The General Office of Zhengzhou Municipal People's Government issued a circular on promoting the healthy development of the real estate industry, and put forward specific measures from five aspects: supporting reasonable housing demand and increasing credit financing support 19.
Among them, in view of the demand for improved house purchase, the "house-recognizing loan" was explicitly cancelled, making it the first city in China to relax the loan restriction. This has a very important role in restoring market confidence, and there will be more pressure on cities to follow suit in the future.
Source: official website, Zhengzhou Municipal People's Government
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? Stimulate the release of housing demand and reduce the pressure on the main body.
Pay attention to the policy content first!
1. Cancel the purchase restriction in a targeted manner and allow some families to buy new houses. For children and close relatives who work and live in Zheng, the elderly are encouraged to come to Zheng to support the elderly and allow them to buy new houses.
2. Support the demand for improved house purchase, and explicitly cancel the "house recognition and loan recognition". For families who own a house and have settled the corresponding housing loans, in order to improve their living conditions, they apply for loans to buy ordinary commercial housing again, and banking financial institutions implement the first home loan policy. Residents who sell small things and buy big things because of the increase of family population and the improvement of income conditions can provide convenience in personal mortgage, online signing and real estate registration procedures within the scope of family purchase restriction.
3. Guide the downward adjustment of mortgage interest rate to reduce the pressure of buying houses. Guide Zhengzhou financial institutions to increase the supply of personal housing mortgage loans and reduce the interest rate of housing loans.
4. Reduce the main pressure and adjust the land transfer rules. The land supplier will reduce the minimum proportion of the land auction deposit to 20% of the listing price, and the land transfer fee can be paid in installments within 1 year after the transaction.
5. Implement monetized resettlement. Combined with the real estate market situation, adhere to the monetary resettlement. For resettlement houses that have not started construction, residents are encouraged to choose monetized resettlement.
6. Clearly give enterprise project loan support. Organize bank-enterprise docking on a regular basis, encourage financial institutions to issue and renew loans to enterprises in difficulty, increase loan support for mergers and acquisitions of real estate enterprises in accordance with the principles of legal compliance, controllable risks and sustainable business, and effectively alleviate the operating pressure of capital chain of market entities.
Whether it is the adjustment of the demand side or the adjustment of the supply side, the policy is constantly easing and improving, but the wait-and-see mood in the market still has inertia, and it remains to be seen whether the policy can achieve immediate results in the short term after its introduction.
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? Downward pressure on Zhengzhou property market has increased
Why Zhengzhou?
As a microcosm of the national pressure city, the background of this policy can not be ignored.
As the capital of Henan Province, Zhengzhou has a strong siphon capacity. Since 20 10, the permanent population in Zhengzhou has been in a positive inflow trend for a long time. According to the data of the seventh census, by the end of 2020, the permanent population of Zhengzhou has reached112.6 million. However, in stark contrast to the benign performance of the population, the property market is depressed.
First of all, Zhengzhou property market is in a state of oversupply all the year round. From the perspective of supply and demand, 20 16 can be said to be the watershed of Zhengzhou property market. Prior to this, the demand continued to be released, and after the transaction scale rose sharply, the Zhengzhou property market began a long callback. The scale of commercial housing transactions has been declining year by year, and the strategies of price-for-volume exchange such as price reduction promotion and low down payment have emerged one after another. In 20021year, the transaction area of commercial housing was only 9.48 million square meters, a decrease of 24.45% compared with 2020.
Figure: Supply and demand scale of commercial housing in Zhengzhou since 20 12.
Judging from the monthly transaction data, the transaction scale of commercial housing in Zhengzhou has been declining month by month since May 20021year, and the transaction scale has achieved "negative growth" for nine consecutive months. By June 5438+ 10, 2022, the transaction area of new commercial housing was only 460,000 square meters, down by 14.83% year-on-year, and the average transaction price dropped by about 4% year-on-year to 14 153 yuan/square meter.
