Lao Chen used to drive a two-wheeled electric car, but now he has changed to a four-wheeled one. He turns on warm air in winter and can keep out the rain in summer. "Four wheels will do." He is in his fifties and runs his own breakfast shop. This car is too expensive for him to buy. On second thought, a 10,000-yuan low-speed electric car is the best. After paying the full amount, he didn't need a license plate and driver's license, and drove his wife and daughter home directly.
Low-speed electric vehicles with a price of 65,438+0,000-30,000 are similar in appearance to cars, but the cruising range is shorter and the driving speed is slower than cars, so they are becoming popular. In the hutongs of Beijing, in the streets of small towns and in the alleys of villages and towns, there are "Le Laotou" figures. Old people use it to pick up their children, and housewives drive it to buy food.
Under the premise of no subsidy, low-speed electric vehicles are completely market-oriented, reaching the scale of annual sales of one million, even exceeding the new energy vehicles strongly supported by national policies. According to the price of1-30,000 yuan per vehicle, this is an industry with an output value of 100 billion yuan and has become a pillar industry in some cities. Supporters believe that low-speed electric vehicles are typical products of market-oriented supply-side reform; Opponents believe that this is an illegal and abnormal development with the connivance of local governments.
Low price is the root of the annual sales of low-speed electric vehicles, but it is also the original sin of worrying about safety and being questioned. "To tell the truth, we want to ban it completely, because this kind of vehicle really brings great difficulties and dangers to traffic safety and order management." In 20 16, Li Wei, then vice minister of public security, publicly stated that from the perspective of public safety, the fewer low-speed electric vehicles, the better.
With the national regulatory thinking of "upgrading a batch, standardizing a batch and eliminating a batch" in recent years, low-speed electric vehicles are at the crossroads of industry reform: the direction of "upgrading a batch" to automobile manufacturing is clear, and some head enterprises are undergoing upward transformation, but this road is doomed to be difficult; There is no basis for "standardizing a batch". The national standard has not yet been issued, and a number of small and medium-sized enterprises choose to return to three or two rounds, or sell existing low-speed electric vehicles to towns and villages that are more difficult to supervise; "Eliminating a batch" will lead to the direct withdrawal of small enterprises.
Practitioners are looking forward to the early introduction of the national standard for low-speed electric vehicles that have been difficult to produce for several years, giving their products a statement, instead of being shouted by traffic police everywhere, and selling cars is in jeopardy. "The country does not admit that what products we launch are entertaining ourselves, and we always feel fearful. This is not a long-term job. Maybe after the new national standard comes out tomorrow, this industry will be gone. " Chen Fang, a low-speed electric vehicle practitioner for ten years, told a traveler (ID: carcaijing).
Since the national standard for low-speed electric vehicles was established in June, 20 16, news of the national standard has been published every year. Several times "the wolf is coming", it is still up in the air. The latest "Technical Specification for Four-wheel Low-speed Electric Vehicles" was formulated on 202 1.
"How to formulate the standards for low-speed electric vehicles may be the most complicated and difficult problem in China's automobile industry at present." 20 17, Dong Yang, then the leader of the drafting group of four-wheel low-speed electric vehicle standards and executive vice president of China Automobile Industry Association, bluntly said that this issue is not technically complicated, and the difficulty lies in the game of interests, especially the interests of local governments.
Whether to comply with the results of existing consumers' "voting with their feet" or to propose a more forward-looking industry development direction is a difficult question for policy makers to answer in the short term. Where will the low-speed electric vehicle industry go?
"Many companies say no,no."
"The audience of this year's auto show is much less than in previous years. There used to be so many people that I couldn't walk on the first day. The audience now is only as much as when the exhibition is about to close. " During the exhibition, Chen Fang lamented this trip (ID: carcaijing).
China (Jinan) New Energy Vehicle Electric Vehicle Exhibition is the largest exhibition in the low-speed electric vehicle industry, which is held once a year in spring and autumn. This spring's exhibition was cancelled due to the epidemic, and the industry believes that the exhibition in late August will attract more visitors.
The audience is gone, and so are some big brands that participated in the exhibition in previous years. Small and medium-sized enterprises from around Jinan account for half of the country with the naked eye.
