Financial institutions compete for a "good start" in the first quarter every year, and this year's situation may be different from the past.
Under the background of "L-shaped" trend of macro-economy, persistent pressure on non-performing assets, and lower interest margin of banks, bank loans to the public have been shrinking in recent years. However, since 20 16, personal housing mortgage loans have soared, and half of the new loans of some banks come from this.
Since 20 16, 10, many cities across the country have implemented the policy of restricting real estate purchases and loans, and the mortgages that account for half of the bank's new credit have been "frozen" instantly.
In this case, how to allocate the credit assets of 20 17 bank and where to invest the new credit have become difficult problems for bank governors.
2 1 Century Business Herald The reporter investigated a number of commercial banks and learned about their credit plans. Some banks have shifted the focus of credit supply to consumer credit and small and micro enterprise loans, and continue to look for structural opportunities for mortgage loans. However, small and medium-sized banks with high capital cost on the debt side have to be cautious about the credit supply of 20 17 to avoid the inversion of capital cost and credit interest rate.
The credit system turns to full-caliber process management
"Our credit system was formulated during the economic upswing. Now that the economy is in a downturn, some systems need to be adjusted and changed." A state-owned bank executive pointed out.
His bank's net interest rate for 20 16 years was 2. 18%, which was 3BP lower than the previous year. Every drop in 1BP will reduce the profit by 2 billion yuan, and there is great pressure to narrow the spread. At the same time, the cost of bank liabilities has increased (time deposits have increased 1.3%, and demand has also increased); The return on loan assets declined.
Therefore, the bank has changed the previous incremental loan management, that is, increasing the credit by 8,000 to 1 trillion yuan per year, to full-scale flow management, especially focusing on pricing management, including deposit pricing and loan pricing.
"The interest rate pricing of domestic banks is relatively weak and needs to be strengthened. In addition, it is necessary to improve the income from capital operation and further stabilize the income from assets. " The above executives said.
He said that the main risks of loans are concentrated in industries such as steel and coal mines. Among them, the production field is in good condition, but the trade (steel trade, coal trade) field is very risky, so the loan policy has been adjusted accordingly, and the compression continues to be compressed. According to the requirements of the country, the excess capacity is kept under pressure. On the whole, the loan situation of central enterprises is good, while that of local enterprises is relatively poor.
Plus Xiaowei, consumer finance
Regarding the credit situation in 20 16 years, a person from a listed stock bank in Beijing said that from the first three quarters, the bank's mortgage accounted for a relatively high proportion, and the mortgage growth slowed down in the fourth quarter, but the scale did not decrease significantly.
He said that from the perspective of loan pricing, mortgage loans are required to be no less than 8.5 fold of the benchmark interest rate, which is slightly lower than the profit of consumer credit and operating loans, but mortgage loans are safer and are the loans with the best asset quality; Small and micro loans are relatively stable in the current environment, and personal consumption and commercial loan credit have slowed down slightly.
The reporter of 265438+20th Century Business Herald learned that the crazy growth of mortgage in 20 17 was unsustainable, and consumer finance and small and micro enterprises became one of the main investment of bank credit.
"In the retail business, consumer credit is a relatively clear direction; There are still structural opportunities for mortgages, and then see if small and micro loans can make a breakthrough. " The person in charge of the retail bank of a listed stock bank in South China told the reporter of 2 1 Century Business Herald.
However, due to the policy of restricting real estate purchases and loans, it is difficult for 20 17 mortgage reduction to be hedged by other credit channels.
"The main reason is that mortgage loans are declining. The total amount of retail loans in the first half of 20 17 may not be as good as last year, but the surge in mortgage loans last year was abnormal. " The person in charge of the aforementioned retail bank said.
Regarding the reasons for strengthening microfinance, the person in charge of the aforementioned retail bank said: "First, there is no other choice (credit supply); Second, seriously study the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference. Small and micro enterprises have a high correlation with the employment of the real economy and will definitely develop in the future. "
A banking analyst in Beijing said that the 20 17 mortgage is limited. According to the experience of 20 16, 40% of the new loans of joint-stock banks are mortgages. If the mortgage falls sharply under the real estate loan restriction, it is estimated that the focus of infrastructure and fixed assets investment with high credit safety margin can not fill the vacancy left by the mortgage. "So the increase of 20 17 will rob two directions-Xiao Wei and consumer finance. Although Xiao Wei has a high bad debt rate, the interest rate is also high. "
"Small and micro loans actually have personal family credit support and high interest rates, but the disadvantage is that the cost is high and it is a last resort. But now is the peak of the inventory cycle. If the economy continues to decline in the future, the risk to the public is not small, and banks dare not easily put in loans for manufacturing and business. " The aforementioned banking analyst said.
City commercial banks are wary of upside-down capital costs.
The reporter of 265438+20th Century Business Herald learned exclusively that a listed city commercial bank in East China required to implement the credit plan for 20 17 as usual, but was cautious about the new credit plan for 20 17.
"The direction of the 20 17 interest rate center is unclear, and the bank's capital cost and interest rate level are not easy to grasp. If credit is rashly put in, it will easily lead to the situation that the future capital cost and interest rate are' upside down'. " A person from East China City Commercial Bank said.
"The time deposit cost of many small and medium-sized banks is around 3.9%, and the loan yield is close to 7%. Due to the high cost of the debt side, I am even more afraid of pricing errors. " The aforementioned banking analysts believe that.
Generally speaking, commercial banks tend to increase credit supply in the first quarter of each year to obtain annual interest income. The credit supply rhythm in four quarters is usually 4: 3: 2:1(after 2010, the bank credit supply rhythm is generally 3: 3: 2: 2).
In particular, small and medium-sized banks, such as stock banks and city commercial banks, will take advantage of the late window period of the annual credit meeting of big banks to increase credit supply before the Spring Festival and form peak-to-peak competition. Usually stock banks, city commercial banks, etc. Make a new year's bank-wide credit policy at 1 every year. State-owned banks are a little late, often after the Spring Festival.
However, this credit situation may not be sustainable at 20 17.
"For small and medium-sized banks that rely more on government relations, do a good job in political and banking relations and do a good job in PPP and other businesses; However, market-oriented commercial banks must take advantage of their small scale and flexible strategies to quickly reverse the situation. " The aforementioned city commercial bank said.
Industrial investment has become the asset allocation direction of some banks. The reporter of 265438+20th Century Business Herald learned exclusively that a listed joint-stock bank in South China has listed the cultural tourism industry as one of the asset allocation directions in 20 17, and plans to cooperate with tourist attractions in terms of tickets and tourist routes.
(The above answers were published on 20 17-0 1-20. Please refer to the actual purchase policy. )
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