On Tuesday, I received an investment banker who had been immersed in Wall Street for many years. He said that after the financial crisis, the United States has rapidly recovered from the real economy to the financial system. In the process of deleveraging, many important economic indicators are in the best period of the past 60 years, and the stock market has also hit a record high.
And China's leverage process, government debt inflation, 6? 20? The incident shows from one side that China's economy is extremely fragile and sensitive to deleveraging. From the financial sector to the real economy, funds are running at full capacity, and if they are stretched too tightly, they will break.
The investment banker also pointed out whether the banking system in China exists. Bound by land or even buried? In addition to direct real estate loans, which account for about 10% of the total scale, the effective mortgage of banks is mainly land, whether it is government platform or industrial and commercial enterprise loans, directly or indirectly, which is the largest in China? Landlord? It has quietly changed from a government to a bank, which is a mine for the banking industry. 10 years, through planning adjustment, land degradation, land value soared, and the government discounted it to banks. If the economy stalls and liquidity becomes worse, the land held by banks will become? Mines? .
Xia Bin's judgment is also based on the risk of land assets expansion, high leverage and high debt? Debt service gap of local platforms, real estate bubble, overcapacity? The three systemic risks are superimposed and transmitted to each other. As long as there is a big event in a certain link, the risk will be transmitted instantly, and the asset price will shrink sharply immediately. In fact, this is a rational conclusion that any scholar who knows the real state of China's economy will draw.
From the subprime mortgage crisis to the European debt crisis, let us understand that the collapse from prosperity to decline and from temples to ruins often happens overnight. And all this, as long as two conditions? The lever is long enough and the foam is ripe enough. How much stock and quality are there in the over-indebted local financing platforms? Now everyone is worried. According to the official report, the stock is about 10 trillion yuan, doubled by Xiang Huaicheng, the former chairman of the social security fund, and doubled by foreign investment banks.
Because it is opaque and has a lot of caliber, there is a big deviation between the government debt estimated by the outside world and the official version, which is the characteristic of China? Data deviation? How to define the debt boundary of local governments needs more transparency. No wonder Henry, the former US Treasury Secretary who visited China last month? Paulson once suggested? China should establish a transparent local financial system? .
Fitch, an internationally renowned rating agency, reported at the beginning of the year that the overall level of general government debt in China in 20 12 was equivalent to 49.2% of GDP. In view of the fact that local governments still have local debt risks and hidden debt burdens, compared with the reserve guarantee coefficient, the risks are worthy of attention. We condemn it as? Short China's crow mouth? ,? Don't understand the national conditions, very unprofessional? . It's just that the audit report has repeatedly reminded the platform of the risk of excessive debt, and hundreds of trillion days of funds have been? Red top businessman? A large number of projects have been invested in image projects with no benefits and no cash flow, which leads to the desolation of expressway. High-speed trains often have only one passenger compartment, blindly building airports, ports and docks and? Olympic village? Nearly 200 airports lost more than 70%, and poor counties had to build large ports. If you throw the money into the water, throw it there when it is finished. Even the county seat is full of green expositions and Olympic sports centers? It's a bottomless pit for swallowing gold, but you swear? Are they all high-quality assets? , is it? Big warehouse of national wealth? .
This over-indebted, multi-caliber and opaque confused account? How confused is it? . Borrow new or old? Ponzi game? Continue to play, in recent years, with the help of dazzling financial innovation tools such as wealth management, trust, bonds, entrusted loans, BT plus PE, the debt leverage has been lengthened. When the economy is pro-cyclical, these assets are valuable and can be discounted by banks. When the crisis occurs, these chickens can't reproduce eggs, and their value will be greatly reduced. When the leverage is long enough and the bubble is big enough, when all luck, superstition and greed are suddenly attacked by panic at a certain moment, the flood of liquidity will suddenly alienate into a black hole of liquidity and dry up, and then shout? Help? It's too late, there is no basis for the inherent laws of the market? Strong government? Willing to transfer.
It is worth noting that some experts recently suggested that local governments should take local debt as a breakthrough to accelerate the formation of a domestic bond market dominated by local debt, and called this? Let China's economy survive intact? A move. Judging from the high default, high extension period and high leverage ratio that have appeared in various places, if the market is built according to this, will it be staged one after another? 6? 20? Once the inter-bank market defaults, the fuse of the local government debt crisis will be lit, and it will be greeted by a loud noise and a sea of fire.
Real estate and local debt risks are a pair? Siam? . And the high leverage of real estate and local debt is naturally formed with the banking system? Trinity killer. . The audit report shows that there are? A woman marries more? The problems of repeated mortgage include the invalid mortgage of parks, hospitals and even road green belts. The biggest landlord in China is no longer the land department, but the banking industry? Change hands? Become the biggest landlord. With constants? Flying? The price of land assets has expanded dozens or even hundreds of times, which goes hand in hand with the accumulation of credit. From 4 trillion in that year? Steady and ruthless? Life-saving money, plus 100 trillion credit funds, accumulated more than 40 trillion credit in five years, M2 easily crossed the 100 trillion mark, and the base currency reached the peak of Genesis 8848. This is a milestone, but it will become a monument to the financial system if you are not careful? After every credit peak, there will always be chaos.
In fact, bad debts have already appeared. Since the beginning of this year, bad debts of banks and state-owned enterprises have been exposed on a large scale. Even some policy banks are deeply involved in industries with excessive competition such as steel, photovoltaic and shipbuilding. The credit flood peak aggravated the crisis of overcapacity. Some industries such as steel trade have hundreds of billions of bad debts, which is enough to offset the profits of aggressive lending banks for one year, but the risks are not really revealed. What is the future of banking? Demining engineering? There is a long way to go.
Long-term prosperity has spawned an unprecedented bubble. The government debt burden is too heavy, the economic growth model depends on real estate, and the banking industry has high profits. These are all risks that are difficult to hide and are not considered as problems in prosperous times. Because it has not experienced a major cyclical recession, as long as the crisis does not occur, all officials and scholars who endorse the government believe that a well-run macro-economy and a strong administrative force can prevent any disaster. In their eyes, the engine of economic growth is still strong. They are experts in walking the balance beam, walking on stilts and even playing high-altitude magic. All they need is moderate fine-tuning and easy to put away. However, if the understanding is wrong, all actions may have devastating results.
The long-term stagnation of reforms in major and key areas, the failure of regulation in sensitive and complex areas such as real estate, and the superposition of multiple systemic risks such as excessive local platforms, real estate bubbles and overcapacity have made the contradictions, conflicts and conduction accumulated in the economic and financial system constantly ferment. Can China's economy stand up? More than one arrow at a time? The multiple risks of strong vibration have yet to be tested. This is the peak of the race between reform and crisis. The longer you hesitate and procrastinate, the greater the risk of unknown uncertainty. I often think about a problem. If the exchange rate mechanism is improper, the domestic currency is excessive, the real estate bubble is inflated to the extreme, the government debt crisis and the deterioration of bank asset quality are intertwined, and financial risks and financial risks are superimposed on each other, and internal and external troubles may evolve into crises. This will be the continuation, climax and end of the subprime mortgage crisis and the European debt crisis, and the destructive power of this tsunami will not be inferior to that of 2008.
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