Sub-prime mortgage crisis: The rising interest rate leads to an increase in repayment pressure. Many users with bad credit feel that the repayment pressure is high and there is the possibility of default, which has an impact on the recovery of bank loans.

The "subprime mortgage crisis" in the United States began to appear gradually in the spring of 2006. The American subprime mortgage market usually adopts a combination of fixed interest rate and floating interest rate, that is, buyers repay their loans at a fixed interest rate in the first few years after buying a house, and then at a floating interest rate. In the five years before 2006, due to the continuous prosperity of the US housing market and the low interest rates in previous years, the US subprime mortgage market developed rapidly. With the cooling of American housing market, especially the increase of short-term interest rate, the repayment rate of subprime mortgage has also risen sharply, and the repayment burden of buyers has greatly increased. At the same time, the continuous cooling of the housing market also makes it difficult for buyers to sell their houses or refinance through mortgaged houses. This situation directly leads to a large number of borrowers with subprime mortgage loans can not repay on time, which in turn leads to "subprime mortgage crisis".

2. The outbreak of subprime mortgage crisis

On February 3, 2007, 13, New Century Finance issued a profit warning for the fourth quarter of 2006.

HSBC Holdings increased its bad debt reserve by USD 65,438.8+USD 80 million for its subprime mortgage business in the United States.

Facing the debt of $654.38+07.4 billion from Wall Street, New Century Financial Corp, the second largest subprime mortgage company in the United States, announced on April 2 that it filed for bankruptcy protection and laid off 54% of its employees.

On August 2nd, Societe Generale announced a profit warning, and later estimated a loss of 8.2 billion euros, because its Rhineland Fund with a scale of 654.38+0.27 billion euros and the bank itself participated in the US real estate subprime mortgage market a little, resulting in huge losses. The Bundesbank convened banks from all over the world to discuss a package plan to save the German Industrial Bank.

On August 6th, American Mortgage Investment Corporation, the largest mortgage institution in the United States, formally filed for bankruptcy protection with the court, becoming another large mortgage institution in the United States after New Century Finance Corporation.

On August 8, Bear Stearns, the fifth largest investment bank in the United States, announced that its two funds had closed down, which was also due to the subprime mortgage crisis.

On August 9th, BNP Paribas, France's largest bank, announced the freezing of its three funds, which also suffered huge losses due to their investment in American subprime bonds. This move led to a sharp drop in European stock markets.

13 In August, Mizuho Group, the parent company of Mizuho Bank, Japan's second largest bank, announced that the US subprime mortgage-related losses were 600 million yen. Japanese and Korean banks suffered losses due to the US subprime mortgage crisis. According to the estimation of UBS Securities Japan, the nine major banks in Japan hold more than one trillion yen of US subprime mortgage-backed securities. In addition, five Korean banks, including Woori, invested 565 million US dollars in CDO. Investors are worried that the subprime mortgage problem in the United States will have a strong impact on the global financial market. However, Japanese analysts are convinced that most of collateralized debt obligation invested by Japanese banks have the highest credit rating, and the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis is limited.

Later, Florescence Group also announced that the losses caused by subprime loans in July reached 700 million US dollars, but for a financial group with an annual profit of 20 billion US dollars, this is only a small amount.

3. The development of subprime mortgage crisis

In April 2007, New Century Finance, the second largest subprime lender in the United States, filed for bankruptcy protection, which became the largest bankruptcy case of mortgage lenders in the downturn of American real estate industry.

In June, two funds owned by Bear Stearns, the fifth largest investment bank in the United States, suffered losses due to their involvement in the subprime mortgage bond market.

In July, Standard & Poor's and Moody's downgraded the credit ratings of 665,438+02 mortgage bonds and 399 mortgage bonds respectively.

In August, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the Australian Central Bank injected funds into the market to prevent the US subprime mortgage market crisis from causing serious financial market turmoil.

In September, Northrock Bank, the fifth largest mortgage lending institution in the UK, suffered a run-on tide due to the financing difficulties caused by the US subprime mortgage crisis.

In June+10, 5438, Merrill Lynch reported that it suffered about $8 billion in losses related to subprime loans in the third quarter. Merrill Lynch CEO Stan O 'Neill subsequently resigned.

165438+ 10 In June, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, a sovereign fund of the United Arab Emirates, will invest 7.5 billion US dollars to acquire 4.9% shares of Citigroup, which was hit hard by the subprime mortgage incident.

In February 65438, the U.S. Treasury Department said that the U.S. government had reached an agreement with mortgage agencies to freeze some mortgage interest rates, and it was expected that the "initial" interest rates of more than 2 million borrowers would be frozen for five years.

In February 65438, the central banks of the United States, Europe, Britain, Canada and Switzerland announced that they would jointly inject capital into the short-term lending market to ease the global credit crunch.

