1, the real estate market is overheated
Since 2003, house prices have soared, and the price increase in large and medium-sized cities across the country has been accelerating. Figure 1 shows that the real estate bubble is accelerating in 2003-2005. And some cities have exceeded people's expectations. For example, in 2006, the average price of commercial housing in Shanghai has reached 7038 yuan/square meter, and the ratio of house price to income is 1 1.35: 1, which seriously exceeds the internationally recognized standards of developing countries by 3-6 times.
Figure1:National Housing Sales Price Index in the Third Quarter of 2002-2006
2. Macro-control still needs to be improved.
Facing the overheated development of the real estate market, the government has issued a series of policies and measures since 2003, trying to reverse this situation through macro-control. The macro-control of real estate has achieved remarkable results in the short term, and all indicators have slowed down or declined to varying degrees after the control. However, according to the experience of previous macro-control policies, it is generally difficult to play a long-term role. At the beginning of 2006, the real estate market rebounded less than a year after the macro-control in 2005. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter of 2006, the sales prices of houses in 70 large and medium-sized cities in China increased by 5.5% year-on-year, with Beijing and Shenzhen having the biggest increases. In the first three months of 2006, the national real estate development investment increased by 20.2% year-on-year, and there were 12 cities with a growth rate of over 30%. From June 2006 to February 2006, the bank's credit for real estate development accounted for about 50% of the loan growth, and the real estate-related loans of large state-owned commercial banks also accounted for 20%-30% of the total loans. Credit provided 27% of the capital for investment in fixed assets, 8 percentage points higher than that in 2005. However, the data of June 5438+ 10 in 2007 showed that the real estate market did not cool down as expected in 2006 after experiencing the depression regulated by the "National Six Articles". From June 5438 to February 2006, the sales price of new commercial housing in 70 big cities nationwide increased by 5.4% year-on-year, with an increase of 0.2 percentage point over the previous month, and the increase in Beijing was as high as 10.4%.
Second, China real estate macro-control problems.
The macro-control of real estate is carried out under the macro-economic background and established market system in China, and it faces many tests.
1. The contradiction between supply and demand in the real estate market has not been resolved, which affects the macro-control of real estate.
For a long time, China's land examination and approval procedures are cumbersome, the supply is small, and the tight land roots lead to the rise of land prices and house prices. At present, the cost of land is about 1/3- 1/4 of the cost of commercial housing, which has become one of the important reasons for the high housing prices.
2. It is difficult for the real estate market to cool down under the overall hot economic trend.
Since the late 1990s, China has implemented expansionary monetary and fiscal policies. With the continuous improvement of the annual growth rate of broad money and the continuous decline of interest rate, the reduction of investment cost leads to the continuous expansion of investment quantity and scale. The rapid growth of investment is reflected in the high growth rate of fixed assets. China's GDP growth started at 1998 and remained at 7%- 10%. In the same period, the growth rate of fixed assets remained at 20%-30%. Under the macro-environment of rapid economic growth and expanding investment in fixed assets, the impulse of real estate investment is hard to restrain, and the real estate price has become rigid downward because of the rising land transaction price. In addition, the overcapacity caused by over-investment in China's cement and steel industries in the past few years is difficult to digest in the short term, which has promoted the continuous increase of investment growth in the real estate industry in recent years.
3. The development environment of the real estate market is troubled by the income gap of urban residents.
The income growth rate of China residents is not as fast as the polarization between the rich and the poor. China's Gini coefficient has reached more than 0.46, exceeding the international standard of 0.3-0.4, and it is on high alert. The income of the middle class has dropped significantly, and the fruits of economic growth have flowed to the rich too quickly. On the one hand, high housing prices make it difficult for low-and middle-income people to buy houses, and housing demand is difficult to be met. Take the purchase of a 654.38+00,000 house in Shanghai in 2005 as an example. The repayment period is 25 years, and the annual interest rate is 5.508%. If the down payment is 300,000 yuan and the mortgage is 700,000 yuan, it will cost about 6.5438+0.3 million yuan in 25 years and 52,000 yuan every year. On the other hand, the rich have further accumulated wealth through this means, widening the gap between the rich and the poor, and hoarding behavior has continuously pushed up housing prices and people's expectations, which has intensified market turmoil. According to the survey of the Ministry of Construction, the proportion of speculative purchases of commercial housing in Beijing has reached 17% in 2004, and 48% of speculative purchases are vacant for growth. Despite many measures taken in 2005 and 2006, the vacancy rate remains high. Nationally, by the end of 2005, the vacant area of commercial housing in China had reached 26%, which seriously exceeded the international early warning standard of 10%. And by the end of July 2006, the vacant area of commercial housing in China reached 1.2 1 100 million square meters, up by 14.4% year-on-year. Among them, vacant commercial housing increased by 10.8% year-on-year. Data show that housing vacancy rate is rising again.