▲? Are Jinan exhibition manufacturers actively promoting sales? /? Take a trip.
The low-speed electric vehicle industry is getting colder, and all practitioners can feel it.
"Now I dare not mention the account period with the enterprise. Those who have strength are not short of money, and those who have no strength dare not sell. " As the main supplier of Tianneng battery (008 19). HK), Li Yunlong, regional manager of new energy power battery business center, witnessed the declining trend of low-speed electric vehicles in recent years. "From 20 16 to 20 18, the business grew by about 200%-300% every year, but since last year, it has only been about 30% every year.
Li Yunlong told a reporter of a brigade (ID: Carcaijing) that due to insufficient cash flow during the epidemic, many low-speed electric vehicle manufacturers owed their suppliers money, ranging from several million to tens of millions, "just waiting for them to sell their cars and pay them back". And some small and medium-sized manufacturers, but also "say no".
According to the data of Shandong Automobile Industry Association, the market demand of four-wheel low-speed electric vehicles in China started in 20 13 years, and maintained a high-speed growth of more than 50% for several consecutive years, forming an industrial scale with an annual output of10 million vehicles, boosting the economy10 billion yuan, with about10 million employees in the upstream and downstream.
With the introduction of a paper ban, at the end of 20 18, the growth of sturm und drang began to fade obviously.
2018165438+10. On 8 October, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the Ministry of Transport and the General Administration of Market Supervision jointly issued the Notice on Strengthening the Management of Low-speed Electric Vehicles, which prohibited increasing the production capacity of low-speed electric vehicles and strengthening standardized management. ? At the beginning of 20 19, most cities in China followed suit and issued policies to give the low-speed four-wheel market a transition period of two to five years and prohibit new production capacity.
Some residents think that low-speed electric vehicles are a convenient means of transportation, but they have also become the original sin of low-speed electric vehicles in terms of safety. Relevant departments clearly pointed out that there are several problems in low-speed electric vehicles: first, most of the production enterprises are small and medium-sized enterprises without automobile production qualifications, and the product safety performance is poor; Second, most drivers have not obtained a motor vehicle driver's license, which has serious safety hazards.
A group of tourists (ID: carcaijing) learned from the relevant staff of the Equipment Industry Department of Zhoukou Industry and Information Technology Committee that the national rectification arrangement at the end of 20 18 aims to know the production status of low-speed electric vehicles in advance. At present, there is no enterprise producing four-wheel electric vehicles in Zhoukou. Regarding the judgment of compliance of low-speed four-wheel electric vehicles, the other party thinks that there is no standard now, and it cannot be said that he has violated the rules. "This thing has been produced like this for many years and there are various industrial and commercial procedures."
Ms. Zhang, a citizen of Zhoukou, Henan Province, told a brigade (ID: carcaijing) that low-speed electric vehicles that are not listed are always running around, which greatly affects traffic. "Need strict investigation. Most of them are opened by the elderly and are not safe. " In addition, Ms. Zhang believes that the battery safety of low-speed four-wheel electric vehicles cannot be guaranteed. "Cars driving at high speed can spontaneously ignite, not to mention."
Chen Fang told the traveler (ID: Carcaijing) that low-speed electric vehicle products are mostly developed in reverse. "If you have the strength, you will develop it yourself. If you don't have the strength, you will go abroad to buy a car and tear it down and imitate it directly. More importantly, you can see which car in the industry sells well and imitate it directly. "
It is not difficult to make a low-speed electric car. A traveler (ID: Carcaijing) saw around the exhibition hall of Jinan Auto Show that all kinds of suppliers directly set up stalls on the roadside to wait for business, from gearbox, range extender, body stamping parts to car glasses, steering wheel and interior, everything can be purchased directly or customized as needed.
▲? Outside the Jinan exhibition, suppliers are setting up stalls? /? Take a trip.
Before entering the exhibition hall, a traveler (ID: Carcaijing) was also stuffed with a leaflet of a Weifang enterprise, and various models made by the enterprise occupied three A4-sized picture books. "We are OEM and OEM, and enterprises only need to be responsible for the brand and do a good job for us." On the leaflet page, the phone number, address, WeChat QR code and contact information are all available.
