In the first quarter of 2022, my country’s total mortgage loans reached 53 trillion, and the per capita mortgage debt was 147,000. What does this mean?

At the end of the first quarter of 2022, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 53.22 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%. The total liabilities of Chinese residents exceeded 200 trillion, with per capita debt of 147,000 yuan, and the national savings rate increased from 51.8% to 51.8%. down to 45%.

The total market value of real estate in our country is on the order of 400 to 500 trillion. Let’s calculate it as 450 trillion. The total mortgage loan amount of 53 trillion is only 12%.

So, can young people with high debts still afford the future of real estate?

The mortgage problem is not today’s problem. It is the biggest problem that has troubled many people for a long time. In the context of the epidemic, it will soon become a systemic problem.

Under the influence of the epidemic, many people's income has been greatly affected, but their mortgage debt has not been reduced, and many people are unable to repay their loans regularly, which has affected their creditworthiness. Not to mention those who are unemployed.

In the past five years, the growth rate has been below double digits for the first time. People really cannot afford it and have no money! The current household leverage ratio has been at a high of 60% for the past three years, and it cannot rise! Since last year, the central bank has been continuously lowering reserve requirements and interest rates, and since last year, except for first-tier cities, almost all cities have relaxed controls. Not only that, but they have even started to implement policies such as 20% down payment, children buying houses, and using parents’ provident funds. Loans, deed tax exemption, etc. However, the mortgage data is still not available.

Since 2000, my country has been the world's largest saver. In 8 years, the savings rate has increased from 32% to 52%. During the same period, the world's savings rate was 27%, which is almost 2% of the world average. times. After the financial crisis in 2008, it has been falling, reaching 44% in 2020. Although it is still higher than the world level, the household debt ratio has soared from 18% to 56%. Now, the total debt of the Chinese people is 20 billion, and the per capita debt is 147,000.

Look at the mortgage situation in the past few years

In the first quarter of 2018, the balance of mortgage loans was 34 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 20.3%

In the first quarter of 2019, The balance of mortgage loans was 40 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%

In the first quarter of 2020, the balance of mortgage loans was 46 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%

In the first quarter of 2021, the balance of mortgage loans was 50 trillion , a year-on-year increase of 10.9%

In the first quarter of 2022, the mortgage balance was 53 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 6%.

According to the central bank’s survey of 30,000 urban residents, the average household debt ratio is 57%, of which 77% have mortgage loans, accounting for 75% of total liabilities.

See reality through data. 70% of the liabilities of Chinese residents are concentrated in mortgage loans. The pressure on mortgage payments is too great, especially due to the impact of the epidemic in the past two years. Everyone is holding on to their wallets tightly and not daring to spend a penny. Children’s education expenses and medical expenses are all big expenditure items. Cutting off income means cutting off cash flow, which means that your house becomes an auction house. Became a bank worker.

For young people who have not yet bought a house, it is even more difficult. The thought of buying a house may be difficult to come up with. Today's young people would not even dare to think about it without the help of their families. If young people don’t take over, why will housing prices rise? How to sell a house? Even if it rises, it is still in the core areas of first-tier cities. This is beyond the reach of ordinary people, and they dare not even think about it.

What is the significance of debt per capita? Actually it doesn't make much sense. The supply of houses currently exceeds the demand, mainly because the prices are too high. Today's young people are no longer so obsessed with whether to buy a house or not. A stable job and salary income are the most important thing. National real estate regulation is mainly structural regulation.

The total mortgage loan amount is 68 trillion, and the interest rate exceeds 40%. How much pressure do Chinese people have on mortgage loans?

The total mortgage loan amount is 68 trillion, and the interest rate exceeds 40%. How much pressure do Chinese people have on mortgage loans?

How much pressure do Chinese people face on housing loans? Economist Professor Han Geng said that among all households in China, 56% bear housing loans, and 30%-70% of their per capita income is used to repay housing loans.

