The reporter from china securities journal recently learned that the pilot project of transferring single-family non-performing loans to the public and batch personal non-performing loans is just around the corner. The industry believes that the regulatory move will unblock the disposal policy of non-performing assets, and it is expected that the pace of bank non-performing assets disposal will accelerate in the second half of the year. Due to the lag of bad risk exposure, the pressure of bank asset quality control still exists in the second half of the year, especially the credit risk in small and medium-sized housing enterprises, export-oriented enterprises and small and micro enterprises.
Bad disposal efforts have increased.
A spokesman for the China Banking Regulatory Commission recently stressed that we should resolutely control all kinds of whitewashing statements, urge banks to classify real assets, truly expose non-performing assets, and make full provision. We will unblock policy blockages such as write-off of non-performing assets and batch transfer and disposal of debt-paying assets, and guide banks to increase the intensity of non-performing disposal in various ways.
Recently, the regulatory authorities issued the Notice on Carrying out the Pilot Work of Non-performing Loans Transfer (Draft for Comment) and the Pilot Implementation Plan of Bank Non-performing Loans Transfer to relevant institutions, and it is clear that the pilot project of transferring non-performing loans from one household to the public and individuals in batches will be carried out. At the same time, the Notice emphasizes that it is strictly forbidden to sign drawer agreements or repurchase clauses outside the transfer contract to prevent false statements, false transfers and evasion of debts. , shall not be in violation of the provisions of the interest transfer or asset transfer to the debt related parties.
Shen Juan, chief analyst of the big financial industry of Huatai Securities Research Institute, predicts that the strengthening of loan write-off in the second half of the year is mainly based on three factors: First, the impact of the epidemic has a lagging effect, and the bad exposure is gradually accelerating; Second, supervision guides the banking industry to "do what it can" for non-performing loans, emphasizing the need to improve the ability to write off and dispose of non-performing assets; Third, the bank's provision coverage ratio is relatively high, and the disposal space is large. At the end of the first quarter, the provision coverage ratio of commercial banks reached 1.83%.
Bao Zuming, director of Zhejiang Banking Insurance Regulatory Bureau, stressed that banks must seriously go deep into loan enterprises, understand the order of enterprises, quantitatively assess the degree of each enterprise affected by the epidemic, and make accurate judgments on the future. To prevent the short-term impact of the epidemic, all enterprises are classified as bad.
The second and third quarters are important observation points.
Shen Juan said that at present, there is a certain differentiation in the exposure of retail to corporate risks. Retail exposure is earlier, and the lag of corporate badness is more obvious. Subsequent asset quality pressure still exists, and the second and third quarters are important observation points.
Chen Liang (a pseudonym), the head of a secondary branch of a big bank in Zhejiang, said that as of the end of May, the NPL ratio of the bank was 0.48%, and the NPL increased by 654.38+62 billion yuan, an increase of 26 million yuan year-on-year. The new defects are mainly concentrated in personal and card business, accounting for 97.67%. He admits that there is a lag in the occurrence of non-performing loans at this stage, and it is expected that the bank's non-performing loan ratio will increase in the second half of the year.
The head of South China Branch of a joint-stock bank told china securities journal that due to the consideration of credit risk, the bank's loans to small and micro enterprises have mostly adopted the mode of cooperation with policy guarantee companies since the first half of the year. "If there is a flaw, the guarantee company will bear 80% and the bank will bear 20%. In this way, the guarantee company has another credit risk check. It is estimated that by the end of the second quarter, our annual micro-loan delivery index will be completed, and we will mainly do a good job in loan management in the second half of the year. "
A person from the risk management department of a big bank in Central China said that the asset quality of the bank was controllable in the first half of the year, mainly for the control of guarantee chain, guarantee circle and over-investment. "Affected by the epidemic, it is expected that the downstream export-oriented enterprises will shrink and be transmitted to the upstream in the second half of the year. At the same time, the shift of export-oriented enterprises to domestic sales also has a certain squeezing effect on the original domestic sales enterprises, but our local manufacturing industry is scattered, small in scale and easy to control asset quality. "
Pay attention to risks in areas such as small and medium-sized housing enterprises.
Experts said that the credit risks that may be caused by some areas of commercial banks need to be focused on. Zhao, a senior researcher at the Financial Research Center of the Bank of Communications, said that the risk transmission caused by the acceleration of bond default has increased, and the asset quality of small and micro enterprises needs close attention, and small and medium-sized housing enterprises are facing greater debt repayment pressure.
Zhao stressed that with the gradual mitigation of the epidemic and the delayed release of housing demand, the overall credit level of large housing enterprises is relatively stable. However, due to high leverage ratio, weak operating ability, slow sales growth and tight financing environment, small and medium-sized housing enterprises will face the pressure of further tight operating cash flow and greater debt repayment pressure. Considering that negative factors will still exist in the short term, we need to be alert to the credit risk of small and medium-sized housing enterprises in the future.
According to the S&P global rating report, the remarkable sales growth of China real estate developers in recent years depends on the contribution of joint venture projects to some extent. However, the operational risks and financial risks faced by the joint venture model are rising. If such debts are included in the penetration index in proportion, the credit status of developers may be under pressure.
In addition, the possible credit risk of external demand-oriented enterprises also needs attention. Shen Juan analyzed that since April, the credit spreads of external demand-oriented industries such as ports, commerce, computers and automobiles have risen sharply, and it is expected that external demand-oriented industries will be greatly affected by overseas epidemics. In the second and third quarters, it is necessary to focus on the public external demand-oriented industries, and the subsequent progress of overseas epidemics may increase the uncertainty of their asset quality risks.