Small enterprises are looking for OEM, and some medium and large enterprises have their own stamping, welding, painting and assembly workshops, which are similar to the automobile production process. However, most of the products on the market are similar, and there is no core advantage, so it is inevitable to fight price wars.
"Where are you from?" This is the most concerned issue for manufacturers. A brigade (ID: carcaijing) learned that in order to avoid price reduction and crush the market, manufacturers only recruit one dealer in a township. "You sell 20,000, and he sells 1.9 million. How can this work? " At present, the focus of investment promotion for manufacturers is to cover blank towns and villages.
Sell cars to towns that are more difficult to supervise.
Lao Li sold low-speed electric cars in Jiaozuo City, Henan Province for six years. Seeing that business was getting harder and harder, he decided to return to town last year.
"Strict investigation" is the unanimous feeling of dealers and consumers. Therefore, most low-speed electric vehicle companies choose to return to three or two rounds, or sell four-wheel products to towns or lower levels that are more difficult to supervise. At present, the lowest level of road management by law enforcement departments only goes to the county seat.
From 20 14 to 2020, the investment will be nearly one billion. Henan Luoyang Dahe New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd. had hoped to make a career with the help of the policy spring breeze of new energy vehicles, but unexpectedly, since 20 18, the policy wind has turned, and low-speed electric vehicles have become the object of constant propaganda by traffic police and national rectification, and the sales volume has plummeted.
The dream of transformation and upgrading from three rounds of production to four rounds of production is about to be broken. Zhang Huaiwen, director of the general manager's office, lamented to a brigade (ID: carcaijing): "I recently went back to my old bank to do three rounds, but the domestic market of three rounds has already belonged to the sunset industry, and the export abroad has also been greatly affected by the epidemic. Now the situation is really difficult."
Fulu Group, founded in 1994, is one of the leading brands of low-speed electric vehicles. A traveler (ID: Carcaijing) saw at the Fulu booth of the 2020 Jinan Auto Show that the most popular product was a fuel tricycle. Zhu, regional manager of Fulu Group, said: "Last year, its sales volume exceeded100000, while the sales volume of this car was 37000." .
This car can be licensed as a motorcycle. With legal status, the fuel tank also got rid of endurance anxiety. "Old people can drive to Tibet to Beijing. They think this is the top product at low speed. 40-year-old middle-aged people think this is a substitute for not getting a driver's license. Different people have different understandings of this car. " Zhu told a group of people (ID: carcaijing).
From the city to the urban-rural fringe, Miao Haimao (0095 1), head of the secondary market channel of the new energy division of Wei Chao Group. HK), but also felt the changes in the low-speed electric vehicle market. "We design batteries according to product requirements. In the past, the battery was 100 and 120 ampere-hours, but now it has dropped to 60 and 75 ampere-hours, and the models with reduced capacity have also dropped.
Is the market getting bigger or smaller? It's hard to say. Many practitioners believe that this shows that the market has become more subdivided and enterprises need to launch more targeted products.
In Dezhou, Shandong Province, a traveler (ID: carcaijing) saw that the main road No.38 in the city had restricted the low-speed electric vehicles between 7 am and 7 pm. The draft for comments issued by Texas Traffic Police shows that it is planned to expand the restricted area from 202 1 1 to the whole urban area.
A traveler (ID: carcaijing) recently observed the traffic police enforcing the law at a crossroads in Zhoukou City, Henan Province. Five minutes later, four or five low-speed electric vehicles passed by the traffic police without being stopped.
The traffic police admitted that there are no specific definition standards and solutions. "According to the traffic safety law, first, you can't drive in the fast lane. If you are in a non-motorized vehicle lane, you won't care. Then there are the refined standards for running red lights and overloading. For example, running a red light can be fined between 20- 100, and education can also be carried out, but this definition cannot be said. "
"Once a traffic control department sends a rumor that it is necessary to check low-speed electric vehicles, even if it is actually only checked for a period of time or not at all, as a consumer, spending more than 10,000 yuan to buy a car and not letting it go, then the money will be wasted. It is better not to buy it, which also inhibits the development of this industry." Zhang Huaiwen told a brigade (ID: carcaijing).