According to other data, at the end of the second quarter of this year, the balance of personal mortgage loans in my country was 38.86 trillion yuan. If personal provident funds and commercial loans are included, the principal plus interest to be repaid within the 25-year loan period will be approximately 38.86 trillion yuan. Together they can reach 68 trillion yuan, and the mortgage interest rate alone exceeds 40% of the volume of household housing loans.

So, how many families in China owe bank commercial loans? Data show that there are 495 million households in China, of which the number of urban households reaches 243 million. The number of households that owe bank loans is 43.4%, which is about 105 million households. It can be seen that the total number of households in China that owe bank commercial loans is also very large. The data also shows that the average household wealth in China is more than 3 million yuan, and real estate accounts for 77% of the total household wealth, and the other 23% is considered assets. But among this kind of real estate, a large part of them owe bank loans that have not yet been repaid.

In fact, due to the main reason for the rise in housing prices across the country, more than 90% of home buyers in China are carrying debt, which has led to Chinese families being under heavy loan pressure. This is mainly reflected in the following: The following three aspects:

First, most of the households buying houses in China have to repay more than 40% of their monthly income, which is about 4,000-5,000 yuan, and the remaining per capita income is enough to maintain Daily expenses. Under such circumstances, the quality of life of home buyers has dropped significantly, so these days will continue for decades.

Second, after many Chinese families owe housing loans, they are prone to fall into a dilemma where they are afraid of being laid off, afraid of getting sick, afraid of starting their own business, and afraid of having children. But in fact, who can guarantee that there will be no layoffs, illnesses, new coronavirus epidemics and other emergencies in the next few decades? Once you encounter a decrease in income and are unable to repay your housing loan, you have no choice but to terminate the loan. In recent years, as many people's incomes have dropped significantly, the number of former home buyers who have chosen to cut off their mortgages has continued to increase. Financial institutions are also distressed after taking over a large number of houses and can only entrust people to bid at auctions.

Third, the ability of ordinary Chinese people to resist risky consumption and consumption has been seriously reduced. Ordinary Chinese people have spent all their family savings and made a down payment, leaving little savings. However, in the next few decades, they will use their earnings to repay loans, and it will be difficult to save much money. If you encounter layoffs or illness, you will have no choice but to take advantage of others.

In addition, the heavy pressure on housing loans has seriously reduced the transaction ability of Chinese people, and many families are living a frugal life. Experts point out that India's current CPI index is 66%, while our country's CPI index is only 39%. As a result, it is difficult for China's economy to be promoted with the help of folk transactions.

How much pressure do Chinese people face on housing loans? The current total scale of household loans reaches 38.3 trillion yuan, and when coupled with loan interest rates in the next few decades, the combined scale of housing loans and interest rates reaches 68 trillion yuan. Such high housing loan pressure will significantly reduce the quality of life of families buying houses worth over 100 million yuan, and significantly weaken the ability of consumer services to withstand risks. The people who really make money from mortgage interest rates are usually financial institutions, real estate developers, etc. This situation must be distorted, otherwise it will have long-term adverse effects on our country's society and economy.

The average housing loan balance per household

The average housing loan balance per household is 18.9 trillion yuan

At the end of 2022, the real estate development loan balance was 12.69 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7 %, the growth rate was 1.5 percentage points higher than the end of the third quarter and 2.8 percentage points higher than the end of the previous year. The balance of personal housing loans was 38.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, and the growth rate was 10 percentage points lower than the end of the previous year.

On February 3, the People's Bank of China released a statistical report on the loan investment direction of financial institutions in the fourth quarter of 2022. It showed that at the end of 2022, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions was 213.99 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%; The annual RMB loans increased by 21.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.36 trillion yuan year-on-year.

