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How risky is a down payment loan? What are officials worried about?

Shanghai, Shenzhen and many other cities have revealed that real estate agencies provide down payment loans to home buyers. After commercial banks reduced the down payment ratio to 20%, real estate agencies provided down payment loan products, which is equivalent to allowing home buyers to actually enjoy zero down payment, or pay 5% to 10% of the down payment, and make up the rest through borrowing.

As a product that provides loans for home buyers’ down payments, down payment loans help home buyers make up for the shortfall in the down payment, and will be repaid after the customer has sufficient funds or the property appreciates. Taking a property worth 1 million yuan as an example, a down payment of 200,000 yuan is required. If the home buyer only has a down payment of 100,000 yuan, he can obtain a loan of 100,000 yuan through a down payment loan to successfully complete the home purchase. The leverage ratio even reaches 1:10.

This type of "leveraged" home purchase method with the help of Internet finance is exactly the same as the "subprime loans" in the United States back then, which greatly increased real estate financial risks. For example, for a 10 million house in Shenzhen, a 20% down payment is 5 times the leverage, and 20% of 2 million, with off-market capital allocation, can reach 1.8 million. In other words, using 200,000 to leverage 10 million, This is equivalent to using a leverage ratio of 50 times, which far exceeds the leverage ratio before US subprime mortgages.

Some voices accuse these products of providing leveraged funds for real estate speculators, which to a certain extent contributes to the booming housing market. The characteristics of this credit consumption model have seriously distorted the supply and demand relationship in the property market. If China’s housing market boom in previous years was generated by the relationship between supply and demand, such as stable household income (good employment prospects), generous savings and purchasing power, then this round is more similar to the role of off-market capital allocation in the stock market. consequences.

The 'down payment loan' products provided by real estate intermediaries and real estate development companies in cooperation with P2P platforms not only increase the leverage of residents to purchase houses, weaken the effectiveness of macroeconomic control policies, and increase financial risks, It also increases risks in the real estate market.

Over the years, China's housing prices have been rising, which has led to people's psychological expectations that they will continue to rise, forming a strong speculative mentality. Against the backdrop of global central banks continuing to lower interest rates, house prices rising day by day, and huge profits from buying and selling houses, more and more speculators are entering the market, and the "dog chasing its tail" phenomenon in finance has emerged: when house prices rise, land is pushed Prices rise, and the rise in land prices in turn drives up house prices. The dog turns faster and faster - house prices are getting higher and higher, and home buyers need to come up with more and more funds, and the loan limit is getting higher and higher. If most people use loans to buy houses even for the down payment, over-issuance of money will be inevitable. In the end, it is the economy itself that will suffer.

Central Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said at a press conference that customers’ down payments cannot be borrowed. Borrowed down payments change the ratio of borrowings to own capital, and also change the future repayment ability. The customer's monthly payment not only has to repay the bank, but also requires the down payment of the loan first. "From a bank's point of view, if you don't have enough understanding of your customers, you will take too much risk. From a bank's internal management point of view, the operation is also wrong."

Zhou Ogawa also said that on the one hand, we should pay attention to whether P2P and other platforms have the relevant qualifications for lending and other businesses, and on the other hand, pay attention to their sources of funds. If funds entrusted by some people are used, the direction of the fund investment must be explained to the entruster and whether it will bring huge risks to the investor.

On March 12, at the press conference of the Press Center of the Fourth Session of the 12th National People's Congress, Pan Gongsheng, deputy governor of the Central Bank and director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, made a clear statement on issues such as "down payment loans": " We will work with relevant departments, combined with the upcoming special rectification activities on Internet finance, to clean up and rectify real estate intermediaries, real estate development companies and the financial businesses they cooperate with P2P platforms to crack down on down payment loan financing, Increasing the leverage of home purchases and violating housing credit policies in disguise.”

According to reports, some down payment loan platforms in Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other places have been subject to regulatory inspections and have suspended their operations since the 8th.

(The above answer was published on 2016-03-15, please refer to the actual relevant current home purchase policies)

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