After returning to the town, Lao Li dismissed his employees and sold his own cars to repair cars. There are black stains under his nails, and he earns ten thousand dollars a month.
However, "identity" is still the biggest concern in the hearts of low-speed electric vehicle practitioners. "Don't buy four wheels. You can't go on the road if you buy one. You're checking everywhere. If you buy three rounds, you can get a motorcycle license, and the state will recognize it. " Lao Li made no secret of it.
Mr. Yang, a dealer in Zhoukou, Henan Province, thought of an "after-sales service": helping consumers pay fines or find relationships. "In order not to offend consumers, I sometimes help him pay a fine. Introduce him to buy a car for relatives and friends to contact in the future. " Mr. Yang told a brigade (ID: carcaijing) that it was like a few tens of dollars less, and it was solved at that time.
Zhang, chairman of Tianneng Group and deputy to the National People's Congress, believes that the State Council's clear working idea of "upgrading a batch, standardizing a batch and eliminating a batch" has been misunderstood or alienated into the "upgrading and elimination system" in many places, that is, guiding a group of standardized enterprises to upgrade to new energy automobile enterprises with passenger car qualifications, shutting down and eliminating a group of non-standardized enterprises with backward production capacity, eliminating them without upgrading, and turning "three batches" into "two batches" for production.
Upward transformation is the direction, but consumers do not necessarily pay the bill.
Most low-speed electric vehicles fled to the countryside, and a few head companies broke through the transformation of new energy vehicles, hoping to become a member of the "upgrade batch": Hebei Yujie and Great Wall Motor (60 1633. SH), who is also in Hebei, started to cooperate to launch the automobile brand "Leading the Way", and has released two A0-class and three A00-class new cars; Reading and Shandong Baoya are much richer. They bought more than one billion passenger car companies, obtained the qualification of building cars at high speed, and even set the goal of selling more than 6.5438+0.5 million vehicles in 2020.
▲? A low-speed electric vehicle market in Dezhou, Shandong Province? /? Take a trip.
"In the past, there were no clear requirements for the quality and technical standards of low-speed electric vehicles, such as steel plate thickness, car body strength and carrying capacity. Some enterprises may cut corners in pursuit of profits, causing some security risks. " Zhang Huaiwen told a brigade (ID: carcaijing), "Now we are making low-speed electric vehicles according to the standards of automobiles. We spend a lot of money on the equipment of electrophoresis line and spraying line, and spend millions and tens of millions on a whole set of equipment. Great efforts have also been made in environmental protection equipment. We are now raising goldfish in sewage to prove that all sewage is up to standard. "
The integration of design, R&D and manufacturing with automobiles is the consistent vision of low-speed electric vehicle enterprises. Zhang Limin, general manager of Yujie Automobile, also introduced to Traveler (ID: carcaijing) that Yujie's R&D team has about 440 people, most of whom are from the automobile main engine factory. At present, overall, the unit price of Yujie's products is going up.
According to Yao Yuan, general manager of Jingshang Intelligent Network Research Institute of Chinese Academy of Sciences, there are three major trends in the future low-speed electric vehicle industry: first, lithium electrification to achieve stable long battery life; The second is networking, which has become a trend due to the reduction of module cost; The third is integration, and the whole vehicle is controlled by the central control panel.
But it is conceivable that it is not easy to switch to a car. According to the traveler (ID: carcaijing), the car brand launched by Yujie Group two years ago is currently in a leading position. Due to poor sales, leading projects have now stopped, and the Group strives to become a new automobile brand.
A traveler (ID: Car Caijing) also saw in a Reading franchise store in Dezhou, Shandong Province that a new energy vehicle owned by Reading costs more than 60,000 yuan, and its cruising range is only 100 km-this mileage performance is undoubtedly far from the mainstream market of 400-500 km. In the store, few customers stop in front of this car, almost all for a reading low-speed electric car with a price below 30 thousand yuan.
"Everyone wants to go higher, just like people who open roadside stalls always want to open stores. But did anyone come when the shop opened? Even if there are prices in the store and on the roadside, people still like to eat tofu brains at roadside stalls. There is a problem of consumption habits here. " Chen Fang said to a traveler (ID: carcaijing).
