The impact of the international financial crisis on my country's cotton textile industry
1. The financial crisis has made it more difficult for my country's cotton textile products to be exported. From the subprime mortgage crisis in early 2008 to the current financial crisis, the economies of major economies have been shrinking. The impact of the financial crisis on the cotton textile industry has begun to appear. Now it is generally said that the impact of the financial crisis has passed 80 years, but for cotton The impact on the textile industry has only begun in the 20s. As a result, the impact of the financial crisis will become greater and greater, and the export of cotton textile products will also decline accordingly.
2. Foreign product orders will decrease. Due to the financial crisis, it is difficult to see the market outlook clearly, and expectations are generally not good. Moreover, there are also exchange rate factors, and orders for my country's cotton textile products will further decrease. The results of the National Textile Industry Association's survey of the Canton Fair show that orders from European and American merchants have dropped significantly. Due to the decline in export growth and the substantial reduction in orders, the profitability of cotton textile companies has further declined.
3. Trade protection policies will come frequently in the international market. According to international laws, when the economy shows depression due to the impact of the financial crisis, trade protectionism will often strengthen, so in 2009 we will still face the pressure of international tradeism. The Sino-US trade agreement is about to expire, and the cancellation of quotas in 21 categories will unleash an export blowout again. However, currently, U.S. textile organizations are lobbying Congress, and have even mobilized many textile industry organizations in developing countries to jointly submit a letter to continue to request the U.S. Congress to introduce restrictions on Chinese textiles. This depends on what policies Obama will adopt, especially towards China. We must be mentally prepared for our trade policy. If we continue to set restrictions, it will be another obstacle to our exports.
From the perspective of future development trends, the current appreciation of the US dollar is not sustainable. On the one hand, the U.S. government has launched a large-scale financial rescue plan, hundreds of billions of dollars of funds are being injected into the financial market in batches, and the supply of U.S. dollars is constantly increasing. On the other hand, cutting interest rates to stimulate domestic consumption and investment growth will also be an indispensable regulatory tool for the United States in the process of economic recovery. With the gradual implementation of this series of measures, the liquidity of the US dollar will inevitably recover, and the value of the US dollar will gradually fall below the current level, showing a state of depreciation. In fact, when the U.S. IT industry bubble burst at the beginning of this century and triggered an overall slowdown in U.S. economic growth, the U.S. dollar also showed a clear appreciation trend. As the U.S. economy gradually recovered, the U.S. dollar's depreciation trend gradually became apparent.
The depreciation of the U.S. dollar will inevitably lead to a passive appreciation of the RMB, and the impact of appreciation on an export-oriented industry such as my country's textile industry is obvious. It will inevitably weaken export price competitiveness and bring about foreign exchange settlement losses in the process of RMB appreciation. . At the same time, it is still very difficult to accurately estimate how long the current stable state of the U.S. dollar exchange rate can last and when the expected depreciation of the U.S. dollar will actually occur. Therefore, even under the current stable exchange rate, it is still a difficult problem for export companies to quote their next export orders in order to reduce foreign exchange settlement losses. This will inevitably lead to companies trying to avoid orders with large volumes and long delivery times. In fact, The above is to reduce the company's income. The same is true for companies that import raw materials. Due to the lack of certainty in the trend of the U.S. dollar exchange rate, it is difficult to predict commodity price trends. In order to avoid inventory losses, companies can only purchase raw materials while organizing production, which will inevitably lead to lower operating levels and reduced profits.
While the financial crisis has impacted financial institutions in the United States, Europe and other countries, it has also had a strong impact on the smoothness of the capital chains of domestic enterprises in these countries. The capital crunch of financial institutions in developed countries has caused them to be more cautious in their external lending, and the total loan volume has also continued to grow steadily, showing a sharp deceleration trend for the first time in recent years. According to statistics from the Federal Reserve, from January to September 2008, the year-on-year growth rate of U.S. commercial banks' loan balances to domestic industrial and commercial enterprises dropped by about 4 percentage points from the same period last year.
The tightening of lending by financial institutions has made it more difficult for importers in the United States, Europe and other countries to obtain financing, and the capital turnover situation has significantly worsened than before. The direct impact on my country's textile enterprises is that the solvency of foreign importers has declined, and exports The risk of collecting payment after delivery has increased significantly compared to before the financial crisis. According to the survey, although it is still a very rare phenomenon for foreign importers to refuse payment due to insufficient cash flow, it is very common for importers in the United States and Europe to have their payment cycles significantly lengthened in recent months. Generally speaking, importers with good credit used to pay off the balance other than the advance payment within 20 to 30 days after delivery. However, since the outbreak of the financial crisis, the payment cycle has generally been extended to 40 to 50 days.
