It is generally believed in the industry that the possibility of short-term RRR reduction is not high, mainly because the economy has support in the second quarter after the amount of social financing in the first quarter, and CPI inflation has upward risks in the second quarter, which also limits the space for the central bank to reduce RRR. Zhao Xijun, deputy dean of the School of Finance and Finance of China Renmin University, said that in the short term, the expected results of some investors in the market for reducing RRR holdings are likely to be "heartless".
In the past month, the central bank has twice rumored to reduce RRR.
"This news is untrue. At present, the central bank has no new policy of lowering the deposit reserve ratio." On the evening of April 23, the Financial Times, a media subordinate to the central bank, voiced the rumors that RRR cut interest rates that day. It is rumored that the central bank plans to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of rural financial institutions, such as some rural commercial banks and rural credit cooperatives, by 1 percentage point from 25th.
Less than a month ago, on March 29th, in the name of "authoritative news from Xinhua News Agency", there was a rumor that "the central bank decided to cut the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points". It is rumored that the implementation date of RRR cut is April 1 day, and the central bank said in Guan Wei that night that this was false news. And sent a letter to the public security organ on this matter, and investigated and dealt with the act of fabricating and publishing false information according to law.
Since the beginning of this year, the central bank has implemented RRR cuts twice, both at 1. The deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions was lowered by 0.5 percentage point on June 5438+1October 15 and June 5438+1October 25, respectively, in order to further support the development of the real economy, optimize the liquidity structure and reduce the financing cost. The market expects a net investment of about 800 billion yuan.
From the end of March to the beginning of April, the central bank did not conduct open market operations for 13 consecutive working days. Zhang Deli, a senior macro researcher at Lianxun Securities, said in an interview that in March this year, the call for RRR cut was high, but since mid-April, the call for the central bank to cut RRR was low.
The rumor of RRR cut comes at the end of another regular session of the National People's Congress. On April 17, the discussion topic of the Standing Committee of the National Committee once again focused on the difficulty and high cost of financing for "small and micro enterprises". The meeting mentioned "implementing a prudent monetary policy and using monetary policy tools flexibly". Huachuang Securities found that after the National People's Congress deployed to reduce financing costs in history, the central bank usually used monetary policy tools to implement the resolutions of the National People's Congress.
The central bank added 267.4 billion "extra spicy powder"
We didn't wait for RRR to cut interest rates, but the central bank's monetary policy tools are still on schedule.
On April 24th, the central bank announced the implementation of directional medium-term lending facility (TMLF) in the second quarter of 20 19, with an operating amount of 267.4 billion yuan and an operating interest rate of 3. 15%, which is lower than that of medium-term lending facility (MLF) 15 basis points. This is the second implementation of TMLF since it was launched in February last year, and it is called "extra spicy powder" by the industry.
At the same time, the central bank introduced in the announcement that TMLF is operated by large commercial banks, joint-stock commercial banks and large city commercial banks that meet the relevant conditions and apply. According to the loan increment of small and micro enterprises and private enterprises in the first quarter of 20 19 of relevant financial institutions and combined with their needs, the operating quota was determined to be 267.4 billion yuan. The operating period is one year, which can be extended twice according to the needs of financial institutions, and the actual service period can reach three years.
"Extra spicy powder" is one of the important tools to support the real economy and reduce the financing cost of small and micro enterprises. Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, said, "One of the important functions of current monetary policy is structural adjustment. In this context, by continuing to produce more than 200 billion' extra spicy powder', on the one hand, financial institutions can further tilt credit funds to private and small and medium-sized enterprises, and the TMLF interest rate is relatively low, which also helps to reduce the financing costs of small and medium-sized enterprises. "
Judging from the performance of the stock market on the 24th, the two markets fluctuated downwards in early trading and turned red in midday. In the banking sector, it once fell by about 0.72% in early trading, and the decline narrowed in the afternoon. At the close, the sector as a whole rose by 0.09%, but compared with other sectors, the increase ranked lower.
Specifically, Ping An Bank and Xi 'an Bank led the gains throughout the day, rising by 2.63% and 0.77% respectively. China Merchants Bank, Guiyang Bank, Sunong Bank and Zhangjiagang Bank 1 1 banking stocks turned red in the afternoon; Shares of seven banks, including China Industrial and Commercial Bank and Qingdao Bank, rose or fell by 0. Industrial Bank, Wuxi Bank and other 12 banking stocks fell, among which Changshu Bank's share price fell by 1.86%, the biggest drop of the day.
Regarding whether the performance of banking stocks is related to the RRR cut, Dong Ximiao, vice president of Chongyang Financial Research Institute of China Renmin University, said that the liquidity between banks is relatively abundant at present. "I don't see what the fluctuation of bank share prices has to do with whether they are downgraded."
■ Ask questions
1 What do you think of two rumors?
Analysis: Short-term RRR reduction probability of transmission signal is low.
Zhang Deli, a senior macro researcher at Lianxun Securities, believes that the recent two RRR interest rate cuts by the central bank are one of the ways in the expected management of the central bank. By dispelling rumors, I hope to send a signal to the market that the probability of RRR cut in the short term is low, thus reversing the strong expectation of the central bank to reduce RRR.