4. The expectation of reasonable supply and demand of real estate in the process of urbanization is magnified.
With the development of economy and the improvement of people's quality of life, the urbanization movement will be fully promoted, and the demand for urban housing will increase day by day. The employment of college students and migrant workers entering cities are all reasonable factors to promote the rise of housing prices in the process of urbanization. China's urbanization level reached 1.36% on average in the past 10 years, and it will take more than 20 years to reach the level of 75% in developed countries. It is predicted that the population of China may reach the peak of 65.438+0.6 billion by 2030. By then, the urban population will reach 654.38+02 billion. In 2006, the urban population of China was 577 million, and it will increase by 623 million by 2030. According to the 11th Five-Year Plan of 20 10, the per capita living area of urban residents in China will reach 30 square meters, and the newly added urban construction land will reach 779 million square meters every year. According to the recently published national urban per capita residential area of 26 1 1, it will reach 678 million square meters. It is reasonable for house prices to rise slightly when the supply is in short supply, but it has triggered unreasonable expectations of all parties for the rise in house prices, and the contradiction between supply and demand has been further amplified. First of all, the urbanization movement has intensified the psychological expectation of real estate developers for profiteering, leading to the imbalance of investment structure in some areas. Low investment in affordable housing and over-development of high-end and commercial housing not only lead to the rigid downward trend of high-end housing prices; It also makes it difficult for families who really need a house to buy a house because of the relative scarcity of affordable housing and the rising price supported by demand. Secondly, it triggered speculators' expectation of trading profits, which laid the curse for the bubble. In addition, unreasonable expected housing demand has been formed. According to the research report, the demand for buying a house in advance due to the expected price increase has accounted for 1 1.3% of the total real estate demand. This has further aggravated the excessive expectations of demand and profit.
5. Poor local implementation is an important reason why the effectiveness of macro-control is difficult to highlight.
Statistics show that in 2006, the national real estate development investment accounted for 9.26% of GDP, far exceeding the internationally recognized reasonable level of 5%. In some areas, the value is higher. Taking Shanghai as an example, the contribution rate of 200 1 real estate industry has reached about 6.4%, and it has increased rapidly at the rate of 10% every year in recent years. Through the development of related industries, its GDP has increased by more than 20%.
In the use of land resources, there are obvious signs of vassal economy everywhere. Since the 1990s, the financial power of local governments has been concentrated, and the extra-budgetary disposable income largely depends on land resources, which makes local governments have a serious dependence on extra-budgetary income from land leasing and sales. Some local governments use their control power to exchange economic growth during their term of office through illegal over-exploitation and high-priced land sales. "Bidding, auctioning and hanging" has become a good way for local governments to increase their income. Some areas also engage in "collecting taxes by rent" and illegally occupy farmland and farmhouses for real estate development. The statistical results show that in the first five months of 2006, the land illegal cases investigated and dealt with by the land and resources system involved a land area as high as 1224 1.7 hectares, up nearly 20% year-on-year. These illegal acts pose a severe challenge to the national land regulation and further threaten the effectiveness of real estate macro-regulation.
In terms of real estate development, some local governments, driven by the interests of economic growth, gave the green light to some developers' illegal activities and turned a blind eye to developers' actions of building villas and high-grade houses regardless of central regulation, resulting in the development and construction of affordable housing and ordinary houses being left out in the cold because of low profits.
