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The central bank announced interest rate cuts: it decided to lower the benchmark interest rates of RMB loans and deposits of financial institutions from February 20 15 1 day. The benchmark interest rate for one-year loans of financial institutions was lowered by 0.4 percentage points to 5.2%; The benchmark interest rate for one-year deposits was lowered by 0.25 percentage point to 2.50%. At the same time, combined with the interest rate marketization reform, the upper limit of the floating range of deposit interest rate of financial institutions was adjusted from 1. 1 times of the benchmark deposit interest rate to 1.0 times.
Monetary policy may be relaxed due to real estate.
The real estate market is becoming an important reference factor for the central bank to adjust its monetary policy. "If the real estate decline exceeds expectations, how should we hedge?" Zhu Baoliang, chief economist of the Economic Forecasting Department of the State Information Center, once said at the "China 20 14 Annual Meeting" that "since the real estate price is falling, monetary policy can be moderately relaxed, which means that the real interest rate in China will not rise again, and monetary policy may be wider".
In 20 14, the real estate market in China stepped down from the altar, and almost all the year round, the volume and price fell together, which triggered several rounds of rescue from the local government to the central level, such as canceling the purchase restriction, loosening the loan restriction and the new policy of provident fund. Affected by this, the annual interest rate of the mortgage market in 20 14 years has gone out of the "parabolic" trend. In the first half of the year, the mortgage policy continued to tighten, and interest rates continued to rise, reaching a peak in the middle of the year. In the second half of the year, influenced by the regulatory policy, the mortgage policy was more relaxed, and with the intervention of the central bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission, banks began to change their attitude of reluctance to lend, and interest rates fell again and again.
Recently, China Mortgage Market Report 20 14, a financial search platform of Rong 360, predicted that in the first half of 20 15, banks will probably continue the loose mortgage policy at the end of 20 14, which is different from the trend of tightening before loosening. From the second half of the year, the property market is expected to improve, and the central support policy may be tightened accordingly. Under the influence of factors such as the gradual exhaustion of mortgage quota and the central bank's interest rate cut squeezing profit margin, banks may gradually tighten mortgage. But overall, the 20 15 mortgage policy will show a trend of loosening first and then tightening.
Industry insiders predict that the central bank is expected to cut interest rates 2-3 times in 20 15.
For the monetary policy in 20 15 years, industry insiders predict that the central bank is expected to cut interest rates 2-3 times, and the mortgage environment in 20 15 years will be mainly loose. Low interest rates will stimulate more potential buyers to enter the market, thus prompting the property market in some hot cities to pick up faster.
However, regarding the direction of future monetary policy regulation, Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, judged that the drastic relaxation of monetary policy is definitely inconsistent with the current overall demand, because although the economy has downward pressure, it does not meet the requirements of the whole economy.