In the second half of last year, especially after June 2 10, Hefei launched the "most severe purchase restriction order in history", and the real estate market quickly fell into a cold state from the hot state of high temperature, with prices falling continuously and transaction volume shrinking continuously. According to the introduction of real estate agents, the current housing prices in Hefei have generally dropped 15% ~ 20%, while the housing prices in some communities have actually dropped by 50% and the prices have been halved.
Hefei, as the sub-central city of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, is in close competition with Shanghai, Hangzhou, Nanjing and other neighboring cities. Its economic aggregate and population capacity are small, and its population appeal is not so strong, so the house price has been tepid for a long time. But why did the price rise so quickly and suddenly since last year? What is the reason behind it?
Financial real estate speculators "admire high loans" staged "empty gloves and white wolves"
Li Wenjie, a native of Hefei, told China Economic Weekly that the housing prices in the provincial capital Hefei have been "low-key" for many years. In 2008, when the house price in Nanjing, a neighboring city, exceeded 10,000 yuan/square meter, the house price in Hefei was still hovering between 3,000 yuan and 5,000 yuan/square meter, and it was not until 20 15 that the house price in Hefei exceeded 10,000 yuan. "At that time, I felt that the house price of 10,000 yuan per square meter was too high, which was unacceptable for a while. In fact, the surrounding cities have already gone to 30,000 to 40,000. " Li Wenjie said.
In 20 16, the long-dormant housing prices in Hefei ushered in an unimaginable skyrocketing. Mr. Zhang, a citizen of Hefei, told the reporter: "When it rose the most last year, the house price rose by 200~300 yuan/square meter when I crossed a street. It has been rushing to the number one position in the world without restraint, which is incredible. "
There is always a reason to deviate from the normal track. Wang Tao, the head of a large local real estate agency in Hefei, told the reporter of China Economic Weekly that "real estate speculators" from all over the country gathered in Hefei last year, and wherever they went, it was like "the flood soared, the house price rose rapidly, and the water rose."
According to Wang Tao's observation and records, there were two types of "real estate speculators" in Hefei property market last year, one was "financial real estate speculators" and the other was "mainstream real estate speculators".
"Financial real estate speculators" come alone or in groups. Last year, there were few houses and many "real estate speculators", so these real estate speculators took over all the intermediary houses, and then "highly appraised and loaned" these houses through the bank, and continuously took more money out of the bank to invest in real estate speculation.
Wang Tao said that they did a number of such businesses last year, including a "real estate speculators" from Zhejiang, and four people formed a team. There are several companies behind them to sponsor some of their funds to pay the down payment for real estate speculation, and then divide the money in proportion. At that time, they asked for 20 sets at once, and asked the intermediary to help calculate the down payment, monthly payment and how much money they could get from the bank. They don't have high requirements for the quality of the house, they just want to find a house with a large area, so that they can get more money from the bank. Such "financial speculators" belong to speculators who play the financial edge ball.
Wang Tao told China Economic Weekly that most of these "real estate speculators" don't need to pay their own money, and they can make more money if they do well. He remembers very clearly that a "financial real estate speculators" used this method to set out 200,000 cash after some operations.
It is understood that "high evaluation and high loan" refers to the evaluation of the value of the house through relationships. For example, a real estate speculator took over a house with a market value of 6.5438+0.5 million yuan from an intermediary. He asked the consortium behind him to pay, and then found a relationship to overestimate the value of the property to 6.5438+0.5 million yuan. According to the general bank standard, with a loan of 70% of the house value, he can get 6.5438+0.05 million yuan from the bank.
Wang Tao said that at that time, the procedures for handling these second-hand housing loans were accelerated and one set was completed within one month. The house taken over by the "real estate speculators" is just there waiting for appreciation. It is understood that these houses were traded in April and May last year, and the prices were relatively low when they were bought. At present, these houses have not been sold, and they are still waiting for the price increase. Because the price was low at first, the average price was about 654.38+0 million yuan per square meter. According to the current price of 654.38+0.5 million ~ 654.38+0.6 million per square meter, a square meter can earn about 5,000 yuan, and a suite can earn 500,000 ~ 600,000 yuan.
A staff member of Hefei Chain Home said that the "real estate speculators" who used this "financial game" to speculate in real estate in Hefei last year did not even look at the house that the intermediary helped find, paid directly and entrusted the real estate agent with full authority.
Another "real estate speculators" is the "mainstream real estate speculators". They join hands with each other to buy houses, monopolize houses, control the supply of houses, and then raise prices. This kind of "real estate speculators" have higher requirements for housing quality, focusing on greening and huxing. Most of them join hands to buy the whole building, the whole unit or the whole floor, which is convenient for negotiation and price reduction. Once they start, they will rent these rooms into small single rooms, or rent them to others together, and use the rent to offset the monthly payment, and then wait for the price increase to reach their satisfactory income before selling them.
The "real estate speculators" personally described the real estate speculators' routine: organizing groups to control the supply of housing, agreeing to sit on the ground and starting at a price, and using the media to create momentum.