4. The impact of the subprime mortgage crisis

How wide will the impact of the US "subprime mortgage crisis" be? This is a highly concerned issue in the world economic and financial circles. Judging from its direct impact, many low-income property buyers bear the brunt. Unable to repay the loan, they will face the dilemma that their houses will be repossessed by the bank. Secondly, in the future, more subprime mortgage institutions will suffer serious losses because they can't recover their loans, and even be forced to apply for bankruptcy protection. Finally, many investment funds in the United States and Europe will also be hit hard because they have bought a large number of securities investment products derived from subprime mortgages.

This crisis has undoubtedly brought a lot of enlightenment to the domestic financial industry. In terms of financial innovation, mortgage market development and financial supervision, since the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, the pain of subprime mortgage can not be underestimated in the United States and even the world, no matter from the fluctuation of the global capital market or the changes of the real economy in the United States. For China, this storm has sounded the alarm for us to be prepared for danger in times of peace.

The banking industry bears the brunt of the US subprime mortgage crisis. Paying attention to the hidden risks behind housing mortgage loans is a problem that commercial banks in China should pay special attention to at present. In the period of the overall rise of the real estate market, housing mortgage loan is a high-quality asset of commercial banks, with relatively high loan yield and low default rate. In case of default, you can get compensation by auctioning the mortgaged property. At present, the real estate mortgage loan occupies a considerable proportion in the assets of China Commercial Bank, and it is also one of the main sources of loan income. According to the New Basel Capital Accord, the risk provision made by commercial banks for real estate mortgage loans is relatively low. However, once the real estate market price generally drops and the mortgage interest rate rises, the default rate of buyers will rise sharply, and the real estate value after auction may be lower than the total principal and interest of mortgage loans or even the principal, which will lead to a sharp rise in the bad debt rate of commercial banks and have an impact on their profitability and capital adequacy ratio. However, it is unlikely that the overall price of China real estate market will drop in the near future. However, in the long run, the risk of mortgage loans issued by the banking system cannot be ignored. At this stage, strict loan conditions and loan review system must be implemented.

In fact, the source of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is that American real estate financial institutions relaxed the loan conditions during the market boom and launched loan products that were loose before they tightened. China commercial banks should pay full attention to the lessons of American subprime mortgage crisis. First, strictly implement the down payment policy, moderately increase the down payment ratio of loans, and put an end to the phenomenon of zero down payment; Second, strict pre-lending credit review should be adopted to avoid false mortgage.

Before the subprime mortgage crisis broke out, the American economy had been running on the platform of high growth rate, low inflation rate and low unemployment rate for more than five years, and the topic of "high fever" in the American housing market also lasted for several years. Before the real estate market cooled down, China and the United States had some similarities.

The biggest warning of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is to be alert to the impact of macro-control policies formulated in response to the economic cycle on specific markets. The root cause of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is the decline of the real estate market caused by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. At present, China is facing the situation of accelerating inflation. If the central bank takes measures to substantially increase the interest rate of RMB loans to curb inflationary pressure, it should be alert to two effects: first, the impact of loan tightening on real estate development enterprises may lead to the break of developers' funds; Second, the increasing repayment pressure of mortgage applicants may lead to an increase in mortgage default rate. These two influences will eventually converge on the commercial banking system, leading to an increase in the non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks and a decrease in the value of real estate as collateral, which will ultimately affect the profitability and even viability of commercial banks.

People need to know the difference between the economic cycle and the housing market cycle between China and the United States. The United States is a country with a long history of market economy under the global system, with strong periodicity, and is currently in the late stage of this economic cycle.

China, on the other hand, has not experienced a complete economic cycle. Even though the reform and opening up has only been 30 years, it was only 1992 and 1993 that the market economy was put forward. At present, the key words of China's economy are imbalance between supply and demand and large demand for fixed investment. This is the key point that distinguishes the American economy from the cycle close to 10. In addition, the cycle of the Chinese and American housing markets is also different. After the implementation of housing reform in China, there was no housing market for many years before, and the demand soared. Although the housing market in China is also driven by speculative factors, the most important reason is the large demand and limited supply. In addition, the government has room to regulate the real estate market in China.

The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has also inspired China's macro-control. There are three main aspects: first, asset prices need to be included in the monitoring object of the central bank's monetary policy. Because once the asset price finally affects the total demand or supply through wealth effect or other channels, it will have an impact on the inflation rate. Even if the central bank implements the inflation targeting system, it should take the fluctuation of asset prices as an important reference for formulating monetary policy; Second, when carrying out macro-control, we should comprehensively consider the possible negative effects of regulatory policies. For example, the continuous interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve may not pay enough attention to the pressure of the real estate market. Third, the government should not easily provide relief for the crisis. Crisis is a punishment for blind investment and blind diversification. If the government provides relief for this kind of behavior, it will lead to the breeding of moral hazard. The joint capital injection by the central banks of developed countries in the market may give birth to the next bubble.