According to the sales data released by the Association, in this year's A00-class automobile sales list, no automobile products made by a low-speed electric vehicle company have entered the top ten, while traditional automobile manufacturers such as Great Wall Motor and SAIC-GM-Wuling are still in the forefront. The total sales volume of Wenwen automobile from June 5438 to July this year is less than that of traditional automobile brands in one month.
Moreover, car companies represented by Wuling are actively exploring the 30,000 yuan market. A00-class Wuling Hong Guang MINI? The battery life of electric vehicles is also very short, which is mainly used for local traffic. The price starts from 29,800 yuan, and the sales volume exceeds 1.5 million in 20 days, which has a great impact on the low-speed electric vehicle market.
For the same 30,000 yuan, did consumers buy a low-speed electric car with a policy gap or a regular car with a license plate? A dealer in Dezhou, Shandong Province told the traveler (ID: carcaijing): "Wuling has a fashionable appearance and is suitable for young kannika nimtragol and housewives. Middle-aged and elderly people don't drive very much. After all, they have no driver's license. "
Some insiders bluntly told travelers (ID: CarCaijing) that if the new standards are followed, the cost will definitely rise. Such a low-speed electric vehicle does not meet the demand level of the original consumer groups, nor can it compete with pure electric vehicles, and eventually loses its meaning of existence.
And now is not a good time to enter the automobile market. Due to the decline in subsidies, the sales of new energy vehicles in China continued to decline from July 20 19 to June 2020.
As a high-end brand owned by Yujie, Wu Dui Youzu (ID: carcaijing), general manager of Magic Power Technology Development Co., Ltd. said that Yujie now adheres to the strategy of "walking on two legs". On the one hand, it provides everything the market needs, on the other hand, it goes further and provides high-quality products that lead the development of low-speed electric vehicle industry. He vividly said: "Just like those who sell large-scale chickens are selling local dishes now. Some people eat better, and no one eats and becomes famous. "
With the abundant financial resources accumulated in the rapid development of the industry in the past, a number of low-speed electric vehicle head enterprises are constantly trying. Wu himself is responsible for creating three brands owned by Yujie, aiming at different markets. For example, the average price of Phantom Electronic Technology's new car is 36,000 yuan, and the price of Yujie's new car is half of the former, which is 1.9 million yuan. "There are more children to fight."
New national standard for sawing
Zhao Fuquan, a professor at Tsinghua University Automotive Industry and Technology Strategy Research Institute, pointed out that although they are all driven by electricity, there are obvious differences between low-speed electric vehicles and pure electric vehicles promoted by the country at present. According to national standards, the maximum speed of pure electric vehicles is not less than 80km/h, and the driving range is not less than 80km. However, low-speed electric vehicles are not up to standard in speed and endurance, so they belong to special electric vehicles.
This special identity that has yet to be clarified is the source of controversy. Many practitioners believe that low-speed electric vehicles should be classified as motorcycles between passenger cars and agricultural vehicles, calling for more relaxed management; The Ministry of Public Security, which is in charge of road safety, advocates strict management and restricts licensing. Relevant leaders of the National Development and Reform Commission have also angered the use of "junk technology" in low-speed electric vehicles, which is simply "hopeless".
On 20 16 10, the national standards Committee formally approved the technical requirements for four-wheel low-speed electric vehicles, which is a recommended national standard with a project period of 24 months.
However, the national standard did not arrive as scheduled. Dong Yang said frankly that there are many management departments for vehicles in China, and it takes too long to reach a consensus. The NPC has always been accountable for this, and the two sessions have always been an important issue for members to be accountable.
The latest development of national standards took place on March 2, 20654381day. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that the completion date of the standard formulation plan of "Technical Conditions for Four-wheel Low-speed Electric Vehicles" was 202 1. It is worth noting that the national standard for low-speed electric vehicles has changed from recommendatory to mandatory and has been re-formulated. We are now soliciting opinions from the society, and the deadline is 202 1 year.
June 5438 +2020 10, Dong Yang revealed to the traveler (ID: Carcaijing) that the formulation of national standards is still unclear.