Zhengzhou faces great inventory pressure. Zhengzhou's inventory pressure surged in June this year, 5438+ 10, and the narrow inventory increased by 25% month-on-month. The inventory digestion cycle was 2 1.9 months, an increase of 2.8 months from the previous month. Under the pressure of market and de-transformation, the number of special rooms with unsalable housing in the market has increased, and the overall market confidence is insufficient.
Figure: Monthly supply and demand of commercial housing in Zhengzhou from 20 19 to 202 1 to 12.
Judging from the land market, after the frequent emergence of land kings in 20 15 years, brand-name housing enterprises flocked to seize the market. However, since 20 19, the total construction area of residential land transactions has been declining year by year, in which the total residential land transactions in floor-area ratio decreased by 28.7% in 20 19 and continued to decrease by 25.7% in 20021year. The high transaction scale of 20 19-2020 residential land reserves sufficient supply for housing enterprises. With the market purchasing power "peaking" and the demand declining, the enthusiasm of housing enterprises for land acquisition is generally not high. Under the downward trend of the property market, the survival pressure of housing enterprises has gradually increased.
Figure: Monthly supply and demand of commercial housing in Zhengzhou from 20 19 to 202 1 to 12.
In addition, the limited purchasing power of residents is also a problem that cannot be ignored in the property market. At present, the demand of Zhengzhou property market is obvious, and the growth of high-end demand is weak, but it is limited by the overdraft of residents' purchasing power and the slowdown of economic growth. Zhengzhou's subsequent transaction scale is also difficult to reach a new level.
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? Pressure cities will join the ranks of "bailout"
In the first two months of 2022, the real estate market was not optimistic, and the overall supply and demand and prices showed a downward trend.
In this context, Zhengzhou's "bailout" policy has a strong demonstration effect on other cities, and similar "bailout" situations will appear in other cities one after another.
As for what kind of cities will follow up with great probability?
Overall, the demand for market decompression in second-and third-tier cities is relatively strong, which can be roughly divided into three categories.
First of all, the real estate inventory is high, which is a pressure city with a cycle of more than 24 months. For example, among the 30 second-tier cities, the inventory digestion cycle of Harbin, Dalian, Lanzhou, Changchun, Hohhot and Qingdao is more than 2 years, mostly in the northern inland cities. The situation in third-and fourth-tier cities is even more severe, with the overall de-chemical cycle as high as 2 1.09 months, and 32 of 66 cities have a de-chemical cycle of more than 20 months;
The second category, cities with high land auction rate and high financial dependence on land have stronger motivation to relax;
The third category is cities where house prices have fallen too fast. In order to slow down the downward pressure on the market and reverse the expectation of bearish housing prices, it is even more necessary to support the property market for such pressure cities whose housing prices fall too fast or fall to the "price limit order", and the rescue policy will be even stronger.
Judging from the content of "rescuing the market", the main tone of the policy is still to stabilize the market. There is little room for adjustment of the demand-side purchase restriction, mainly focusing on adjusting the down payment ratio, and adjusting "recognizing the house and the loan" to "recognizing the house" or "recognizing the loan" and monetizing the resettlement. There will be more adjustments on the supply side, such as land transfer rules and burden reduction for housing enterprises.
At present, the whole property market is still in the adjustment period, and most cities are still in a wait-and-see state. In 2022, all localities will continue the policy idea of "policy by city". Zhengzhou's "bailout" has a positive role in promoting the expected recovery of the market. More cities will take deregulation or even "bailout" measures due to the downward pressure of the market, but its pull on the market is really limited and the market is difficult to reverse. The market demand and purchasing power of core first-and second-tier cities are still strong, and there may be a reverse contraction.
At present, the real estate market is still facing great downward pressure, and the industry is still in the stage of bottoming out. Whether it can achieve "Xiaoyangchun" in the next three or four months is crucial to the recovery of industry confidence, otherwise the market will continue to wait and see.