Qu Qing

The market fluctuated greatly last week, but compared with last week's interest rate, the short-term interest rate went up and the long-term interest rate was basically stable. This time, I pay attention to several issues:

First, how to use the extra MPA quota? In the process of communication with banks, although most banks indicated that the pressure of MPA assessment was high at the end of the second quarter, there were also a few banks with little pressure on MPA, so how to use the extra MPA quota? From the perspective of MPA's assessment index system, if the assessment index of generalized credit growth rate still does not exceed the standard for a bank, then we can make full use of the existing index quota to achieve the goal of making a high base and reducing the pressure of future assessment. If the growth rate of generalized credit is still limited after considering the restriction of capital adequacy ratio on the growth rate of generalized credit, we can use the full amount by increasing the supply of generalized credit. Specifically, banks can choose assets with relatively high returns from all kinds of assets covered by generalized credit for allocation. However, due to the relatively long term of loans, equity and others (mainly peers), it will be difficult to reduce the asset scale once the growth rate of generalized credit is under pressure in the future; If it is a bond, there is a valuation risk. Therefore, from the perspective of short-term credit line, it is a more reasonable choice for banks with credit line to buy assets for resale (repurchase, etc.). ) and deposit non-deposit financial funds (interbank lending, etc.). ).

If banks have a short-term demand to accelerate the growth of broad credit, they can increase the amount of bond repurchase, interbank lending and deposits.

However, we should be wary that the tolerance of capital adequacy ratio in the second quarter may still be cancelled. In the first quarter, some banks reported that the tolerance index of 4% capital adequacy ratio had been cancelled in the MPA assessment process of a few provinces and regions. Because the cancellation of the tolerance of capital adequacy ratio may reduce the upper limit of broad credit growth of banks by more than 10 percentage point, once it is cancelled, it will bring great pressure on banks to meet MPA assessment standards, which is worthy of vigilance.

Of course, the banks that don't have the pressure of MPA assessment at present are precisely the banks whose asset scale has expanded slowly in the past few years, and they are also relatively stable banks. Under the current background of financial deleveraging, banks that have expanded too fast in the past have already felt the pressure of various regulatory indicators, so even if these banks with slow expansion have excess MPA, I am afraid they will not rashly accelerate the pace of asset expansion at this time.

Second, how long can the volume and price of certificates of deposit in Shuang Sheng last? Last week, the loose funds stimulated the supply and demand of the deposit receipt market, and the issuance scale reached 460 billion, a significant increase from the previous period; From the demand point of view, market enthusiasm is also picking up. However, the interest rate rose significantly, and the share price of 1 month exceeded 5%. Judging from the volume and price of Shuang Sheng, it should be said that supply exceeds demand.

We have analyzed before, in order to improve the assessment indicators, the demand for issuing certificates of deposit is very large; But for buyers, excessive purchase of certificates of deposit at the end of the season will lead to a decline in regulatory indicators. There are still 1 trillion certificates of deposit due at the end of June, and the gap between the issuance and demand of certificates of deposit in the later period may be greater than that at present, so the interest rate of certificates of deposit will continue to climb. Therefore, the volume and price trend of Shuang Sheng certificates of deposit may continue until the end of this quarter. It is suggested that if there is demand for certificates of deposit, you can slow down the pace of allocation and allocate them at the high point at the end of June.

Of course, the enthusiasm for issuing certificates of deposit has once again ignited, indicating that there is no real deleveraging. In fact, since the beginning of this year, the scale of net issuance of certificates of deposit has continued to rise, but there was a short-term negative growth in the scale of certificates of deposit in May. Dependence on certificates of deposit remains high for two reasons:

(1) I am worried that CD will be included in the inter-bank liabilities in the future, and the active debt space will be restricted, so I will start first. This concern of banks essentially reflects the idea that banks are unwilling to deleverage.

(2) As the assets have been fully allocated, they are nothing more than loans, non-standard or outsourcing. The loan is long-term; Non-standard, no liquidity; If outsourcing is locked up, these assets are not easy to expire, so the liability side can only renew the insurance.

Third, what about the loss of outsourcing? During the recent roadshow, many banks were very concerned about this issue. We believe that if the outsourcing scale is contrary to the compliance requirements, it can only be redeemed. If outsourcing is within the compliance requirements and there is no payment pressure for the time being, then we offer some suggestions:

(1) From the trend point of view, the outsourcing loss can only be made up by the improvement of the bond market, but don't expect the loss to come back immediately. At present, some banks are in a hurry, hoping to make up for the losses immediately. After a long time, it will often lead to greater losses. After all, the adjustment of the bond market is not over yet, and the tail risk of the bond market is actually a great risk. It is not recommended to extend the term at this time. At present, the primary task is to maintain the stability of product liquidity. Of course, once the bond market is found to have improved, it can be extended for a long time to make up for the losses through market improvement. What needs to be vigilant is that this round of bond bear market has domestic reasons and global monetary policy tightening reasons. Even if the domestic pressure finally eases in the future, the foreign pressure will not ease immediately, so don't expect the interest rate to return to the bottom of last year, so the outsourcing losses made in the second and third quarters of last year may take several years to come back.

(2) After financial deleveraging, the loss of old products will be diluted by expanding the scale of financial management. For example, if 500 million yuan loses 5%, then the scale of financial management will gradually enlarge and the loss will be diluted. However, it is more difficult now. On the one hand, the cost of financial management is very high, and now it has expanded its scale, and the new scale may also face the pressure of loss.

(3) Change more suitable managers in time. After a bear market, the performance of different managers has a great deviation. Because of the great development of outsourcing and the bull market of bonds last year, the performance difference between different teams cannot be reflected. Once the market enters a bear market, the management ability of different teams is very different. Moreover, at the same time of product loss, it also aggravated the difficulty of communication between the client and the manager, and even the two sides formed distrust. Therefore, replacing a more suitable manager in time will help the product make up for the loss as soon as possible.

There are several specific ways: first, through multiple transactions, the whole product will be translated to other managers. The advantage of this is to ensure that the position will not fluctuate greatly. But the downside is that some high-risk debts have not been cleared out. Second, thoroughly clear the old products and find a new manager. This bad place is that it will achieve valuation losses, but it can clean up junk debts. After all, these debts will face great risks in the future.