Judging from the changes in the sales volume and amount of commercial housing in China, the sales volume in May-June,11-65438+February was relatively good, while the sales volume in March-April and July-August was relatively poor. The fluctuation degree of sales volume is consistent with the fluctuation degree of amount, indicating that the scale of market sales is mainly affected by sales volume. In 20021year, China's real estate industry stepped up its regulation and control, restraining the market from the sales end, financing end and supply end, and the debt risks accumulated by some enterprises for many years broke out, which led to the overall adjustment of the industry. Since 2022, affected by the COVID-19 outbreak in China and the shrinking market confidence, the sales volume of commercial housing has experienced a negative growth month-on-month, and will rebound in May 2022. In May, the sales volume increased by 23.78% and the sales volume increased by 26.37%. Although the sales volume and selling price in May 2022 are still far less than the same period, they have stopped falling, and the turning point of industry development may appear.
Note: National Bureau of Statistics doesn't count the data of 65438+ 10 every year, so it lacks the month-on-month data of 1-2.
Judging from the changes in the sales volume and amount of office buildings in China, the fluctuation of sales volume is less than that of the amount, indicating that the price of office buildings has changed greatly in recent years. Comparatively speaking, the fluctuation degree of office products is greater than that of commercial housing, reflecting the poor stability of office product sales. Since 2022, there has also been a negative growth in office products. In May 2022, the sales volume of office products increased by 62.06% month on month, and the sales amount increased by 122. 15% month on month. Judging from the year-on-year data, the sales volume and sales amount of office products increased significantly in May, and office products may take the lead in getting out of the downturn.
Note: National Bureau of Statistics doesn't count the data of 65438+ 10 every year, so it lacks the month-on-month data of 1-2.
-The incremental data of household loans has improved.
Household loans are also an important indicator reflecting the transaction heat in the real estate market. China's social financing indicators include RMB loans, foreign currency loans, corporate bonds and government bonds. The "household loan" in RMB loan is a monitoring index of the increment of household housing loan, which can reflect the market transaction heat from the capital level.
Judging from the increment of social financing scale in China, the increment of 202 1 is relatively stable, but it has fluctuated greatly since 2022. In May 2022, social financing increased, and RMB loans increased simultaneously, reaching 1.82 trillion in May.
In terms of RMB loans by industry, the incremental data of household loans improved in May. In the first quarter of 2022, household loans increased by 1.26 trillion yuan; In April, household loans decreased by 21700 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 745.3 billion yuan, reflecting that residents repaid loans in advance in April and the market enthusiasm shrank; In May, household loans increased by 288.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 334.4 billion yuan, a substantial increase from the previous month, indicating that the market enthusiasm has rebounded.
-The promotion of sales in first-tier cities still needs to wait and see.
By observing the monthly sales area of commercial housing in China's first tier cities from 2020 to 2022, the transaction volume trends of the four cities are relatively consistent. Since 2022, sales in first-tier cities have shown a downward trend, and the current sales area is at a historical low. In May 2022, Guangzhou achieved sales of 777,654,38+0,000 square meters, an increase of over 65,438+0,000% from the previous month. Since the improvement of epidemic control in Shanghai, the sales volume of commercial housing has rebounded slightly; Affected by the recurrence of the epidemic, Beijing's sales data still showed a downward trend; Sales data in Shenzhen also continued to decline.
-Sales in some new first-tier cities picked up.
In terms of new first-tier cities, Chengdu's sales volume has always been the first, but the sales data fluctuates greatly. On the whole, the sales volume of new first-tier cities has been at a historical low since 2022, but after entering May, the sales area of Qingdao, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Nanjing and other cities has increased, and the warming signal has initially appeared.
According to CRIC monitoring data, in the first 20 days of June 2022, the sales area of most new first-tier cities increased sharply, with Chengdu, Qingdao, Suzhou, Hangzhou and Nanjing changing by 32%, 99%, 47%, 40% and-1% respectively.
Note: The data were compiled by Foresight in combination with the national database, and the National Bureau of Statistics did not disclose the monthly data of some cities, the same below.
-sales in some second-and third-tier cities rebounded significantly.
In terms of 23 new cities, since March 2022, the sales data of Xiamen, Fuzhou, Wuxi, Huizhou and other cities have continued to climb, with obvious recovery, but the overall sales volume is still at a low level.
According to CRIC monitoring data, in the first 20 days of June 2022, the overall sales area of second-and third-tier cities continued to increase slightly from the previous month. Although it was still far less than the same period last year, the recovery momentum was good.
For more research and analysis on this industry, please refer to the Analysis Report on Market Demand Forecast and Investment Strategic Planning of China Real Estate Industry by Forward-looking Industry Research Institute.