The news that "the wolf is coming" has been spread many times, and practitioners generally hope that the national standard can be introduced as soon as possible. "This is a grassroots industry with grassroots employees and grassroots users. There are too few people who speak first, and those who speak later have no strength, so it is difficult to shake the national policy, "Li Yunlong sighed to a traveler (ID: carcaijing).
At present, a core controversy in the national standard is whether low-speed electric vehicles should use existing lead-acid batteries or upgrade to lithium batteries.
From the perspective of industrial development, policy makers hope that the national standard will be more forward-looking. "Whether it is a low-speed electric car or a lead-acid battery car, it is contrary to the industrial policy encouraged by the state." Wang Binggang, head of the national 863 "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicles" major project supervision consulting expert group, said that lead-acid batteries were excluded at the beginning of the financial subsidy policy for new energy vehicles in national pilot cities because of pollution in the production and recycling of lead-acid batteries.
Publicity is also a policy consideration above commercial interests. Dong Yang pointed out that the minor principles should obey the major principles, with the interests of the people of the whole country (reasonable and orderly traffic order) first, the interests of all traffic participants (safety) second, and the interests of industry development and enterprises can only be ranked last.
However, in view of the policy tendency of rejecting lead-acid batteries, Yang Yusheng, an academician of China Academy of Engineering, bluntly said that at present, about 95% of low-speed electric vehicles use lead-acid batteries, and rejecting lead-acid batteries is a radical measure. "The national standard is formulated to promote the development of low-speed electric vehicles in the direction of standardization, rather than killing low-speed electric vehicles in the name of standardization."
Zhang thinks from the practitioner's point of view: "What kind of technical route should be adopted by low-speed electric vehicles should be decided by the market and consumers, and the indicators cannot be raised indefinitely. Just like the consumption upgrade, it does not mean that people are only allowed to eat jiaozi, and porridge is not allowed. "
The local government also believes that this industry with large output value and many upstream and downstream enterprises cannot be easily killed. Tourists (ID: Carcaijing) observed in several cities in Shandong Province and Henan Province, and found that due to centralized government procurement, low-speed electric vehicles have become grass-roots official vehicles, which are used for daily law enforcement by traffic police, urban management and other departments.
If lead-acid batteries are replaced by lithium batteries, the price of bicycles will rise sharply. A traveler (ID: carcaijing) learned in the aforementioned reading car franchise store that the same low-speed electric vehicle model, the lithium battery version costs 29,000 yuan, and the lead-acid battery version costs 26,000 yuan, but the lithium battery's 3 -5 year service cycle is almost twice that of the lead-acid battery. "People who want to save money buy lead acid, and people who understand buy lithium batteries. Now they buy lithium batteries a little more than lead acid. " The clerk told the traveler (ID: carcaijing).
Zhang Huaiwen hopes that the standards will be introduced as soon as possible, giving his products an identity. "On 20 18, the funder was willing to invest 200 million yuan to do it with us, because I heard that the policy could be issued at the beginning of 20 19, and the result has not yet come out, and the cooperation is gone."
▲? Respondent Zhang Huaiwen for the picture
Although the date of the national standard is still unclear, the practitioners interviewed by Traveler (ID: Carcaijing) are generally not overly worried. "After all, the national standard for electric vehicles has been used for 20 years, and low-speed electric vehicles have only been used for several years."
The earliest electric bicycle standard in China was published in 1999, but the standard lags behind the times. The electric bicycle industry has grown wantonly for 20 years, and the new national standard known as "the strictest in history" was officially implemented in April 20 19.
"For more than 20 years, in order to improve the ability of travel and transportation, the countryside has been constantly looking for a mode of transportation that is suitable for its own economic ability and use environment. From walking tractors with Tuo Dou to agricultural vehicles, motorcycles and two-wheeled electric vehicles. However, almost every upgrade has encountered many doubts, discrimination and opposition. Now the low-speed electric vehicle has reached this point again. " Chen Qingtai, chairman of China Electric Vehicle committee of 100, pointed out. ? (Editor/Yang Peiqian)
(At the request of the interviewee, Zhang Huaiwen, Chen Fang and Liu Hong are pseudonyms)
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.