The extension of the importer's payment cycle has caused a decrease in the capital withdrawal speed of my country's export textile enterprises, which is equivalent to reducing the capital turnover efficiency of my country's export enterprises. Under the tight monetary policy since the beginning of this year, the financial environment for my country's textile enterprises has become very tight. Although monetary policy has begun to loosen, for most textile companies that continue to be in a state of meager profits, the financial environment cannot be completely and effectively improved in a short period of time. Under such circumstances, the decline in capital withdrawal efficiency caused by the financial crisis will obviously further increase the financial pressure on textile enterprises, directly affecting many aspects of enterprise production and operation such as raw material procurement, salary payment, and bank repayment.
According to customs statistics, my country imported 1.866 million tons of cotton from January to October 2008, valued at US$3.11 billion, a decrease of 8.3% and an increase of 10.1% respectively compared with the same period last year (the same below); the average import price was US$1,667/ton. , an increase of 20. In October, 96,000 tons were imported, worth US$170 million, a decrease of 29.8 and 18.2 respectively. This article comes from textile resources. Netizens please directly enter the textile resources in the browser to view it.
1. Main features of my country’s cotton imports from January to October 2008
(1) Mainly imported through general trade and bonded area warehousing and re-export. From January to October this year, my country imported 651,000 tons of cotton through general trade, a decrease of 22.5%; it imported 494,000 tons through warehousing and re-export in the bonded area, an increase of 11.2%. The two together accounted for 61.4% of my country's total cotton imports during the same period.
(2) Mainly imported from the United States, India and Uzbekistan. From January to October 2008, my country imported 826,000 tons of cotton from the United States, a decrease of 18.8%; imported 570,000 tons of cotton from India, an increase of 34.4%; and imported 166,000 tons of cotton from Uzbekistan, a decrease of 15.8%. The three together accounted for 83.7% of my country's total cotton imports during the same period.
(3) Private enterprises account for half of the country’s imports. From January to October this year, private enterprises imported 990,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 1.1%, accounting for 53.1% of my country's total cotton imports during the same period. State-owned enterprises imported 508,000 tons, a decrease of 18.4%; foreign-invested enterprises imported 369,000 tons, a decrease of 14.5%.
As the financial crisis continues to spread, European and American economies have experienced varying degrees of decline, and international market demand continues to be sluggish, my country's textile industry is facing severe challenges. At present, the profit margin of two-thirds of the enterprises in my country's textile industry is only about 0.6, and many enterprises are facing the risk of bankruptcy, which directly leads to the decline in market demand for cotton. This year, my country's major cotton-producing areas have achieved bumper harvests. However, affected by factors such as rising planting costs, shortage of acquisition funds, and especially the sluggish downstream textile industry, it is very difficult to acquire new cotton. At the same time, domestic cotton prices continue to fall. On October 31, my country’s cotton price index was 11,746 yuan/ton, a decrease of 336 yuan/ton from the previous week; the average price of China’s cotton price index in October was 12,322 yuan/ton, which was 12,322 yuan/ton, a decrease from September. It fell by 855 yuan/ton. Although the state has introduced purchase and storage plans to stabilize prices, the recovery of the cotton market still takes time
The spread of the financial crisis has put Chinese companies at a new starting point, accelerating the pace of elimination and mergers and acquisitions, and promoting the industrial The layout is optimized. Those powerful companies that focus on brand building, complete sales channels, and sufficient capital chain supply will become industry leaders.
In the past 30 years, Qipai Group, a representative company of Fujian style clothing, has grown from a tailor shop with less than 300 yuan in capital to a brand value of 7.816 billion, becoming an industry-leading brand ranked 77th among China's 500 most valuable brands. Chairman Hong Zhaoshe said at the group's 30th anniversary celebration: "The domestic demand situation in 2009 is still very good, and this momentum is a good situation for clothing consumption. The switch of export companies to domestic sales will have a certain impact on us, but not Very big. As far as the layout of Qipai channels is concerned, the financial crisis has brought us more opportunities. This year we will increase our efforts to continue expansion and make some adjustments to commodity prices to maintain the 2008 price system. , it does not mean that we respond to the market with low prices, but that our consumer groups with different strengths can buy their products suitable for their own classes.
"Forecasting 2009 Spring and Summer Fashion Trends under the Financial Crisis" has. Such a passage
As the global financial bubble bursts, life will become simpler and the state of mind will return to simplicity. Echoing this lifestyle and state of mind is the return to rural life and traditional skills. It's all about rustic expressions, such as tablecloth-style plaid cotton full of handwoven style, traditional British floral prints, pajama-style striped cotton and light blue denim, combined with old bleached, faded and crumpled colors. Natural primary colors, tea-stained white, earthy brown, bluebell blue to washed and faded effects; key items include oversized overalls, masculine shirts and pajama-style T-shirts, combined with peasant-style ruffles, lace, Embroidery and other handmade details. We can regard this trend as an evolution of the folk customs and rural trends of 2008 autumn and winter, and will eventually develop a new pastoral style with a nostalgic complex that is suitable for simple and rustic life in 2009 spring and summer.