2. Establish and improve the credit risk prevention index system.
(1) Using the statistical data of enterprises on these indicators, through the combination of quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis, comprehensively evaluate the situation of enterprises, and through the monitoring of enterprises, give early warning to the credit activities of commercial banks. This index system usually includes the following aspects:
(1) enterprise solvency index. Current ratio, also known as working capital ratio, is the ratio of current assets to current liabilities of enterprises. Quick ratio, also known as acid test ratio, is the ratio of quick assets to current liabilities. Asset-liability ratio refers to the ratio of total liabilities to total net assets.
(2) enterprise profitability indicators. Return on assets, also known as return on investment. It is used to measure the ability of an enterprise to effectively use all assets. Its calculation formula is: return on assets = net profit after tax/(total assets-intangible assets)
Sales profit rate refers to the ratio of after-tax profit to sales revenue.
(3) Enterprise operational capability index. Inventory turnover refers to the ratio of cost of goods sold to average inventory. In which, average inventory = (beginning inventory+ending inventory) /2.
Accounts receivable turnover rate, also known as collection rate, refers to the ratio of net credit sales to average accounts receivable.
(2) Comprehensive analysis of credit indicators to determine the weight and grade of credit risk. Identifying early warning signals timely and effectively, analyzing various credit early warning indicators and identifying early warning signals are the important contents and key links in building a credit risk system. Commonly used analysis methods include comparative analysis, trend analysis, ratio analysis and so on. The credit risk is classified, and the weighted average of individual indicators is scored. By calculating the comprehensive risk index of the target layer, the overall situation and early warning situation of customer credit risk can be reflected. The calculation formula is as follows
According to the risk index of the early warning model, the credit risk level and early warning status of customers can be set to level 5. The pairs of customer credit risk index, risk level and early warning status are shown in Table 2.
In the table, not only the overall risk and early warning status of customer credit risk can be obtained, but also their respective risks and early warning status can be determined according to the risk index of standard risk indicators.
Therefore, commercial banks should focus on cultivating talents with expertise in early warning index system, computer technology, financial management and risk analysis. And use their rich experience and effective analysis methods to summarize and analyze credit risks and find early warning signals in time. Through the identification of early warning signals, it is helpful to find and predict the existing problems and development trends of loans, and determine the possible degree of full repayment of loans on schedule. For example, in 2007, Jinlong applied for a huge loan from ICBC to purchase raw materials. At the beginning of 2008, ICBC found that the company's financial situation was poor and the utilization rate of funds was unscientific, and stopped the implementation of loan projects in time. Later, Jinlong Group closed down due to management problems, and ICBC took timely measures to avoid huge losses. It can be seen that bank managers should always pay attention to and grasp, objectively and calmly judge and analyze early warning signals, in order to effectively prevent credit risks.
3. Establish an effective risk assessment system according to the actual situation.
Risk assessment refers to the analysis and evaluation of the risk situation in the process of credit, with the purpose of clarifying the risk management and taking effective credit control management measures to prevent or reduce risks. There are qualitative and quantitative methods to evaluate bank credit risk. Qualitative analysis can use some commonly used international or domestic bank risk index systems to evaluate it. For example, the Basel Accord clearly stipulates that the capital adequacy ratio of commercial banks should be measured by the ratio of capital to risk-weighted total assets, not less than 8%. Quantitative analysis models are widely used, such as portfolio risk analysis and income analysis models in bank credit risk management. Quantitative analysis can provide scientific and accurate data analysis.
In the process of credit risk assessment, in addition to bank credit experts, internal and external personnel such as business management experts, financial experts, and financial experts of securities companies should be invited to comprehensively assess the loan risk, and regularly inspect the loan enterprises to help customers find some problems in business management and put forward reasonable suggestions to solve them, so as to effectively curb loan risks and nip in the bud.
4. Establish a rapid early warning and rectification mechanism and improve the early warning decision-making system.
Judging from the situation in China, it is a weak link in the supervision of commercial banks to find and deal with credit risks in advance. Especially in terms of timely disposal, many times due to the constraints of funds and policies, effective measures cannot be taken, which makes the already serious problems difficult to solve for a long time. In recent years, the collapse or bankruptcy of some financial institutions such as China Bank Trust Company, Guangdong State Investment Company and Southern Securities Company has eloquently proved this point. Establish and improve the rapid early warning and rectification mechanism with capital adequacy ratio as the main line, divide credit into several situations according to the level of credit adequacy ratio, and accordingly the regulatory authorities take different preventive regulatory measures to control the credit risk of banks. For example, according to the solvency, operating ability and profitability of credit customers, it is divided into five grades: good credit, average credit, slightly dangerous credit, moderately dangerous credit and seriously threatened credit. Take different regulatory measures according to different credit situations. When the comprehensive credit rating is micro-risk, the treatment scheme must be determined within 60 days and input into the early warning system.
In short, by building a risk early warning system, we can dynamically monitor and analyze the relevant indicators, business activities and comprehensive risk trends of commercial banks, analyze and find potential risks, effectively prevent credit risks, improve the operating efficiency of commercial banks in China, and ensure the healthy, rapid and sustainable development of the national economy.