__Among them, the growth rate of real estate loans fell, while the growth rate of real estate development loans increased. Data show that at the end of 2022, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 53.16 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, 6.5 percentage points lower than the growth rate at the end of the previous year; the annual increase was 721.3 billion yuan, accounting for 3.4% of the increase in various loans during the same period.

__At the end of 2022, the balance of real estate development loans was 12.69 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. The growth rate was 1.5 percentage points higher than the end of the third quarter and 2.8 percentage points higher than the end of the previous year. The balance of personal housing loans was 38.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, and the growth rate was 10 percentage points lower than the end of the previous year.

__At the same time, the growth rate of household operating loans continued to pick up, while the growth rate of household consumption loans fell. At the end of 2022, the balance of domestic and foreign currency household loans was 74.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. The growth rate was 1.8 percentage points lower than the end of the third quarter and 7.1 percentage points lower than the end of the previous year. The annual increase was 3.83 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 40,900 yuan. billion.

__At the end of 2022, the balance of household operating loans in local and foreign currencies was 18.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, 0.4 percentage points higher than the end of the third quarter, and 2.6 percentage points lower than the end of the previous year; an annual increase of 2.68 trillion yuan yuan, an increase of 79.3 billion yuan year-on-year. The balance of household consumption loans (excluding personal housing loans) was 17.25 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%. The growth rate was 1.3 percentage points lower than the end of the third quarter and 5.4 percentage points lower than the end of the previous year. The annual increase was 675.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 675.5 billion yuan. An increase of 764.6 billion yuan. At the end of the second quarter of 2022, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions was 206.35 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%.

2. In the first half of the year, my country’s GDP was 56.2642 billion yuan. At the end of the first quarter, China's household sector leverage ratio was 62.1%.

We can draw two pieces of information from this:

1. Household loans account for about 35.51% of the total loans.

2. The household leverage ratio is the ratio of the total debt of the household sector to GDP. 62.1% means that the total debt of residents accounts for more than 60% of GDP.

The International Monetary Fund believes that a residents’ leverage ratio of more than 65% will affect financial stability. At present, my country’s residents’ leverage ratio is close to or even exceeds it.

Residents’ liabilities are mainly mortgage loans.

Data from the central bank show that the balance of personal housing loans was 38.86 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, and the growth rate was 5.1 percentage points lower than the end of the previous year.

Generally speaking, this growth rate is higher than the GDP growth rate, but lower than the previous growth rate of mortgage loans. The main reasons are:

1. The current household debt ratio is at a high level, and it will continue to grow. Space is limited.

2. The property market is relatively cold, housing prices have dropped, and residents’ enthusiasm for buying houses has declined.

Data from the central bank also shows:

At the end of the second quarter of 2022, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 53.11 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, which was 3.7 percentage points lower than the growth rate at the end of the previous year. Among them, the balance of real estate development loans was 12.49 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%, and the growth rate was 1.1 percentage points lower than the end of the previous year.

Real estate loans include development loans and mortgage loans. In the past year or two, due to the liquidity crisis of real estate companies that has occurred from time to time and the onset of winter in the property market, the funds that real estate companies have obtained from banks have significantly decreased.

The Politburo meeting on July 28 mentioned: It is necessary to stabilize the real estate market, adhere to the positioning that houses are for living in, not for speculation, implement policies according to the city, make full use of the policy toolbox, and support To meet the demand for rigid and improved housing, we must consolidate the responsibilities of local governments to ensure the delivery of buildings and stabilize people's livelihood.

The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission also expressed its support for local governments to do a good job in "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings" and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

It can be expected that the financing of real estate companies should improve in the future. After all, the real estate market is too important, not only involving people's livelihood, but also affecting the overall economic stability.

How many billions were sold in real estate in 2010?

In 2010, real estate sales were more than 5 billion. Because real estate increased by 5.2 billion, plus profits, it equals 5.4 billion.

This ends the introduction of China’s total real estate loans and the total real estate loans of 460 trillion. I wonder if you found the information you need?