Zhang ping

More than half of 20 14 has passed, and the A-share market has also ushered in a "mid-term assessment". As of yesterday's close, the Shanghai Composite Index reported 2036.5 1 point, with a cumulative decrease of about 3.76% during the year, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 73 12.62, with a cumulative decrease of 9.96% in the first half of the year. Since the interval amplitude of the Shanghai Composite Index in the first half of this year was only 10.3 1%, it was the narrowest amplitude in the first half of this year, which also greatly reduced the trading enthusiasm of investors. The market downturn led to the daily average turnover rate of A-share market in the first half of this year being less than 1%, and the daily average turnover was only180 billion yuan.

Compared with Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index and Shanghai Composite Index, most major overseas stock markets performed positively in the first half of this year. In the first half of this year, the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and Standard & Poor's 500 Index not only hit record highs, but also rose by 1.63%, 4.85% and 5.89% respectively. France's CAC40 index and Germany's DAX index rose by 3.45% and 2.68% respectively in the first half of the year, and India and Brazil, both emerging economies, also rose in different degrees in the first half of the year.

Many investors and even experts can't understand the current "zombie" market of A shares. Looking back at the performance of the A-share market in the first half of this year, except for the short-term happiness brought to investors around the Spring Festival and from mid-March to mid-April, the stock market did not give a good face for most of the first half of 20 14. They feel that the performance of A shares should never be like this:

First, although China's economy is undergoing difficult adjustment, it still maintained a growth rate of more than 7% in the first half of the year, and it still stands out in the world. The performance of the stock market should not be so rigid. Second, Xiao Gang, the seventh head of the CSRC, ruled the market with an iron fist. Since the beginning of this year, in addition to strictly investigating insider trading, a series of combination punches have been made at the institutional level, including the reform of the new share issuance system, the launch of a new round of delisting system reform of listed companies, the introduction of directional convertible bonds, preferred stocks, and the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect pilot system, which is undoubtedly good for the stock market. Third, the IPO of A shares did not open in the first half of the year, and the poor performance of A shares was embarrassing.

Of course, the "zombie" market in the A-share market in the first half of the year has passed, and people are full of hope for the future in the second half. In the face of the Shanghai Composite Index's monthly K-line cross star for five consecutive months, the stock index has always been consolidating above 2000 points. Experts believe that the first is that the stock market can't go down, and the second is that the stock market can't go up. This embarrassing situation is expected to break through in the second half of the year. So is it an upward breakthrough? Or collapse? The author believes that the probability of the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 2000 points in the second half of the year is increasing, and this year's stock market is expected to be the "honor" at the bottom of the world in the fifth year.

First of all, "micro-stimulus" is difficult to change the downward trend of the economy. The "micro-stimulus" policy of steady growth has been introduced continuously, and the cumulative effect has gradually emerged, especially in June, the initial PMI of HSBC's manufacturing industry in China exceeded market expectations. However, most institutions believe that the overall economic situation is still difficult to be reversed by policies. Even institutions such as CITIC Securities are even more blunt, and it is difficult to hedge the pressure of real estate inflection point and the impact of de-capacity with small-scale repeated micro-stimulation. The market predicts that the GDP growth rate in the second quarter to the fourth quarter will be 7.39%, 7.3 1% and 7.33% respectively, and there is still room for improvement.

In addition, the downturn and expected reversal of the real estate industry may have an impact on the entire A-share market. The author believes that most industries of A shares are related to the real estate industry chain, and the prosperity will be impacted by the downward trend of real estate investment. In this context, the performance of listed companies may decline quarter by quarter this year after a quarterly report is significantly lower than expected. The historical trend of A shares shows that the market performance is often bleak in the down cycle of listed companies' profits.

Finally, with the economic downturn, non-performing loans generated by manufacturing, real estate, shadow banking and local government financing platforms are on the rise, which will undoubtedly bring unprecedented pressure to listed banks. The current situation is that any of the above problems will trigger a chain reaction of "dominoes" and eventually form a financial crisis. Therefore, the market is worried that the performance of banking stocks as the main weight plate of A shares will be affected. In the case that the financial sector has not yet started, it is an idiotic dream for A shares to break through. After a long period of consolidation, the market is likely to keep looking for the bottom in the second half of the year.

In addition, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes have been consolidating in the current region for several months, and it is time to finally decide the direction. As the saying goes, "long-term stocks will fall." Therefore, once A shares fall below 2000 points in July and August, the region will accumulate a large number of locked chips at present, which will form an anti-suppression for the future market rebound.

Why did A shares "bargain-hunting" the global stock market for four consecutive years? Maybe it will continue this year. On the one hand, due to the economic downturn, the potential financial risks can not be ignored, which has curbed the rise of the stock market. On the other hand, the market has no money-making effect, peripheral funds refuse to enter the market, and the limited stock of funds is unsustainable. In addition, although the regulatory authorities have carried out a series of important reforms on A-shares, it is good for the stock market in the long run, but it is inevitable that the market will suffer pain in the short term. In the absence of internal and external factors, it is strange that the A-share market can get out of a relatively decent market in the second half of the year.