This article is the last article in Economic Review in 2020, which tells the overall change of bank management style in 2020. This change is not only at the level of commercial banks, but also at the level of central banks. This change is bound to have a far-reaching impact on the economic trend of China in 20021year.
The first thing I give here is the investment data of bank loans. Pay attention to the most important change: in 2020, the proportion of loans invested in manufacturing finally began to rise.
In 20 19, the medium and long-term loans of manufacturing industry accounted for 5.80%, and will increase to 6. 17% in 2020. This is the first increase in the proportion of manufacturing loans in the past 10 years. You know, China didn't wake up until the 20 18 trade war, and finally began to realize that manufacturing was king. Financial speculation and real estate development cannot stand on the background of the reshuffle of the world economy. However, it is not so easy to change the route immediately and promote the flow of funds from finance and real estate to manufacturing, so the proportion of manufacturing loans continues to shrink in 20 19, which is the inertia of financial operation.
Of course, China's top management can't bear this inertia, especially under the background of COVID-19's control in early 2020, when the manufacturing industry was in short supply. If we don't use powerful means to push capital into the industrial field to save the struggling manufacturing enterprises, then China's economy really can't continue. Thus, in March 2020, President Sun of CITIC Bank was pushed to the front desk and became a negative textbook.
Pay attention to the red paragraph above, "seriously violating the decision-making and deployment of financial services to the real economy, restricting and reducing manufacturing loans." Ladies and gentlemen, not lending to the manufacturing industry may even constitute a criminal offence, which is enough for the CPC Central Commission for Discipline Inspection to intervene. This action shocked all financial practitioners in the country on the spot. The whole financial circle began to turn, from looking down on manufacturing bosses to asking for loans from manufacturing bosses. Manufacturing bosses were unwilling to lend less, crying and even giving gifts to these bosses in turn, hoping to lend more. It is in this context that the proportion of manufacturing loans has finally shown an extremely rare upward trend. In absolute terms, the loan balance of manufacturing industry increased from 9.2 trillion of 20 1 1.0 trillion, with an absolute increase of 1.8 trillion and an increase of 19.6%, the highest increase in history. In the past, the loan balance of manufacturing industry only increased by 3-7% every year, which was really embarrassing. This 65,438+0.8 trillion manufacturing loans increased, accounting for 65,438+09.8 trillion of the total loans, reaching 9.65,438+0%, which is even more shocking. Almost every 65,438+00 yuan of loans, 1 yuan was given to the manufacturing industry, while in 2065,438+09, the proportion was only a pitiful 3.6%.
Another interesting change is that in 2020, banks did increase their loans to small and micro enterprises. The loan balance of small and micro enterprises increased from 23.26% in 20 19 to 23.93% in 2020. The absolute value of the loan balance of small and micro enterprises increased by 5.8 trillion yuan, far exceeding the previous annual increase of 3-4 trillion yuan.
Ladies and gentlemen, you must be clearly aware of one thing: there are reasons why banks are reluctant to lend to manufacturing and small and micro enterprises. According to the annual report data of major banks, from 20 10 to 20 19, the bad debt rate of manufacturing loans and small and micro enterprise loans is generally between 5-7%, which is already a very high bad debt rate. Real estate loans (including development loans and mortgage loans) are generally lower than 1%. Even for high-risk loans to farmers, rural areas and farmers, the bad debt rate is only about 2%. The bank's rule is that bad debts need to be traced back to everyone's responsibility in the loan approval chain, and it is a lifelong responsibility. Of course, in comparison, no one wants to lend money to manufacturing and small and micro enterprises. By 2020, the whole world will be closed, and people will die if they don't give blood to manufacturing and small and micro enterprises. The way of playing in Europe and America is that the government directly gives cash subsidies to enterprises with operational difficulties and individuals without livelihood. My country, China, does not implement this cash subsidy policy, but adopts an indirect way: under the greatest policy pressure, banks are required to increase loans to industry. In fact, banks bear the responsibility of subsidizing the industry, not the government.
Of course, the result of this subsidy is that the bad debt rate of the banking industry will rise sharply in 2020, while the profits will drop sharply. At present, the annual report data of major banks have not yet come out, but the quarterly report data of the first three quarters are very clear. For example, in the first three quarters of 2020, the profits of ICBC, Agricultural Bank, China Bank and China Construction Bank decreased by 9. 15%, 8.49%, 8.69% and 8.66% respectively. There is no doubt that this is the result of assuming the responsibility of subsidizing the industry.
Considering that this wave of bank loans to manufacturing and small and micro enterprises is the result of strong policy pressure, approval and risk control are bound to be relaxed, and it is conceivable that the bad debt rate will inevitably exceed the traditional range of 5-7%. We assume 65,438+00%, which is a relatively conservative estimate. The balance of new loans of 5.8 trillion small and micro enterprises is10% = 580 billion. This means that in 20021year, the banking industry will face 580 billion new bad debt risks. This has not counted the new bad debt risk brought by manufacturing enterprises above designated size that do not belong to small and micro enterprises. The two add up to more than 600 billion.
Crucially, bank subsidies to industry will not end in 2020. It is estimated that vaccines in COVID-19 will not be widely used until July and August of 20021year, which means that the banking industry will still take the responsibility for subsidies instead of the government for most of this year. In other words, the risk of bad debts in the banking industry will be further amplified. Of course, I personally like it. Banks have lived a good life for decades, and now it is time for banks to give back to the industry. Even if the whole banking industry falls into a zero-profit situation, it should be, and I support it with both hands and feet. My only suggestion is that as long as the comrades in the examination and approval process have no personal interests, they should not be responsible for their bad debts. This is also a little political protection for the relevant bank staff to bear the responsibility of industrial subsidies.
Second, how much do loans to small and medium-sized enterprises account for bank loans?
At present, the comprehensive credit granted by SMEs to banks is five years, and the current annual benchmark is 7.05. You can choose different repayment methods according to the specific situation of your enterprise, such as mortgage and revolving. And now there are basically fluctuations, and the specific fluctuations depend on how your business is doing. If you don't understand, you can consult again.
Three. What is the proportion of SME loans to bank loans?
Small and medium-sized enterprise loans account for a low proportion of bank loans, and banks should handle large loans through loan companies or through cooperation with banks. Maybe 7-3 points.