expected to increase by 459 USD to 4,03/kloc-0 USD, and the average discount for trucks and SUVs will increase by 407 USD to 4,524 USD. According to ALG data, Detroit Big Three is still one of the biggest discount automakers, but Volkswagen Group and Honda Motor Company saw the biggest increase in discounts in June. (See table below)
Doctor of law? Thomas, president and chief product officer of the company's power data and analysis department? King said that pent-up consumer demand, the government's relaxation of restrictions on economic activities and record discounts helped American car sales rebound. A market like Detroit is one of the areas most affected by the epidemic, and its small sales are catching up with the level of 20 19.
However, the government stimulus measures will expire in the next few months, the additional unemployment benefits will be cut off soon, and the unemployment rate will remain high, which will once again test the resilience of consumers.
Faced with the following challenges, automakers will certainly not sit still. For example, Ford Motor Company launched a loan relief program, in which owners who bought new and used cars through loans from Ford's financial department can choose to return their cars if they lose their jobs within one year. In addition to Ford, many car brands provided different levels of customer support services to car owners during the epidemic, including deferred repayment and special financial terms.
Cox? Automotive's previous research shows that the uncertainty of employment situation is one of the factors that consumers delay car purchase plans. In the first quarter of this year, Ford's light vehicle sales in the United States decreased 12% year-on-year. Among Detroit's Big Three, Ford's sales dropped the most, and even its best-selling F-series pickup truck dropped by 65,438+03%.
On the other hand, as consumers gradually return to dealers, inventory becomes tight, especially popular pickup trucks, crossover vehicles and SUVs, such as Ford Explorer and Ram pickup trucks. Some Honda dealers report that some of their popular models are in short supply, especially Civic Basic Edition, Civic hatchback and Accord Basic Edition. Many dealers expect that the shortage of inventory will affect car sales in July and August.
In addition, in the first half of this year, corporate customers cut costs one after another, and even some enterprises were unable to continue to declare bankruptcy, which affected the mass sales of many automobile manufacturers, including car rental companies, especially Hertz's bankruptcy.
Therefore, in June, the American auto market took a little breath, but the deep downward trend did not slow down in essence, and the pressure on major brands was even greater. If the manufacturer has strong product strength, it may hand over the "unsatisfactory" answer sheet to a certain extent. If we only rely on quick-acting drugs such as discounts, we may not only be unable to resist risks, but also bring a series of negative effects.
Text/Sun Lili
-
Wechat searches for "Car Commune" and "One-sentence Comment" to follow the official account of WeChat, or visit the Daily Auto News Network for more industry information.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.