When the reporter interviewed in Hefei, he met Guo Wenqiang, a "real estate speculators". He said that in 20 15 years, the price of Hefei lakeside plate rose very slowly. At the beginning of the year, the average price was 7,000 yuan/square meter, and it only rose to 8,000 ~ 9,000 yuan/square meter at the end of the year, and it only rose to less than 2,000 yuan/square meter a year.
Guo Wenqiang analyzed that compared with neighboring cities such as Nanjing, Hefei's housing price was a relatively backward city before this round of skyrocketing, so last year, this low-priced property suddenly flooded into many "real estate speculators", constantly making great efforts to speculate, gradually pushing up housing prices in the rotation of the plate, and suddenly overdrawn the increase of Hefei's housing prices for several years, resulting in abnormal housing prices and abnormal plate structure.
Guo Wenqiang believes that the plate that led Hefei's housing prices last year was Binhu, which is also the biggest culprit in the rapid rise of housing prices. 20 15 these "real estate speculators" went to the lakeside plate to buy a number of houses, with an average price of about 8,000 yuan/square meter, which is available in every community. Since then, various "real estate speculators" have swarmed in and relayed speculation. Everyone told each other that no one was selling, and most of the houses in this sector were controlled, waiting for opportunities to speculate.
Since then, there are no new houses for sale in the lakeside plate, and the houses are basically controlled by these "real estate speculators". Controlling the house is not the goal, but making money through real estate speculation is the ultimate goal. So after a while, the "real estate speculators" suddenly released four or five houses, directly hanging out the price of10.3 million yuan/square meter, and the house price went up. "This price is definitely high." Guo Wenqiang said that this is to stimulate users who just need it. Next, they posted advertisements everywhere, using various media to create momentum, and the surrounding intermediaries also hanged a price of 6.5438+0.3 million yuan/square meter.
March 20 16 16, a sales department in Hefei binhu recognized the site, and the site was once chaotic due to too many buyers. Because I was afraid of many people, I stopped subscribing at 4: 30 in the afternoon, and the security guard closed the door before two o'clock and refused to let me in.
The "real estate speculators" know very well that no one will buy this price. After waiting for ten and a half days, three or four suites were hung on the plate, and the price was10.2 million yuan/square meter, which soon disappeared after coming out. It is hard to say whether it is really sold, but the market has been driven. In this way, the "real estate speculators" directly raised the house price from 8,000 yuan/square meter to 1.2 million yuan/square meter, and even the middle price range and price increase process of1.0 million yuan were omitted. After that, seven or eight sets of houses 1.3 million/square meter were hung in succession, which naturally disappeared soon. Just need customers to see that house prices have risen so much that they dare not wait and see, and they all went to buy them. As a result, there is no housing. The "real estate speculators" have taken control of the saleable houses and directly reported the price to 1.5 million ~ 1.6 million yuan/square meter. In this way, the mainstream "real estate speculators" quickly raised the price of the lakeside plate through the monopoly of the plate housing. At the peak, they actually fired the lakeside house price to a high price of 22,000 ~ 23,000 yuan/square meter.
Guo Wenqiang said that after the above-mentioned housing speculation, the "real estate speculators" began to take turns to speculate on the surrounding related housing. In this way, under the repeated speculation of "real estate speculators", the house price in Hefei rose wildly at 20 16.
The "purchase restriction order" was introduced, and the prices of some sectors were halved.
"Shooting the first bird", the rapid rise of Hefei property market quickly attracted a new policy of "restricting purchases". On the evening of 2065438+0610.2, 16, the Hefei Municipal Government held an emergency press conference to announce the control measures of/KLOC-0.0, which mainly included: Hefei will increase the supply of residential land; Implement purchase restrictions within the urban area; Suspension of off-site provident fund loans; Strengthen the record management of clearly marked commercial housing sales.
After the introduction of the "most restrictive purchase order in history" in Hefei, the house price in Hefei quickly turned into a downward trend and fell to the beginning of May this year.
Hefei real estate industry insiders believe that Hefei's housing prices were first speculated from the lakeside plate, so the lakeside plate has the largest moisture and foam. Since the regulation of Hefei property market in June last year, the intensity has been increasing, and real estate speculators began to throw a lot of houses. When the price of the house by the lake is still hovering at a high price of 22,000 ~ 23,000 yuan/square meter, the "real estate speculators" will sell at a price of 20,000 yuan/square meter. The house price of the lakeside plate also fell rapidly because of the selling of the "real estate speculators". According to some real estate agents in Hefei, the Binhu plate has the largest decline, with most of the decline reaching 40% ~ 50%, which is close to half price. During the Spring Festival this year, the opening price of a building in Binhu was 1. 1.000 yuan/square meter, which was more than half lower than the highest price of 22,000 ~ 23,000 yuan/square meter in surrounding buildings. It's really "success is Xiao He, failure is me".
The above-mentioned real estate industry insiders believe that after the purchase restriction, Hefei housing prices reached freezing point at the end of last year and the beginning of this year. A few days after the Spring Festival, few people look at the house and buy a house. Although it is an individual phenomenon that the price of lakeside plate is halved, it is an indisputable fact that the housing price in Hefei is low.