Dong Ximiao analyzed that many monetary policies mainly affect market expectations, so institutions like the Federal Reserve pay great attention to communication with the market. Incorrect information like rumors will affect the effect of communication with the market, so it is necessary to crack down. However, there is a difference between rumors and academic research predictions. Generally, there are different views on the trend of market and policy, which should be allowed to exist.
Zhao Xijun, deputy dean of the School of Finance and Finance of China Renmin University, said that investors are eager for the central bank to take action to continue to push the market up, but the purpose of the central bank is not to push the market up by relaxing policies. Monetary policy is very clear, but it is necessary to dredge the channels of money supply and let the released liquidity be more directed to the real economy than the stock market.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, responded to the Beijing News reporter that the current macroeconomic situation at home and abroad is complex and changeable, social and psychological expectations are at a sensitive stage, and financial markets are easily disturbed by some false rumors. Clear policy signals, including timely rumors, are the key to stabilizing market expectations. Recently, the central bank cracked down on the rumors of RRR interest rate cuts twice, indicating that such rumors may seriously interfere with the implementation of the central bank's monetary policy and need to be clarified and dealt with seriously in time; On the other hand, it also reflects the attitude of the regulatory authorities to attach importance to market communication and actively implement expected management.
Is it necessary to lower the standard at present?
Analysis: RRR has room for downward adjustment, and the short-term necessity is not high.
Regarding whether there is a need to reduce RRR at present, respondents generally believe that there is room for reducing RRR, but it is not necessary to reduce RRR in the short term.
Dong Ximiao analyzed that there is room and possibility for RRR reduction now. From a macro perspective, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry is still in a downward trend, and the pressure of economic growth is greater in the second half of the year. RRR's interest rate cut will help stabilize market confidence. From the perspective of base money supply, it may still be a better choice for the central bank to hedge the base money gap by reducing RRR. From the specific operation, in the second quarter, * * * has1185.5 billion yuan of medium-term loan facility (MLF) due, which may be replaced by RRR cut. In addition, the interest rate in the money market has risen recently, and the short-term funds are tightening. Therefore, after the release of economic data in the first quarter, the central bank may decide whether to reduce RRR in the middle and late April. It is predicted that in 20 19, the central bank will still reduce RRR, continue to ensure a reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and achieve a reasonable increase in the scale of monetary credit and social financing.
However, he also stressed that there are certain reasons for not reducing RRR. The financial data in March showed that the economy was picking up, and China's economic problems were still structural problems, which could not be solved by reducing RRR. Looking forward to the second quarter and even the future, we should not always focus on reducing RRR, but should pay more attention to the policy framework for small and medium-sized banks to implement lower deposit reserve ratio, the interest rate marketization reform and the unblocking of monetary policy transmission mechanism. These problems are more important than reducing RRR.
In view of several sets of economic data recently disclosed, Zhang Deli also thinks that it is unnecessary to cut interest rates by RRR in the short term, mainly because the economy has support in the second quarter after social financing in the first quarter. In addition, there is an upward risk of CPI inflation in the second quarter, which also limits the space for the central bank to reduce RRR.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, also said that the macroeconomic data in the first quarter of this year exceeded expectations in an all-round way, which also led to the expected decline in RRR interest rate cuts and RRR cuts in the short term. In addition, seeing the rebound of housing prices in some cities after real estate regulation and control, coupled with the recent return of the "pig cycle", especially the inflationary pressure caused by the increase in pig prices in the second half of the year, all make monetary policy cautious about expectations, so the probability of short-term RRR reduction has declined.
3 How to treat the trend of monetary policy?
Analysis: Marginal tightening may occur in the second quarter, and counter-cyclical adjustment will be adhered to in the future.
Regarding the expectation of future monetary policy, Dong Ximiao believes that the future monetary policy will not be suddenly tightened, the market has been stable and loose, and it is unlikely that monetary policy will be relaxed again. It will only be fine-tuned according to the actual situation, and there will be no major changes in the whole. In short, the general tone of the central bank's adherence to prudent monetary policy and countercyclical adjustment has not changed. For example, today, the central bank operates TMLF to hedge the expiration of MLF and release liquidity.
Zhang Deli believes that monetary policy may be slightly tightened in the second quarter. Judging from the recent meeting of the Politburo, the goal of monetary policy is shifting from short-term steady growth to long-term risk prevention, and the most relaxed time of monetary policy has passed. The trend of monetary policy in the second half of the year depends on economic fundamentals and CPI inflation in the second quarter.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, said that short-term interest rates have risen rapidly since April, and the introduction of reverse repurchase helps to keep short-term interest rates stable. Under the prudent monetary policy, the combination of long and short positions is the embodiment of maintaining sufficient liquidity and stable interest rate market.
Wang Qing told reporters that in the context of the recent recovery of economic and financial data, the next step will be to adjust the central bank's monetary policy in a loose direction, basically excluding the possibility of implementing interest rate reduction measures such as lowering the general RRR or even lowering the open market operating rate in the second quarter. Considering that the global economic slowdown is difficult to reverse this year, the domestic economy is still facing some downward pressure. In the future, the central bank will continue to adhere to countercyclical adjustment, the general direction of fine-tuning monetary policy in the loose direction will continue, and the characteristics of camera choice will become more prominent.
(Source: Beijing News)