6. Excess liquidity contributed to the real estate market.
In recent years, China's liquidity has been increasing. As of June 65438+February 2006, the difference between deposit and loan has reached 1 1 trillion yuan. In the past few years, the proportion of non-performing loans and bad debts of banks has been rising, and the capital adequacy ratio is difficult to meet the standards of the new Basel Accord. The huge capital demand for real estate development and personal housing loans is favored by the banking industry. Personal housing loans are highly sought after because of their low risk. In 2006, the loan balance has reached 65,438+0.99 trillion yuan, more than 65,438+0.998 times that of 2006. Because the housing, medical care, employment and other problems of residents have not been completely solved, it is difficult to stimulate domestic demand. A few years ago, the stock market was depressed, and it was difficult to find the flow of funds. Therefore, in addition to some funds deposited in banks, a large amount of funds poured into the property market.
7. The expectation of RMB appreciation in the international environment increases the difficulty of macro-control of real estate.
Under the expectation of RMB appreciation, real estate is sought after as RMB assets. As of April 23, 2007, the central parity of RMB exchange rate has risen to 1 USD 7.729 RMB, an appreciation of 4.7% compared with the beginning of the exchange rate reform in 2005. During this period, overseas institutions and individuals were very active in investing in real estate and buying real estate. With the help of foreign capital, it is inevitable that the price of real estate will rise. Some foreign investment banks such as Morgan and Deutsche have successively set up real estate development companies and financing companies with China real estate enterprises to invest in real estate development projects. As the expectation of RMB appreciation intensifies, it is difficult to restrain the enthusiasm of foreign capital to enter the China market in various ways in the short term.
In addition, the appreciation of the exchange rate reduces the possibility of raising interest rates. The low interest rate environment has further aggravated the overheated economy, and the dual factors of exchange rate and interest rate have contributed to the development of the real estate market, thus causing various pressures on the macro-control of real estate.
Three. Relevant policy suggestions
As a pillar industry with an important position and many related industries, the real estate market needs to effectively solve the housing needs of the people in macro-control, and all parties should coordinate and guide it for a long time.
1. Set long-term targets for real estate regulation and control, and guide short-term practice with long-term targets.
The macro-control measures of real estate need to grasp the relationship between supply and demand from the total amount. The relevant departments should make a reasonable total supply on the basis of effectively predicting the urbanization process, the driving effect on related industries and the real estate demand, and take this as the basis for formulating macro-control measures. Under the guidance of this goal, we should rationally use monetary policy and fiscal and taxation policy to improve the real estate market environment through taxation.
2. Increase information disclosure to provide effective information for residents to purchase houses.
Establish a fair and reasonable real estate transaction system, establish and improve the real estate market early warning and forecasting system, real estate statistical index system and information disclosure system, disclose information data such as land supply and transaction price of real estate residential projects, reasonably guide consumers' psychological expectations, and provide effective information for residents to buy houses and sell.
3. To strengthen the guidance of local macro-control under the central control, it is necessary to avoid one-size-fits-all and ensure the effective implementation of local governments.
On the one hand, it is necessary to guide local governments to formulate feasible plans suitable for real estate development in the region and accept the supervision of the central government. On the other hand, actively improve the basis for the formulation of land supply plans, and supervise and control local governments to over-approve or unconditionally tighten for economic growth. It is necessary to clarify the responsibility and benefit distribution of land compensation and demolition work, and at the same time actively seek new standards for local government performance evaluation.
4. Actively learn from successful experiences and explore the establishment of a multi-level housing system.
Actively learn from international cases that have successfully solved real estate problems, such as the public housing system in Hong Kong since 1954. Its multi-level social housing security system and multi-channel fund-raising methods can be used as an effective experience for China to build affordable housing, low-rent housing system and establish a dual market.
In short, on the issue of real estate macro-control, the central and local governments have unified their thoughts and performed their duties, fully realized the arduousness and long-term nature of real estate macro-control, not only focused on the adjustment of the real estate market itself, but also proceeded from the overall situation, fundamentally improved the macro-environment and micro-foundation of real estate market development, and constantly improved the policies and measures of real estate macro-control in the process, and finally established a systematic and long-term macro-control system to guide the long-term healthy development of China real estate market.